The Demise of the RB

[revo]

It amazes me how much football (and fantasy football) has changed in the last 10-15 years. The demise of the RB is obviously the biggest effect of these changes (which of course, coincides with the rise of the WR), but it's amazing how much they've dropped off.

In 2000, there were 23 RBs who eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing. Of those 23, 19 had 1,100+ rushing yards. In addition, 19 RBs had 250+ rushing attempts.

In 2015, there were SEVEN RBs who eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing. Of those 7, TWO had 1,100+ rushing yards. The same amount of TEs (2) had 1,100+ receiving yards(!!). Just 5 RBs had 250+ rushing attempts.


Obviously there are many reasons for the dropoff, most of which are well-known. 2015 also saw an increase in major injuries to elite RBs. Still, is this the end of the RB as a major force in fantasy? The RB/RB draft strategy is soooo 2000.

[revo]

Good stuff, Eddie. I guess you could make a scarcity argument for drafting a RB early, but I agree with you, personally: I'm focusing on WRs early at this point.

You could, but is this a similar argument to scarcity at TEs 10 years ago? Where getting the top guy was nice, but if the rest of the pack was so clumped together at a not so much lower level, why bother? Or was 2015 an injury-riddled anomaly of a year?

I have to admit I was stunned to see, when I researched today, the lack of 1,000 yard rushers. They're going extinct!

[In the Corn]

The other interesting to consider is the NFL is known to be a copycat league. With the Broncos winning the Super Bowl with stout D and a better running game than throwing game will other look to go back to a more balanced running and passing attack?

[revo]

The other interesting to consider is the NFL is known to be a copycat league. With the Broncos winning the Super Bowl with stout D and a better running game than throwing game will other look to go back to a more balanced running and passing attack?

I highly doubt it. A stout D, sure -- that's never changed, every team would love that. But Denver finished 17th in rushing this year and only suffered in the passing game because of ineffectiveness at the QB position.

All said, this was a pretty fluky win for Denver. They had a 59 point differential this year, which put them 6th in the AFC and 10th overall. I'm not sure other teams are trying to copy flukes!

[chancellor]

To be fair, it's also Seattle's M.O. to win with a running game and strong D. However, I think the NFL continues to be a passing league and that's not going to change any time soon.

m

And no one has mentioned Carolina yet - a team that made it to the SB with a terrible set of WRs, good RBs, and a great dual-threat QB. And a ferocious defense.

[griswold]

Let me confirm Ed's facts with this info that included in my Year in Review article for RB's:

In the annual review over the past couple of years, you can see the trends below regarding the decline of the super-stud backs (scoring based on PPR).

2002 – 2008 – Number of RB’s over 300 points in one season = 31 running backs
2002 – 2008 – Number of RB’s over 400 points in one season = 5 running backs

2014 – 2009 – Number of RB’s over 300 points in one season = 19 running backs
2014 – 2009 – Number of RB’s over 400 points in one season = ZERO running backs

2015 was no different with ZERO backs over 400 points and only ONE over 300 points (Devonta Freeman). Adrian Peterson was a distant second with 266.7 points.

In fact, there hasn’t been a 400 point running back since 2006, when Ladainian Tomlinson and Steven Jackson both did it!

[Erik]

The other interesting to consider is the NFL is known to be a copycat league. With the Broncos winning the Super Bowl with stout D and a better running game than throwing game will other look to go back to a more balanced running and passing attack?

Denver did it with a RBBC. Seattle will likely have one too with Lynch gone. There may be teams that start to run more, but it won't translate into more bellcow backs getting tons of yardage.

[revo]

Denver did it with a RBBC. Seattle will likely have one too with Lynch gone. There may be teams that start to run more, but it won't translate into more bellcow backs getting tons of yardage.

In fact, the average carries per team per game in 2015 was 26.3, which is not much lower than it was in any season over the last 25 years (typically 27-28 carries per game).