*** VD 15 Commentary Thread ***

[cavebird]

Well, that is a question that has a difficult answer. If we want commentary with some meaning, we need to talk about picks, and to do so intelligently, comparisons have to be made. Especially early--in the last couple of rounds, the commentary can come after the draft is finished. But early round commentary would be meaningless a month from now when this finishes. A tough call. I'd abide by what people say, but I would worry that commentary threads would all degrade into VD 13 commentary if we couldn't make our takes on the picks.

[The Feral Slasher]

Well, that is a question that has a difficult answer. If we want commentary with some meaning, we need to talk about picks, and to do so intelligently, comparisons have to be made. Especially early--in the last couple of rounds, the commentary can come after the draft is finished. But early round commentary would be meaningless a month from now when this finishes. A tough call. I'd abide by what people say, but I would worry that commentary threads would all degrade into VD 13 commentary if we couldn't make our takes on the picks.

"Degrade"

[jmaeroff]

May regret this pick, as it appears many are (probably wisely) shifting to going hard after QUIZYs. But all those Ks were too much for me to pass up.

[Bene Futuis]

May regret this pick, as it appears many are (probably wisely) shifting to going hard after QUIZYs. But all those Ks were too much for me to pass up.

Often, you cast yourself into a particular strategy when you pick Nolan Ryan. Now, you certainly can spend the rest of the draft trying to offset his high-ish ratios on both the BY and Career side with the good ratio but bad counting stats guys, but you can also consider......doubling down and leaning into what makes him great.

[Bene Futuis]

"Degrade"

Right? As if that's not the most enlightened thread on the board. Hell, in the history of this godforsaken place! I'ma get crazy fuckin' smart next time I head over there. It will literally blow your mind. Literally.

[Bene Futuis]

Well, that is a question that has a difficult answer. If we want commentary with some meaning, we need to talk about picks, and to do so intelligently, comparisons have to be made. Especially early--in the last couple of rounds, the commentary can come after the draft is finished. But early round commentary would be meaningless a month from now when this finishes. A tough call. I'd abide by what people say, but I would worry that commentary threads would all degrade into VD 13 commentary if we couldn't make our takes on the picks.

We should talk more about picks, teams, etc. Some of the quieter among us should feel free to chime in and talk shit about Feral's team, for example. But seriously, we shouldn't even really allude to players who have not yet been picked. You can still discuss picks intelligently without using comparison. I mean, comparison is kissing cousins with criticism ("you really shoulda taken this guy"). I for one, cannot condone kissing one's cousin in that kind of a way. I know you're from the South but we have fucking standards elsewhere, ok?

[johnnya24]

May regret this pick, as it appears many are (probably wisely) shifting to going hard after QUIZYs. But all those Ks were too much for me to pass up.

So this is actually a common rookie mistake. It'll take you a while to acclimatize to what is a good / bad / mediocre, and more importantly, what is good / bad / mediocre at different times of the draft.

In terms of Career, anything over 2.90 ERA is moving into the negatives, 1.18 WHIP likewise
In terms of BY, anything over 1.90 ERA is moving into the negative, 0.98 WHIP likewise

The best tip is to look at previous drafts, and pay attention to where players are typically selected.

Nolan Ryan:

VD14 - 12th Round
VD13 - 9th Round
VD12 - 9th Round

That will tell you the approximate value of a player, even if you don't as yet know why. So why is Ryan a mid-round pick despite all those numbers?

1. His ratios are bad for this stage of the draft. The key number is IP ... 5386 IP of 3.19 ERA and 1.247 is going to be hard to recover from. And that BY WHIP is terrible. The ERA's would be manageable if the WHIP's weren't so toxic.

Why is it hard to recover? Because in order to make Ryan work in an all-round pitching squad, you'll end up damaging the competitiveness of your hitting. How will rescuing Ryan's ratios hurt my hitting?

All the good pitchers who can help recover those ratios will require earlier game picks, or you will have to burn good Letters/Franchises (or likely both). This will detract from other areas of your team. So while everyone else is load up on hitting stats, you'll be over-picking pitchers to try and make your ratios competitive again.

2. R is the 6th best letter after BCMSW. So you will be able to get good value from your R even in the later parts of the draft. You don't want to be taking too many negatives with early picks from big letters or Franchises.

3. Relative value - why pick Ryan in the 3rd, when you can get him in the 10th Round? Even if you really want him, it's always better to gamble, especially with the big letters / Franchises. if your gamble fails, you'll still get a good replacement. If you compare the average 3rd round player with the average 10th round player ... that will be quite a difference ... either in terns of raw value or letter/franchise value.

Tips:

As Bene suggested, you should probably lean into where Nolan Ryan is strong, rather than try to rescue his bad stats. Options:

1. Tank ratios completely - that is, completely abandon having competitive ratios. This will open up your late game player pool enormously. You will have a whole field of players no-one else will be interested in. That said, you will be playing with 4 less categories
2. Partially tank ratios:
- Ryan's BY ratios are more easily recoverable, so you could tank career ratios and try to remain competitive in BY ratios - so players with a single strong BY and bad career ratios.
- WHIP is easier to come by than ERA, and Ryan's ERA isn't atrocious, so maybe you could try and recover his ERA while abandoning his WHIP - so targeting players with low WHIP and bad ERA's

BUT be aware, with the partial-tank strats, the players you will be targeting will also be very desirable for all the other teams.

[johnnya24]

It's hard to tell. From last draft, this is why I am not a big fan of those three really early (and it could be a lot different this time with an extra QUIZ player for each team, but the same principle applies): Would you trade the last pick of the second round and 245 career K's for the 7th pick of the 16th round, 4 career Wins, 170 career saves, 0.036 in career ERA, 0.003 in career WHIP, 3 BY wins, 21 BY saves, 0.028 in BY ERA, and 0.005 in BY WHIP? I wouldn't. That's the difference in where Quisenberry and a different Q pitcher were picked last draft.

I'll preface this by saying that draft discussion has been in the doldrums for years now, and it's good that you're back, and that we have some new players to reinvigorate things around here. Also one of the reasons why I'm pushing new kinds of draft and new data pools ... new stuff to talk and think about.

So while I'm 100% in agreement that more draft discussion is healthy and desirable (and that has been lacking lately as we've gotten too familiar with things!), it's really important that we hold steadfast to the "no talking about players" rule. That includes alluding to players in an obvious way, even if you don't mention them by name.

In this circumstance, you can easily discuss the merits of Quisenberry vis à vis other Q or QUIZY players without alluding to an actual undrafted player. And then once that other player has been selected, then discuss the specifics.

While this instance is innocuous and innocent, if we allow this kind of discussion to become commonplace, it will eventually lead to unnecessary arguments, bad feeling, and open the possibility of players trying to "game" discussions to get an edge or unfairly influence other picks.

[johnnya24]

It seemed weird that Izzy went first, but there's Ugi. He's the felon version of Izzy and Quisy.

I went back and forth so many times. I was set on Urbina for a time, and if Heyelander picks 30 minutes earlier, I pick Urbina. I switched because of the 4 QUIZY requirement. Everyone has to pick a Q or an I this time ... and since I've no clue how the franchise element will impact flexibility, I went with the worse letter over the slightly better value. Plus I'm picking him for saves, and Izzy has more of those.

[johnnya24]

But not before Quisenberry, who by all rights should have gone first overall.

I think you picked him at a good time. He could easily be a late first rounder in this format IMO. With Q or I being requirements, and the weak Franchise, I think he more than merits that (and I'm deliberately undervaluing Franchises a little until I get a handle on their actual value).

But first overall ... is that blue stuff on the streets again?

[jmaeroff]

Appreciate the tips, thanks.

[frae]

Just checking if I missed it, is there a scoring sheet?

[johnnya24]

Just checking if I missed it, is there a scoring sheet?

Today, tomorrow at the latest.

There is Player/franchise spreadsheet in case you don't know.

[jmaeroff]

Today, tomorrow at the latest.

There is Player/franchise spreadsheet in case you don't know.

Where's that located?

[chancellor]

"Degrade"

Well, I snuck in there, so it's tough to argue with cavebird on that assessment.