Who to Keep?

[Friarfan]

12 team, full PPR. QB, RB, WR, WR, TE and 2 Flex (so it tends to be a little WR heavy). We can keep between 0-3 and have a "supplemental" draft so that we all have 3 heading in to the start of the actual draft.

I've got 2 "no-brainers" - David Johnson and Odell Beckham

3rd keeper options: Travis Kelce, Deandre Hopkins

Or, I can just keep Johnson and Beckham and throw Kelce and Hopkins back and hope to get my hands on one of the rookies (Fournette, Mixon, McCaffery,etc.)

Would you keep Kelce, Hopkins or do you prefer any of the rookies over them? No telling yet who some of the already rostered players on other teams will be kept (Marshawn Lynch will also be available as he was not on a roster so he's eligible to be drafted).

[revo]

I'd easily take some of the rookies over those two. Fournette, Mixon and McCaffrey for sure. And if there will be other vets to choose, you probably can do better (can you even re-draft your own tossbacks?)

[Friarfan]

I'd easily take some of the rookies over those two. Fournette, Mixon and McCaffrey for sure. And if there will be other vets to choose, you probably can do better (can you even re-draft your own tossbacks?)

Yup, I'm thinking at least I'll be able to get back one of those two. I think I'd prefer Kelce. IMO, he's now the top TE (Gronk's injury history makes him scary for where he's drafted)

[revo]

Yup, I'm thinking at least I'll be able to get back one of those two. I think I'd prefer Kelce. IMO, he's now the top TE (Gronk's injury history makes him scary for where he's drafted)

Then do that. No need to get locked in on these two when there could be better.

[Erik]

Agree with Revo.

[Friarfan]

Thanks, dudes!

[Hornsby]

I don't know that you can do better...I'd keep Kelce, no guarantee that you'd get him back, or anyone better, right?

[revo]

I don't know that you can do better...I'd keep Kelce, no guarantee that you'd get him back, or anyone better, right?

With what we saw from Ezekiel Elliott last season, you wouldn't take a shot at getting Leonard Fournette (who was a better college talent) or the other two starting rookie RBs -- giving him at least a 25% shot of getting one of them -- or the returning Marshawn Lynch, over a tight end not named Gronk?

Flip in his two (Kelce and Hopkins) and he has a 50% chance of getting one of the rookies or Lynch or either of his two non-keepers. And then we don't know if there are other studs out there.

No way do I keep Kelce, whose ADP currently sits at 36, making him last of the 36 possible keepers.

[Friarfan]

With what we saw from Ezekiel Elliott last season, you wouldn't take a shot at getting Leonard Fournette (who was a better college talent) or the other two starting rookie RBs -- giving him at least a 25% shot of getting one of them -- or the returning Marshawn Lynch, over a tight end not named Gronk?

Flip in his two (Kelce and Hopkins) and he has a 50% chance of getting one of the rookies or Lynch or either of his two non-keepers. And then we don't know if there are other studs out there.

No way do I keep Kelce, whose ADP currently sits at 36, making him last of the 36 possible keepers.

Mostly agree with you accept that those rookie RBs don't have the perfect storm that Zeke had last year (talent + opportunity + monster OLine)

1. Fournette - Jax's Oline isn't Dallas' (not even close) and the job isn't his entirely. Although I don't expect Ivory/Yeldon to put up much of a fight.

2. McCaffery - Stewart isn't going away quietly. And, of all the talk of McCaffery's receiving potential, Newton hasn't been one to throw much to the Rbs in his career.

3. Mixon - Bernard and Hill still in the mix and there's talk of a major fire being lit under Hill. Also, that O-Line has gone through a re-org this off-season. Plus, that video of him going Mike Tyson on his GF....hard to think that might not happen again in the future.

4. Cook - The Vikes didn't sign Lat Murray for nuthin'. And, that O-Line...oof.

5. Hunt - May have the best opportunity as he only has Ware standing in his way. Lesser talent than those above but the opportunity and situation might be the best.

All that said, I love each and ever one of them for their talent but Zeke's season last year was special and can't really compare to this group.

Still, how would you rank those rooks? Add in some of the WRs as well: Corey Davis, Mike Williams, JuJu, John Ross...

[revo]

I wouldn't include Cook or Hunt in the mix for you. Or any other rookie besides the first three. Regardless of how Zeke did last year, these three deserve to be considered with your pick, also because of keeper merit for the following year.

[Friarfan]

I wouldn't include Cook or Hunt in the mix for you. Or any other rookie besides the first three. Regardless of how Zeke did last year, these three deserve to be considered with your pick, also because of keeper merit for the following year.

Thanks, Ed!

[Hornsby]

With what we saw from Ezekiel Elliott last season, you wouldn't take a shot at getting Leonard Fournette (who was a better college talent) or the other two starting rookie RBs -- giving him at least a 25% shot of getting one of them -- or the returning Marshawn Lynch, over a tight end not named Gronk?

Flip in his two (Kelce and Hopkins) and he has a 50% chance of getting one of the rookies or Lynch or either of his two non-keepers. And then we don't know if there are other studs out there.

No way do I keep Kelce, whose ADP currently sits at 36, making him last of the 36 possible keepers.

Nope, I pretty much agree with what FF said in his poet, Elliot was a perfect Storm last year, and Fournette isn't likely to be close, IMO. Same with Lynch...not a big fan of 31 YO running backs who've sat out a year due to lack of interest...and production his last active season.

5 out of Kelce's last 7 games were over 100 yards...I'll take that risk for a 27 year old just entering his prime.

[revo]

Nope, I pretty much agree with what FF said in his poet, Elliot was a perfect Storm last year, and Fournette isn't likely to be close, IMO. Same with Lynch...not a big fan of 31 YO running backs who've sat out a year due to lack of interest...and production his last active season.

5 out of Kelce's last 7 games were over 100 yards...I'll take that risk for a 27 year old just entering his prime.

It really doesn't matter what Zeke did last year or not. You have three RBs being handed starting jobs, who could easily hit the 1300-1500 total yard mark, and then would be Top 10 keepers (heck, Fournette is a Top 20 keeper now without a single NFL touch).

Tight ends are naturally capped in their production. The chances of any of these three rookies outgaining Kelce in yards is tremendous, IMO. To put my point into perspective, his teammate Spencer Ware outgained Kelce by 200 yards last year. And Ware didn't really have a great year!

Even if he doesn't land one of the rookie RBs, there still almost certainly will be others out there who are better.

And then let's mention Kelce may have a rookie QB throwing him the ball sooner rather than later.

There's just no way I'm keeping a tight end not named Gronk.

[Hornsby]

It really doesn't matter what Zeke did last year or not. You have three RBs being handed starting jobs, who could easily hit the 1300-1500 total yard mark, and then would be Top 10 keepers (heck, Fournette is a Top 20 keeper now without a single NFL touch).

Tight ends are naturally capped in their production. The chances of any of these three rookies outgaining Kelce in yards is tremendous, IMO. To put my point into perspective, his teammate Spencer Ware outgained Kelce by 200 yards last year. And Ware didn't really have a great year!

Even if he doesn't land one of the rookie RBs, there still almost certainly will be others out there who are better.

And then let's mention Kelce may have a rookie QB throwing him the ball sooner rather than later.

There's just no way I'm keeping a tight end not named Gronk.

You're leaving out the catches, and since most of us play in PPR leagues, that's extremely important. Kelce had 85 last season, that's going to be roughly double or more of what the average RB is going to get.

And there's really no guarantee that any of those RB's get your projected totals...that's pretty much max IMO.

And I'll take Kelce all day over Gronk and his annual injuries. He's had more catches than Kelce had last year only once in his career. He's had more yards than Kelce had twice in his career...and he's not getting any younger. And with the wealth of talent that Brady has to use in NE, I can see them using Gronk more judiciously these days.

[Erik]

DAL O-Line >>>> JAX O-Line. Barring something revelatory in TC/preseason, I doubt I'd take Fournette before the late 2nd round in a redraft, whereas I would have been happy to use a mid-first rounder on Elliott last year (never got the chance).