Junkies....a little help with a life decision

[griswold]

So, as some of you have seen from my rant, I'm really fed up with fantasy football and it's relationship with my consistency theory.

This year, in my 17 leagues, I'm only above .500 in FOUR of them and three of those are local leagues.

And it's not that I'm 5-6 in a bunch of them. It's terrible records like 2-9 or 3-8.

As I look at the consistency rankings this year, there's really no consistency hardly anywhere.

I've been at this for 13 years and I've made very little money and have spent hours upon hours writing and documenting my ideas.

And over those 13 years, very few people have really taken notice and used the concept successfully.

I sold about 100-125 books this year and most of them were on Amazon and Google.

Long story short, I'm tired and fed up.

Yes, I have all of the "street cred" that I could ask for (as I have been asked to be in major Expert leagues this year and in the past) and I have created many friends in the industry.

But, I feel that I've reached my peak.

So, here's my decision.....a local app company (who is funded by a former NFL player) wants to create an app around my concept.

However, with my lack of faith in the concept, I'm hesitant.

They say that my problem a lack of marketing, which is probably true but that costs money and I don't have alot of it.

So, what are the Junkies thoughts?

Do I give it one last shot? Do I just say it isn't worth the effort anymore?

I'm really torn.....any advice would be appreciated.

Hey, just my decision.

Gris

[revo]

Despite being a critic of the theory (but certainly not of you, nor your FF knowledge and dedication), I think you should see it through to the app stage. Then, if it still doesn't go the way you hoped, you could abandon it knowing you tried everything.

[griswold]

Despite being a critic of the theory (but certainly not of you, nor your FF knowledge and dedication), I think you should see it through to the app stage. Then, if it still doesn't go the way you hoped, you could abandon it knowing you tried everything.

Thanks Revo....I honestly have always appreciated your honesty with my concept.

I don't know if this year is just out of the norm or if this is the way the NFL is heading.

But thanks for your thought....I truly appreciate them.

[Todd Zola]

Gris - there is absolutely viability for the concept, but in context. Specifically, ceiling is more important than floor in high stakes football and in GPP DFS play. But floor is much more important in almost all home leagues and cash DFS games.

This is a ridiculously goofy NFL season. Consistency still matters. Don't make a knee-jerk decision based on an outlier.

[griswold]

Gris - there is absolutely viability for the concept, but in context. Specifically, ceiling is more important than floor in high stakes football and in GPP DFS play. But floor is much more important in almost all home leagues and cash DFS games.

This is a ridiculously goofy NFL season. Consistency still matters. Don't make a knee-jerk decision based on an outlier.

Thanks Todd. I appreciate your thoughts but it's been like this for the past 3 years.

3-5 years ago, I was in 13 leagues and made the playoffs in 8 of them and won 4!

Over the past 3 years, my teams have been progressively worse to the horrible display this season.

How can I support something that isn't working?

[ironfist]

It seems like a concept that makes sense, despite the results this year. As others have said there is merit in what it provides. Could this year just be an outlier? You've said you've had success in the past, so don't give up just because of one goofy season.

Have you tried to use the theory in regards to offensive systems in general instead of individual players? I wonder if you can find any trends that might help people find a good plug and play injury replacement.

[griswold]

Well, I found this on Fantasypros.....the BEST "experts" can only predict less than 60% accuracy on player's rankings....

http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/

[griswold]

It seems like a concept that makes sense, despite the results this year. As others have said there is merit in what it provides. Could this year just be an outlier? You've said you've had success in the past, so don't give up just because of one goofy season.

Have you tried to use the theory in regards to offensive systems in general instead of individual players? I wonder if you can find any trends that might help people find a good plug and play injury replacement.

Thanks Ironfist....appreciate your thoughts.

But it's not just this year....it's been the past 3 years that I have seen MY personal results from good to awful.

While many other experts won't talk about their failures....I WILL!

And right now, my teams suck!

[Todd Zola]

Thanks Todd. I appreciate your thoughts but it's been like this for the past 3 years.

3-5 years ago, I was in 13 leagues and made the playoffs in 8 of them and won 4!

Over the past 3 years, my teams have been progressively worse to the horrible display this season.

How can I support something that isn't working?

My guess is because it's your signature, so to speak, you're overly reliant on it. It should be a tool in your arsenal. My guess is you need more balance (upside players) especially if any of these leagues are industry leagues.

I don't think you can win solely using consistency. But incorporating it into your repertoire makes you a better player.

ETA -- also, possibly focusing on consistency may be distracting you from some of the other game theory adjustments necessary in today's FF landscape.

[griswold]

My guess is because it's your signature, so to speak, you're overly reliant on it. It should be a tool in your arsenal. My guess is you need more balance (upside players) especially if any of these leagues are industry leagues.

I don't think you can win solely using consistency. But incorporating it into your repertoire makes you a better player.

That's not entirely true....I normally draft my starters based on consistency and then take flyers/upside players after Round 7.

However, those players generally have some consistency behind them historically like Carson Palmer, Danny Woodhead, etc.

Other than Todd Gurley, there haven't been too many players with "upside" that have actually succeeded this year...has there been?

Devonta Freeman had ZERO upside and was supposed to be replaced by Tevin Coleman...

Doug Martin had little upside and was sup[posed to be replaced by Charles Sims....

I can go on and on.....the NFL is horribly unpredictable and it didn't used to be this way. I have proof.

[Todd Zola]

That's not entirely true....I normally draft my starters based on consistency and then take flyers/upside players after Round 7.

Perhaps your starters should be a mix of floor and ceiling? That's what I've found works in high stakes baseball where my overly conservative route that kills in home leagues got me killed in the NFBC (until recently). Your methods should make you better at recognizing high floor players. Then it's draft flow dynamics knowing when and who to take chances on.

[griswold]

Perhaps your starters should be a mix of floor and ceiling? That's what I've found works in high stakes baseball where my overly conservative route that kills in home leagues got me killed in the NFBC (until recently). Your methods should make you better at recognizing high floor players. Then it's draft flow dynamics knowing when and who to take chances on.

I agree and I feel that I do that. My high ceilings guys like Palmer, Benard, Woodhead and Landry have been in the teams that are winning....but my other teams of "high ceiling" potential of Lamar Miller, Justin Forsett, CJ Anderson have sucked.

[mjl]

Of your 17 leagues that you're mostly doing poorly in, how similar are the rosters? If you ended up with the same guys in each league, I don't think you're necessarily learning much from having done poorly in all of them.

[swampdragon]

Maybe it really is too random and the sample sizes too small. You want to eliminate as a many variables as possible but there might be too many.

You are still betting on something that may happen - it ain't accounting

[griswold]

Of your 17 leagues that you're mostly doing poorly in, how similar are the rosters? If you ended up with the same guys in each league, I don't think you're necessarily learning much from having done poorly in all of them.

Good point....I'll post my worst ones here:

This team is 3-8

Luck, Andrew IND QB
Palmer, Carson ARI QB
Ellington, Andre ARI
Forte, Matt CHI RB
Sproles, Darren PHI RB
Colston, Marques NOS
Huff, Josh PHI WR
Johnson, Andre IND
Jones, Marvin CIN
Landry, Jarvis MIA
Lockett, Tyler SEA
Matthews, Rishard MIA
Bennett, Martellus CHI TE
Donnell, Larry NYG TE

I took Forte, Luck, Ellington and Jarvis Landry in the 1st four rounds. Everyone one of these players were over 80% consistent last season.

Injuries killed me but Ellington never got a chance in Arizona and killed me.

Honestly, Ellington, Lamar Miller and Justin Forsett were the death of most of my bad teams. Poor starts, lack of playing time and injuries were the key.

All three of these guys were over 75% consistent last year.