*** VD 14 Commentary Thread ***

[johnnya24]

I'm bored ... mid-term team reviews?

[frae]

I'm bored ... mid-term team reviews?

Always fun to see how bad I am doing

[johnnya24]

ControllerJ

The reigning champ. Definitely contending again. Looks like some kind of OBP punt (or semi-punt). I was debating Hecker at at 8.10, knowing that I had to pick him there and then. I passed. CJ obliged.

Johnny

Haven't been content with a lot of my picks. I get drafts occasionally where i can't find the right balance between players I need to pick and value. Every pair of picks have seemed to compromise something or other. Normally that makes it hard to win. I have no idea where I stand, and when I start messing around with speculative experiments (like Smoltz-Carlton), that's normally a bad sign. I'll be around the top 3/5, but this doesn't feel winning.

Frae

Very solid so far, but with no QUIZY's selected, it's hard to properly adjudicate. Could be a contender for a solid finish, making a mockery of Heyelander's predraft odds.

TSGarp

Garp has been making excellent value picks all draft. I really like his squad from that perspective. He has managed to get some insane value all the way down. One of my favourtie teams so far.

Heye

Clearly preoccupied with real life, and not really able to devote as much time as usual. Saying that, a respectable job considering, a lot of solid picks and positional bases covered. Hated the Jim McCormick pick though - a WC 1870/80's pitcher ... could have got him or something similar / better in the last round.

Cavebird

Probably my favourite team so far. Excellent balance of flexibility, value and letter/decade management. Definite contender.

[cavebird]

So, out of the first six in drafting order, you have four contenders and one you can't adjudicate. Maybe it's too early to tell. I don't like my team as much as you do. I have a few problems that do not have easy solutions. Then again, my target was to look at the results of VD 6 and try to hit the total that got 9 points in every category. That is probably an impossible goal. I would like my team a lot more if I had Daly instead of Dickey. Of all the picks I have been snaked on, that one hurt the worst. I really don't have any particularly good backup plans at 1900's hitter.

[johnnya24]

Bene

I like where the hitting is at. Plenty of stacked up numbers and room to maneuver later on. Always good in a combo-draft. It's hard to get big number later without wrecking some other part of your team. But kindoff the opposite with the pitching. On the surface it looks like something's gotta give between the ratios or counting stats. Unlike the hitting, neither are dominant enough to carry the other ... and the guys who can do both are long gone. Will be very interesting to see what he does.

Hacko

Has turned into a ratio punt, but maybe didn't start off that way? You really don't need both Randy and Clemens for a ratio punt, in fact you don't really need either. That said, things are looking good on the hitting front. You need a really beefy hitting squad to make this work, and that is certainly a beefy hitting squad. The QUI (Irvin) might have been better in the pitching, but apart from that, the hitting is where it needs to be.

Revo

Has clearly had some sort of plan from the start. Really liked his early picks, and was coveting the options he had in the first 4/5 rounds, compared to the options I had. Dominant hitting lineup, but not sure what to make of the pitching. Maybe a change of mind after the Kimbrel pick? Kimbrel doesn't really fit well with Clarkson and Ryan. 10K IP of those ratios are going to be hard to reign back in, so possibly competing with Hacko for a race to the bottom of the pitching ratios ... who can dumped ratios slightly worse than the other to get those 3 point multipliers?

DMT

Really like the hitting. Some stand-out picks - really liked the Waddell-Votto-Biggio trio. Interesting start to the pitching, following up Isringhausen with Hoffman. As much as I like Trevor Hoffman, starting with 2 closers in a draft like this seems perilous, especially with the 2010's pitchers reducing the overall value of saves - well compared to the good ole days when Hoffman was worth so much more. but Adams-Waddell-Tiant as a decnet follow up. So overall, looking good.

Ken

Hitting is overall in a good position despite the somewhat unnecessary Gehringer Util pick. As long as that doesn't effect flexibility later in the draft that should be fine though. But, needs to bring his BY hitting stats up a bit, unless he's trying some kind of weird BY punt. The Bonds BY (2004) suggests something weird is afoot. The pitching though isn't as solid as I would like to see when we also have hitting weirdness. Normally weirdness in one category requires solidity in the other. Looks like a Career ratio punt, which in itself is fairly solidly grounded with some good career numbers already banked, but can this work alongside the hitting weirdness? Might also be aided if Hacko and Revo are indeed both ratio punting. Time will tell. I like weirdness, so this is right up my alley. I'm rootin' for you, but confused at the same time

Feral

To be expected, Feral always drafts a good team. All of his players seem to have been picked up at a good time, and a very solid foundation. I seem to recall looking at Thome and Gibson several rounds before they were drafted.

[johnnya24]

So, out of the first six in drafting order, you have four contenders and one you can't adjudicate. Maybe it's too early to tell. I don't like my team as much as you do. I have a few problems that do not have easy solutions. Then again, my target was to look at the results of VD 6 and try to hit the total that got 9 points in every category. That is probably an impossible goal. I would like my team a lot more if I had Daly instead of Dickey. Of all the picks I have been snaked on, that one hurt the worst. I really don't have any particularly good backup plans at 1900's hitter.

Yeah pretty much. From the top half, I like CJ, Frae, TSG and your team. Mine doesn't feeling like a winning squad ... I feel my ceiling isn't high enough to win, but might be high enough for a high finish (if that makes sense). Everyone drafts well these days, and multi scoring creates the possibility that a team like yours (for instance), that is looking to score across the board, can hit a perfect storm. There are a lot of teams that could do that, so you can't eliminate any more than a few teams at this stage.

It'll be a little more clear in 5/6 rounds. But even then, it'll only be the contenders that are clear, not necessarily the winner.

Take the last VD as an example. I was chasing CJ all the way, and he always looked 5 points ahead, and I didn't see anyway to catch him and was resigned to second place. It seemed impossible, he looked like a clear winner. Then the way the final 2 rounds fitted together I somehow closed to within 0.2 points at the end, and that was purely other peoples picks shifting around the points totals in the final round.

[johnnya24]

The bottom half got a lot more lovin' than the top ... definitely more interesting teams down there.

[cavebird]

Yeah pretty much. From the top half, I like CJ, Frae, TSG and your team. Mine doesn't feeling like a winning squad ... I feel my ceiling isn't high enough to win, but might be high enough for a high finish (if that makes sense). Everyone drafts well these days, and multi scoring creates the possibility that a team like yours (for instance), that is looking to score across the board, can hit a perfect storm. There are a lot of teams that could do that, so you can't eliminate any more than a few teams at this stage.

It'll be a little more clear in 5/6 rounds. But even then, it'll only be the contenders that are clear, not necessarily the winner.

Take the last VD as an example. I was chasing CJ all the way, and he always looked 5 points ahead, and I didn't see anyway to catch him and was resigned to second place. It seemed impossible, he looked like a clear winner. Then the way the final 2 rounds fitted together I somehow closed to within 0.2 points at the end, and that was purely other peoples picks shifting around the points totals in the final round.

The tricky part of my strategy (if you can call it that, I am more or less playing it straight up) is that if I don't hit the perfect storm (and the little issues like Daly and Wilhelm pile up), I could easily finish 10th or something because everything comes up short. High risk, high reward. And as for interesting teams, hey sometimes no strategy is the most interesting strategy. I think it is definitely the toughest in this, lol.

[johnnya24]

The tricky part of my strategy (if you can call it that, I am more or less playing it straight up) is that if I don't hit the perfect storm (and the little issues like Daly and Wilhelm pile up), I could easily finish 10th or something because everything comes up short. High risk, high reward. And as for interesting teams, hey sometimes no strategy is the most interesting strategy. I think it is definitely the toughest in this, lol.

Yup, ride that line! It's a fun way to draft.

... you won't finish 10th

[Bene Futuis]

“ Bene

I like where the hitting is at. Plenty of stacked up numbers and room to maneuver later on. Always good in a combo-draft. It's hard to get big number later without wrecking some other part of your team. But kindoff the opposite with the pitching. On the surface it looks like something's gotta give between the ratios or counting stats. Unlike the hitting, neither are dominant enough to carry the other ... and the guys who can do both are long gone. Will be very interesting to see what he does.”


Yeah, a couple fateful decisions did me in.

So, to ratio or not to ratio? I don’t even know. A lot of tough calls to make going forward.

[johnnya24]

“ Bene

I like where the hitting is at. Plenty of stacked up numbers and room to maneuver later on. Always good in a combo-draft. It's hard to get big number later without wrecking some other part of your team. But kindoff the opposite with the pitching. On the surface it looks like something's gotta give between the ratios or counting stats. Unlike the hitting, neither are dominant enough to carry the other ... and the guys who can do both are long gone. Will be very interesting to see what he does.”


Yeah, a couple fateful decisions did me in.

So, to ratio or not to ratio? I don’t even know. A lot of tough calls to make going forward.

Nathan is objectively a good pick. But imagine how strong your pitching would look if you match another 3rd round SP with Kershaw and Brown.

[heyelander]

Pick made, updated my skip me post.

[cavebird]

Pick made, updated my skip me post.

All the anticipation and drama, and it turns out to be a QUIZY pitching blank. Gotta love VD's!

[johnnya24]

All the anticipation and drama, and it turns out to be a QUIZY pitching blank. Gotta love VD's!

If you could stop making good picks, that'd be great.

[cavebird]

If you could stop making good picks, that'd be great.

Where's the fun in that? I think I should keep making good picks, and everyone else should stop. Sounds like more fun to me!