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Stats to back up the strange Fantasy season that is 2015

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  • #1

    Stats to back up the strange Fantasy season that is 2015

    An article was put together to show the player owned percentage of the teams who qualified for the Championship round in the FFPC.

    Here's the link to the article: http://rotoviz.com/2015/12/player-ow...p-round-teams/

    However, here are the Top 20 players:

    NAME POS PCT.OWNED
    Spencer Ware RB 25.9% - Not drafted
    Devonta Freeman RB 22.0% - Probably around Round 5 as a RB2/3
    DeAndre Hopkins WR 18.5% - Top ranked
    Scott Chandler TE 18.0% - Not drafted
    Vance McDonald TE 17.8% - Not drafted
    Larry Fitzgerald WR 16.7% - Probably around Round 7/8 as a WR2/3
    Julio Jones WR 15.8% - Top ranked
    Tom Brady QB 15.5% - Drafted around Round 7/8 due to 4 game suspension
    Allen Robinson WR 15.1% - Probably around Round 4/5 as a WR2/3
    Brandon Marshall WR 14.3% - Probably around Round 4/5 as a WR2/3
    Jordan Reed TE 14.0% - Probably around Round 8/9 as a TE 1/2
    Delanie Walker TE 13.9% - Probably around Round 8/9 as a TE 1/2 (even though I had him ranked higher)
    Shaun Draughn RB 13.4% - Not drafted
    Rob Gronkowski TE 13.2% - Top ranked
    Gary Barnidge TE 13.1% - Not drafted
    Danny Woodhead RB 12.9% - Probably around Round 9/10 as a RB3/4 (even though I had him higher)
    Jeremy Langford RB 12.9% - Not drafted
    Tyler Eifert TE 12.9% - Top ranked
    Chris Ivory RB 12.7% - Probably around Round 4/5 as a RB2/3
    Antonio Brown WR 12.6% - Top ranked

    In summary:

    Not drafted - 6 of 20 = 30%
    Top ranked - 5 of 20 = 25%
    Drafted after Round 4/5 = 9 of 20 = 45%

    75% of these players either weren't drafted at all OR were drafted after Round 4/5

    Amazing....
    Last edited by griswold; 12-11-2015, 10:22 AM.
    Tags: None
  • #2
    I think this kind of sums it up -- you're a title contender if you went stud WR-heavy and/or lucked out with Freeman. Anything else likely didn't work this year. I'm surprised Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton and Tyrod Taylor aren't on this list.

    You're too kind on Freeman. He went in the 11th rd in my 12-tm redraft (by yours truly), and even in the 3-keeper RJ Pay for Play he went in the 8th rd.

    In my 14tm redraft, I'm 10-2-1 and have the bye with the worst, gawd-awful RBs I've ever had in fantasy football but ABrown, JJones & ARobinson as my WRs (and Dalton as my QB).

    And FYI, you didn't include the link.

    Comment

    • #3
      Just shows that putting up big money in a fantasy football league is silly.
      "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

      Comment

      • #4
        Top 12 QB thru Week 12 - TOTAL POINTS

        1. Brady,Tom NE 336.1 11 12 92 %
        2. Newton,Cam CAR 319.5 8 12 67 %
        3. Palmer,Carson ARI 299.8 11 12 92 %
        4. Dalton,Andy CIN 285.7 10 12 83 %
        5. Bortles,Blake JAX 283.1 7 12 58 %
        6. Rodgers,Aaron GB 281.6 8 12 67 %
        7. Wilson,Russell SEA 277.9 7 12 58 %
        8. Rivers,Philip SD 270.6 7 12 58 %
        9. Brees,Drew NO 262.2 6 11 55 %
        10. Carr,Derek OAK 259.7 7 12 58 %
        11. Manning,Eli NYG 257.8 7 12 58 %
        12. Stafford,M. DET 253.6 6 12 50 %

        How many of these QB's were drafted before Round 8?

        Rodgers - Sure
        Wilson - Probably

        But, most importantly is to check out the Consistency %!!!!

        Only Brady, Palmer and Dalton are above 80%

        Newton and Rodgers are at 67%

        EVERYONE ELSE IS BELOW 60%!!!

        Other positions to be posted later....

        Comment

        • #5
          Here are the top 24 RB's by PPR Total Points with Consistency %:

          1. Freeman,Devonta ATL 252.7 9 11 82 %
          2. Peterson,Adrian MIN 212.1 9 12 75 %
          3. Ingram,Mark NO 203.4 11 12 92 %
          4. Martin,Doug TB 185.7 8 12 67 %
          5. Miller,Lamar MIA 183.6 6 12 50 %
          6. Ivory,Chris NYJ 173.5 8 11 73 %
          7. Woodhead,Danny SD 170.8 8 12 67 %
          8. Murray,Latavius OAK 162.8 8 12 67 %
          9. McCoy,LeSean BUF 161.1 9 10 90 %
          10. Williams,DeAngelo PIT 156.3 6 12 50 %
          11. Murray,DeMarco PHI 155.1 7 11 64 %
          12. Gore,Frank IND 154.5 9 12 75 %
          13. Stewart,Jonathan CAR 150.9 8 12 67 %
          14. Gurley,Todd STL 150.8 7 10 70 %
          15. Forte,Matt CHI 149.3 7 9 78 %
          16. Yeldon,T.J. JAX 148.6 9 11 82 %
          17. Bernard,Giovani CIN 148.3 8 12 67 %
          18. McFadden,Darren DAL 145.0 6 12 50 %
          19. Riddick,Theo DET 140.2 7 12 58 %
          20. Starks,James GB 131.1 6 12 50 %
          21. Hill,Jeremy CIN 127.2 6 12 50 %
          22. Johnson,Duke CLE 125.8 4 12 33 %
          23. Rawls,Thomas SEA 125.2 4 12 33 %
          24. Forsett,Justin BAL 122.4 5 10 50 %

          Again, sooo many missing top RB's due to injuries or under performance.

          Yet, even those in this ranking, look how many players are under 50-60% consistent! (I bolded them)

          Comment

          • #6
            Originally posted by Mithrandir View Post
            Just shows that putting up big money in a fantasy football league is silly.
            This is a silly comment.

            The draft is a small piece of the puzzle. If you were on top of things during the season, you probably picked up a bunch of these players. If you're just going to draft, complain, and then sit on your hands, I guess it's an apt comment.

            Comment

            • #7
              This lack of consistency is why I find fantasy football too random

              Comment

              • #8
                Originally posted by swampdragon View Post
                This lack of consistency is why I find fantasy football too random
                I hear ya but this is the first time in my 13 years of tracking consistency that has looked this hay-wire.

                Comment

                • #9
                  Originally posted by revo View Post
                  This is a silly comment.

                  The draft is a small piece of the puzzle. If you were on top of things during the season, you probably picked up a bunch of these players. If you're just going to draft, complain, and then sit on your hands, I guess it's an apt comment.

                  Well don't you think everyone else in the league will be doing the same thing as far as picking up players? Each week seemingly random players just put up insane numbers. Way too random.
                  "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Mithrandir View Post
                    Well don't you think everyone else in the league will be doing the same thing as far as picking up players? Each week seemingly random players just put up insane numbers. Way too random.
                    Yep, I played last year and the random-ness drove me away.
                    If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
                    - Terence McKenna

                    Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

                    How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Mithrandir View Post
                      Well don't you think everyone else in the league will be doing the same thing as far as picking up players? Each week seemingly random players just put up insane numbers. Way too random.
                      So how is it the very good fantasy football owners in my leagues consistently win, but the donations consistently lose?

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Originally posted by griswold View Post
                        An article was put together to show the player owned percentage of the teams who qualified for the Championship round in the FFPC.

                        Here's the link to the article: http://rotoviz.com/2015/12/player-ow...p-round-teams/

                        However, here are the Top 20 players:

                        NAME POS PCT.OWNED
                        Spencer Ware RB 25.9% - Not drafted
                        Devonta Freeman RB 22.0% - Probably around Round 5 as a RB2/3
                        DeAndre Hopkins WR 18.5% - Top ranked
                        Scott Chandler TE 18.0% - Not drafted
                        Vance McDonald TE 17.8% - Not drafted
                        Larry Fitzgerald WR 16.7% - Probably around Round 7/8 as a WR2/3
                        Julio Jones WR 15.8% - Top ranked
                        Tom Brady QB 15.5% - Drafted around Round 7/8 due to 4 game suspension
                        Allen Robinson WR 15.1% - Probably around Round 4/5 as a WR2/3
                        Brandon Marshall WR 14.3% - Probably around Round 4/5 as a WR2/3
                        Jordan Reed TE 14.0% - Probably around Round 8/9 as a TE 1/2
                        Delanie Walker TE 13.9% - Probably around Round 8/9 as a TE 1/2 (even though I had him ranked higher)
                        Shaun Draughn RB 13.4% - Not drafted
                        Rob Gronkowski TE 13.2% - Top ranked
                        Gary Barnidge TE 13.1% - Not drafted
                        Danny Woodhead RB 12.9% - Probably around Round 9/10 as a RB3/4 (even though I had him higher)
                        Jeremy Langford RB 12.9% - Not drafted
                        Tyler Eifert TE 12.9% - Top ranked
                        Chris Ivory RB 12.7% - Probably around Round 4/5 as a RB2/3
                        Antonio Brown WR 12.6% - Top ranked

                        In summary:

                        Not drafted - 6 of 20 = 30%
                        Top ranked - 5 of 20 = 25%
                        Drafted after Round 4/5 = 9 of 20 = 45%

                        75% of these players either weren't drafted at all OR were drafted after Round 4/5

                        Amazing....
                        Eifert wasn't top-ranked. He was one of many TEs that went in the tier after Gronk, Graham, Olsen and Bennett. I got him in the 10th round of a keep-3 league.
                        Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
                        We pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Erik View Post
                          Eifert wasn't top-ranked. He was one of many TEs that went in the tier after Gronk, Graham, Olsen and Bennett. I got him in the 10th round of a keep-3 league.
                          and Jordan Reed went undrafted in both my 12-tm redraft and the RJ Pay for Play league.

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Good call on Reed....well, it depends on the league..Reed went in the 9th round in my 14 team league which gives 1.5 pts per reception for TE's.

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              You need to keep in mind the biases inherent to the population studied

                              1. High Stakes players

                              2. Playoff teams in the contest

                              You NEED to take more chances in high stakes. Someone like Reed is a great example. Besides the 1.5 PPR for the position, he's the type of guy you need in high stakes -- someone whose injury risk will make him less attractive to a home league where top 6 teams makes the playoffs.

                              The other thing is -- and this speaks to the consistency issue -- high stakes leagues fashion themselves to be head to head but they're really a total points competition with a H2H flavor as there's a points cut-off where you get into the playoffs if you attain a certain points level. There are usually a handful of teams that sneak in on the basis of a lucky H2H record but big-picture, high stakes is a points competition.

                              Gris' research may disagree, but my research on consistency says a more consistent team that averages a few points less per week will have a better W-L record than a team with inconsistent players with a higher average points per week.

                              Once H2H is taken out and it's mainly points, consistency isn't nearly as much of a factor.

                              Hey, just my research.
                              Follow me on Twitter @ToddZola

                              Comment

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