14 team strategy - My draft is on Thursday

[jwlincy]

I just wanted to get your opinion on a little draft strategy for my local league.

-14 team Keeper League (1 keeper per team)
-Standard Scoring with 1/2PPR and 4pts for Passing TDs
-I pick in the #12 slot but I don't have a 2nd round pick (traded it away last year)
-My keeper is Joseph Randle (7th round)
-OBJ (7th), C.J. Anderson (7th), J. Hill (7th) & Forsett (7th) are keepers so won't be an option for Round 1
-Other keepers are D. Hopkins (11th), E. Sanders (6th), J. Matthews (7th), L. Murray (6th), T. Kelce (10th), J. Landry (7th), E. Manning (6th)

With no 2nd round pick, what is my best option at 1.12? Please rank the following players that I think will/could be available when I pick.

Luck
Forte
D. Murray
McCoy
Gore
Cal. Johnson
A.J. Green
R. Cobb
Gronkowski

[jwlincy]

Really hoping that the 1st round QB trend continues (at least 3 QBs have went in the 1st round in each of the past 5 years). If someone ahead of me grabs Luck or Rodgers (Wisconsin local league), it will push a couple higher options down to me (D. Thomas, D. Bryant, Jul. Jones).

Not sure that Forte will be there but I figured that he's probably the most likely of the top RBs (L. Bell, Lacy, Peterson, Charles & Lynch) to fall to me at 1.12.

I have a projected draft of:

1.01 L. Bell
1.02 Lacy
1.03 Peterson
1.04 Charles
1.05 A. Brown
1.06 Lynch
1.07 D. Bryant
1.08 D. Thomas
1.09 Luck
1.10 Forte
1.11 Jul. Jones

[revo]

Forte
McCoy
D. Murray
A.J. Green
R. Cobb
Cal. Johnson
Gronkowski
Luck
Gore

[jwlincy]

revo is the only one that wants to give his opinion. I know for a fact that there are a bunch of guys in here that like to give their 2 cents. Come on fellas, help a brotha out.

[Trautdiggity]

I'd move Calvin ahead of D Murray on Revo's list but agree otherwise

[chancellor]

I'd take Murray before Forte with Trestman gone. The Bear OL is poor at best, and with Forte's targets going down, I don't see him above Murray at all. In fact, I have so little confidence in Forte this year I'd put Megatron and Gronk above him.

So I'd go Murray, McCoy -gap- Megatron, Gronk, Forte -gap- Green, Cobb, Gore, Lyck

[griswold]

I'd rank them this way:

Forte
D. Murray
Gronkowski
R. Cobb
McCoy
Gore
Cal. Johnson
A.J. Green
Luck

I like Forte in a 1/2 PPR format. He's still going to get a ton of receptions (certainly more than Murray and McCoy).

[jwlincy]

I'm really hoping for a QB (or 2) & Gronk to go in the first 11 picks of our draft. Having a chance to get a shot at a WR like D. Thomas, D. Bryant or Jul. Jones would be my best case scenario. I'm really thin at RB though (and don't have a 2nd round pick).

So part of me thinks that I have to go with a RB since WR is a much deeper position. The problem is that I'm not sure if I trust any of the likely RBs that will be there at 1.12. Forte (bad OL and change of O-Coordinator), D. Murray (injury risk due to nearly 500 touches in 2014), McCoy (hot & cold 2014, no longer in the Eagles fast past offense, and dealing with a hamstring injury in the pre-season).

The other part of me wants to take the top WR available and deal with RB in the 3rd round (and probably take a flyer on some upside guys later in the draft).

[SeaDogStat]

Forte
McCoy
D. Murray
A.J. Green
R. Cobb
Cal. Johnson
Gronkowski
Luck
Gore

I like revo's list, flopping Murray and McCoy... I don't think Forte will get as many receptions as last year but as Gris pointed out, still more than the other RBs

[jwlincy]

Last chance to throw in your 2 cents. My draft is in about 3 hours.

Thanks in advance.

[Erik]

Forte
McCoy
D. Murray
A.J. Green
R. Cobb
Cal. Johnson
Gronkowski
Luck
Gore

I'd put Green/Cobb/Johnson in the order of Johnson/Cobb/Green, but there's not much difference there. Agree with the rest of revo's list.

[jwlincy]

Not that it matters but I ended up with Julio Jones in the 1st and then grabbed Andre Ellington in the 3rd.

Gronk was gone before I picked in the 1st so I was pretty much locked into a RB or WR with my first pick. If I had went RB in Round 1, D. Murray, McCoy, Gore & L. Miller were the top options when it got to me. Then I could have paired one of those RBs with A. Robinson, Maclin, B. Marshall, Watkins, Agholor in the 3rd. In the end I think that Julio was the correct choice (also could have had Calvin, Cobb or A.J. Green instead of Julio (A. Brown, D. Bryant & D. Thomas were gone).

As far as Ellington, I could have taken Ivory, Gordon, Hyde, Gurley, or D. Martin in the 3rd instead of Ellington.