Super Bowl 50 Thread - Carolina vs. Denver

[revo]

I think the NFL should just keep the number system rather than revert back to Roman numerals. Some upcoming SBs will look ugly (Super Bowl LIX?)

[revo]

CBS is doing a bracket-based simulation of the previous 49 winners to determine which was the best SB winner of all time. They're using Strat-o-Matic as the simulator.

Here's the results through the 1st round:




My guess is that it will be the '85 Bears vs. the '75 Steelers.

[Mithrandir]

I usually see the 1978 Steelers as their best team.

[revo]

I usually see the 1978 Steelers as their best team.

Well, they had the '78 Steelers as the #19 overall seed, and they've already been KO'd in an upset by the #46 seed, the '06 Colts.

[Mithrandir]

Well, they had the '78 Steelers as the #19 overall seed, and they've already been KO'd in an upset by the #46 seed, the '06 Colts.

Bizarre.

[griswold]

I agree with Revo....the '85 Bears and '75 Steelers were dominant on both sides of the ball.

[madducks]

The 1976 team was the Steelers best and a favorite to win their third consecutive Super Bowl. But they lost their top two running backs (sound familiar?) and got bounced from the playoffs.

In addition to having two 1,000 yard RBs (Harris and Bleier in 14 games), their backup QB (Kruczek) went 6-0 while Bradshaw was injured. The defense allowed a total of just one TD over the final nine regular season games while posting five shutouts along with a pair of 3-point games and one 6-point game. Unfortunately there were no records kept for sacks in 1976 but i'm betting there were many by that defense.

[Mithrandir]

I think the '85 Bears would be my personal 2nd greatest of all time but they're in the same bracket as the '84 Niners. I don't think the Steelers teams can hold a candle to either of these, though. I'm already dubious of this bracket, given some kind of ridiculous (from my point of view) results in the first round.

The Steelers defense was just as good, if not better, than the Bears. And their offense was top notch too.

Mean Joe Greene, Jack Ham, Jack Lambert and Mel Blount on the same defense!!

[revo]

I think the '85 Bears would be my personal 2nd greatest of all time but they're in the same bracket as the '84 Niners. I don't think the Steelers teams can hold a candle to either of these, though. I'm already dubious of this bracket, given some kind of ridiculous (from my point of view) results in the first round.

Apparently they're only simming each game once, and whatever that outcome is it is. It clearly would be better if they used a Monte Carlo-type approach and simmed it 10,000 times.

[revo]

Mmm hmm.



Ah, that would be better. I wonder how they account for different eras, etc.? Or, for example, a team like the 2000 Baltimore Ravens that not only was perhaps the best defensive team of all time but was on such an amazing defensive roll coming into the Super Bowl.


Honestly, I think the 2007 Patriots might have been the best team ever assembled. Of course, they didn't win the SB so they're not in consideration here.

According to the Strat site, they do normalize the eras, but yeah, I highly doubt they take into account momentum. But then again, the 2011 Giants just beat the 1979 Steelers here, so who knows.

[revo]

Round 2 completed. I guess the '75 Steelers won't get there after all. And I also hadn't realized how dominant the 1991 Redskins were. I did a double-take when I saw they had them as the #2 overall seed:

[revo]

The 2008 Steelers not only beat the 1993 Cowboys (say what???) but also the 1975 Steelers (say whaaaaaaaat????).

According to pro-football-reference.com, the '08 Steelers have a SRS of 9.8 to the '93 Cowboys 9.6, so I could see that. But the '75 Steelers have a SRS score of 14.2, so they should've been soundly spanked by them.

[revo]

SRSly?






















(I have no idea what is....)

It's their Simple Rating System, which measures each team's overall strengths and you can then use (even across eras) as a "point spread." So the '75 Steelers were 'favored' by almost 5 points (14.2-9.8).

[revo]

Can you link the SRS scores? I can't find it.

Sure:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2015/

It's the SRS column, obviously. You'd need to click on 'previous season' to see prior years.

[revo]

I don't really get it. Check out 1976.

The 13-1 Raiders, fielding an all-time great team that won the Superbowl in dominant fashion, have an SRS of 8.5. The 11-3 Baltimore Colts, who got bounced in the first round of the playoffs in embarrassing fashion (40-14 blowout), have an SRS score of 9.8.

What is that score based upon?

Here's a post on it here:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=37

It has to do with points scored vs. points against per opponent, on a real week per week basis, which is then weighted by the opponent's Strength of Schedule. It's not precise, but they think it's a good enough formula.