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In keeper league: Forte or Ellington?

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  • In keeper league: Forte or Ellington?

    12-team PPR. We have an unusual keeper format. You can keep up to 3 guys, at least 1 of whom must have been a rookie the previous year. But there is no penalty by round for keeping someone. If you draft a guy in the 5th round, you can keep him in the 5th round forever if you so desire.

    Therefore, studs, especially stud RBs, don't get moved much. Bascially the league is a dynasty for studs and a redraft for everyone else. My team has been terrible two years in a row mainly because of issues at RB.

    Forte was not kept and I took him at 1.2 (Peterson went 1.1, Morris, Foster and Martin went later in the first round, all others perceived to have RB1 value were kept). The rest of my team has been disastrous and one owner has been trying to pry him from me. I've told him that because of our keeper rules, I have no incentive to trade him unless I get something in return that is favorable from an RB keeper standpoint.

    He has now offered Ellington, who is a 20th round keeper.

    So, which would you rather have in this format, Forte at a 1st round price or Ellington at a 20th round price?

    My other keepers would be two from this group, at least one of whom must be a rookie: Sankey 4th, Hyde 7th, Crowell 17th, G. Tate 5th, T. Smith 15th, Crabtree 16th, Big Ben 10th, Bridgewater 19th.

    I expect to have either the 1.2 or 1.3 pick. The Toilet Bowl winner gets 1.1, and then it goes in reverse order of finish. I am 1-9 and so is another team. However, if I kept Forte, I could try to trade back in the first round in exchange for higher picks in other rounds, which would allow me to keep him for a low first-rounder instead of a high first-rounder. If I did the deal and kept Ellington, I would draft at 1.2 or 1.3, though there's no guarantee a consensus stud RB would be there.

    Another consideration is that I may not be able to stay in this league: I may be sent to a conference in Europe that is always held the same week as this league drafts. If that's the case, I don't want to make the team seem too unattractive to a potential successor.

    So, what say you all?
    Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
    We pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.

  • #2
    Does he want this as a deal in-season, or can you re-visit this in the offseason?

    I think you really need to have a good feel on which players are going to be off the board to know, and that may not happen until later in the offseason. Ellington is clearly the far superior value, but if that means you're just going to end up with an Ellington/Alfred Morris combo or the like, you're really not getting anywhere.

    And as of now, I'd keep Golden Tate. As far as your rookie, they are not really too attractive at this point in time, but that could change by next August.

    Comment


    • #3
      Forte must be the #2 RB in your entire league in a PPR. Could you deal him for a guy like Le'Veon Bell instead? What round can Bell be kept in?
      14 Team 1/2PPR league (1 Keeper)

      QB: Rivers (3), Stafford (5), Keenum (NA)
      RB: Kamara (11), McKinnon (7), Bernard (7)
      WR: M. Thomas (NA), Crabtree (1), Shepard (8), Wallace (NA), Cobb (NA)
      TE: Olsen (NA)
      K: Lutz (7)
      DEF: JAX (7)

      (We start 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WRs, 1 RB/WR/TE, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 DEF)

      Comment


      • #4
        Bell can be kept for a 3rd rounder. Owned by a different guy.

        This guy wants to do the deal now; he wants to win this year and isn't interested in waiting until the offseason.
        Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
        We pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.

        Comment


        • #5
          Who do you project to be available in the draft as a Top 5 pick? That's really what's going to decide this.

          Comment


          • #6
            Based on your list from this year's 1st round, your 1st round pick would probably be a late 1st/early 2nd round pick in redraft leagues.

            So, next year, I think it comes down to: Forte and a 20th rounder OR a late 1st/early 2nd and Ellington? For 2015, still a close call as Forte is so good, but I'd take Ellington. But thinking beyond 2015, you continue to get to keep Ellington for a 20th rounder! And if Ellington plays football past 2016, even better.

            I'd absolutely take Ellington.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by revo View Post
              Who do you project to be available in the draft as a Top 5 pick? That's really what's going to decide this.
              Not counting my current roster, I project the following to be kept as of now:

              QB: Luck 7th, Rivers 10th, Rodgers 12th, Brees 13th, Wilson 13th
              RB: Foster 1st, Bernard 2nd, Lacy 2nd, McCoy 5th*, Hill 6th, Charles 9th, T. West 9th, A. Williams 9th, Murray 10th*, McKinnon 17th, Sims 17th, Oliver 18th, Archer 19th (guy has no other rookies), Ellington 20th
              WR: Nelson 3rd, C. Johnson 4th, Green 5th, Evans 5th, Benjamin 6th, Watkins 6th, Jeffrey 8th, Gordon 12th, Beckham 15th, Allen 16th, Marshall 16th, D. Adams 17th, T. Williams 19th
              TE: Graham 4th, Cook 17th

              * -- This guy also has L. Bell 3rd but can't keep all 3 of him, McCoy and Murray.

              If I had a top 5 pick, these guys would be in the mix:

              RB: Forte, L. Bell (unless he, McCoy or Murray are traded), Peterson, Lynch, Morris
              WR: D. Thomas, Bryant
              QB: P. Manning
              Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
              We pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Erik View Post
                Not counting my current roster, I project the following to be kept as of now:

                QB: Luck 7th, Rivers 10th, Rodgers 12th, Brees 13th, Wilson 13th
                RB: Foster 1st, Bernard 2nd, Lacy 2nd, McCoy 5th*, Hill 6th, Charles 9th, T. West 9th, A. Williams 9th, Murray 10th*, McKinnon 17th, Sims 17th, Oliver 18th, Archer 19th (guy has no other rookies), Ellington 20th
                WR: Nelson 3rd, C. Johnson 4th, Green 5th, Evans 5th, Benjamin 6th, Watkins 6th, Jeffrey 8th, Gordon 12th, Beckham 15th, Allen 16th, Marshall 16th, D. Adams 17th, T. Williams 19th
                TE: Graham 4th, Cook 17th

                * -- This guy also has L. Bell 3rd but can't keep all 3 of him, McCoy and Murray.

                If I had a top 5 pick, these guys would be in the mix:

                RB: Forte, L. Bell (unless he, McCoy or Murray are traded), Peterson, Lynch, Morris
                WR: D. Thomas, Bryant
                QB: P. Manning
                I'd touch base with the McCoy/Murray/L. Bell owner to see if he'd be willing to deal one of them for Forte. Ellington as a 20th round pick is pretty tempting though. Just not sure if I'm sold on him as a stud RB. McCoy, Murray, Bell & Forte all fit the bill of a bell cow back.
                14 Team 1/2PPR league (1 Keeper)

                QB: Rivers (3), Stafford (5), Keenum (NA)
                RB: Kamara (11), McKinnon (7), Bernard (7)
                WR: M. Thomas (NA), Crabtree (1), Shepard (8), Wallace (NA), Cobb (NA)
                TE: Olsen (NA)
                K: Lutz (7)
                DEF: JAX (7)

                (We start 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WRs, 1 RB/WR/TE, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 DEF)

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by jwlincy View Post
                  I'd touch base with the McCoy/Murray/L. Bell owner to see if he'd be willing to deal one of them for Forte. Ellington as a 20th round pick is pretty tempting though. Just not sure if I'm sold on him as a stud RB. McCoy, Murray, Bell & Forte all fit the bill of a bell cow back.
                  Right -- is Ellington a stud RB in a league where most stud RBs are kept indefinitely? At this point, he's not. He's a phenomenal value, but Erik would be trading away a stud where very few are available.

                  Peterson can't be counted on, and there's no way on earth Morris should be in the conversation. So based on his projected available players (and I assume Forte and Bell will be kept), we're talking Lynch as the likely top pick, with Erik likely to get Demaryius or Dez. If he can live with a marginal RB2 like his Sankey, then I guess I'd do the deal.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    The Bell/McCoy/Murray owner who can only keep two of them has offered McCoy (who can kept for a 5th rounder) and a 5th for Forte. Would you take that instead of Ellington (who can be kept for a 20th)? This would mean that Forte would almost certainly be back in the pool because the guy would almost certainly keep Bell and Murray as his veteran keepers.
                    Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
                    We pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Erik View Post
                      The Bell/McCoy/Murray owner who can only keep two of them has offered McCoy (who can kept for a 5th rounder) and a 5th for Forte. Would you take that instead of Ellington (who can be kept for a 20th)? This would mean that Forte would almost certainly be back in the pool because the guy would almost certainly keep Bell and Murray as his veteran keepers.
                      I'd prefer McCoy over Ellington. Plus it give you a better chance to get a stud RB with your first round pick at 1.02 or 1.03. With Lynch & Forte likely to get thrown back, you'd get one of those guys or Demaryius or Dez with your first pick. Pairing that with McCoy in the 5th and the extra 5th round pick, I think that you'd have a stronger team.

                      The age difference between McCoy & Ellington isn't big either, McCoy will be 27 in July and Ellington will be 26 in February. I just feel better about McCoy as a RB than I do Ellington. Good luck!
                      14 Team 1/2PPR league (1 Keeper)

                      QB: Rivers (3), Stafford (5), Keenum (NA)
                      RB: Kamara (11), McKinnon (7), Bernard (7)
                      WR: M. Thomas (NA), Crabtree (1), Shepard (8), Wallace (NA), Cobb (NA)
                      TE: Olsen (NA)
                      K: Lutz (7)
                      DEF: JAX (7)

                      (We start 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WRs, 1 RB/WR/TE, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 DEF)

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by jwlincy View Post
                        I'd prefer McCoy over Ellington. Plus it give you a better chance to get a stud RB with your first round pick at 1.02 or 1.03. With Lynch & Forte likely to get thrown back, you'd get one of those guys or Demaryius or Dez with your first pick. Pairing that with McCoy in the 5th and the extra 5th round pick, I think that you'd have a stronger team.

                        The age difference between McCoy & Ellington isn't big either, McCoy will be 27 in July and Ellington will be 26 in February. I just feel better about McCoy as a RB than I do Ellington. Good luck!
                        I agree with this. McCoy will bounce back.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I too would prefer McCoy over Ellington. Because of keepers, 5th round pick in your league is probably worth more like a 6th round pick in most leagues. Plus he's giving you a 5th round pick anyway?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I did the McCoy deal, thanks guys.

                            Since all "veteran keepers" are studs or close, and some "rookie keepers" are as well, a 5th here is more like a 7th or 8th in redraft.
                            Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
                            We pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.

                            Comment

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