2k16: First Round

[revo]

Fantasy Pros asked their top 5 rated experts to do a top 15 for next season, and here was their consensus (I assume PPR):

1 - Brown
2 - Bell
3 - OBJ
4 - Gurley
5 - Julio Jones
6 - David Johnson
7 - Freeman
8 - Peterson
9 - Hopkins
10 - Dez
11 - Allen Robinson
12 - Martin
13 - Charles
14 - Gronk
15 - Lamar Miller

My first thought is the drafters at the top have a huge advantage over the bottom half -- getting Brown/Beckham/Jones + a second rounder seems light years better than Doug Martin + Lamar Miller.

[Erik]

It seems like that now, but who knows next August, much less next December.

In PPR, if I have a top 3 pick, I'm taking Brown, OBJ or Julio. They provide such a huge advantage in that format.

[Erik]

What kind of crack do you need to be smoking to pick Freeman over AP?

Lots of FF players love the shiny new toys, including some of the "experts."

There is also a fear that one year AP is going to hit the wall and fall off a cliff, and no one wants to be stuck with him when that happens. I don't think it will be next year, though.

[revo]

What kind of crack do you need to be smoking to pick Freeman over AP?

Well, Freeman was the highest scoring RB in PPR leagues this season by a wide margin, and outscored Peterson by 55 pts. Plus, Freeman will be 24 years old and Peterson will be 31, which is old by RB standards. I'm not saying I would take Freeman over him, but I don't think it's a huge stretch.


And it goes to show you how gawd-awful RBs were when Miller is considered a Top 15 pick after a season where he had a combined 1,250 yards. I get that he's a free agent and may end up in a better spot than MIA, but 1,250 combined yards is really nothing special.

[Erik]

It was a disastrous year for RBs. All taken in the first or early 2nd didn't perform up to expectations other than AP. Many got hurt.

Freeman screams Jeremy Hill/CJ Anderson part 2. He ran off a bunch of great games but tailed off in the latter part of the season. He benefited from Tevin Coleman's injuries. I'm not predicting a total washout but I'd rather take my chances on Gurley or David Johnson, both of whom are more talented, if I had to go young RB in round 1.

[griswold]

What kind of crack do you need to be smoking to pick Freeman over AP?

I'm with Revo some in his analysis, but the big key was his 73 receptions this past season.

Only Danny Woodhead (81) and Theo Riddick (80) had more.

I was surprised by Miller in there as well, but he's a tremendous talent who was poorly used most of the time in 2015.

[griswold]

I'm sorry but I still can't buy into the Gronk in the 1st or 2nd rounds.

Here's the final PPR numbers for 2015:

Gronkowski,Rob NE 255.6 12 15 80 %
Reed,Jordan WAS 248.2 11 14 79 %
Walker,Delanie TEN 238.8 13 16 81 %
Barnidge,Gary CLE 237.3 12 16 75 %
Olsen,Greg CAR 229.4 11 16 69 %

While I'm not betting on Barnidge having another good season, Reed, Walker and Olsen all had consistency seasons in 2014 as well and should continue to be consistent contributors in 2016.

The fact that their total points aren't far behind Gronk tells me he's ranked too high as usual.

[revo]

Yeah, the disparity on Gronk wasn't as large as it has been in the past. Why take Gronk in the 1st round, putting yourself behind the 8-ball at many other positions, when you can take Delanie Walker in the 7th or 8th? The stark reality is you're leaving 500-1,000 yards on the table by taking Gronk in the 1st or 2nd.