*** VD 14 Commentary Thread ***

[cavebird]

I think he was referring to bene in additive scoring.

I was. I imagine your projections are very similar to mine.

[The Feral Slasher]

I think he was referring to bene in additive scoring.

Ok, now that he confused me i have it in for him, lol

[DMT]

I was. I imagine your projections are very similar to mine.

Yep, but they've already misfired and now it's less than a point difference.

[cavebird]

Yep, but they've already misfired and now it's less than a point difference.

It is really up to others. Our picks are pretty easy at this point. Hell, three wild cards left, and I have more confidence in who those guys will be than the other picks. It's crazy close. Of course, the picks of others have already wildly affected this in the last couple of rounds.

[Bene Futuis]

Hmm, by my hasty and crappy projections with zero thought put into them it looks like there's a clear winner by several points.

[cavebird]

Hmm, by my hasty and crappy projections with zero thought put into them it looks like there's a clear winner by several points.

I hope it's me, lol! But, no, I don't see that at all.

[Bene Futuis]

I'd like to officially propose that we do something about the last round problem --- should we revisit blind picks for the last round like we've discussed in the past?

[cavebird]

They are all blind if people are nice. I have avoided saying anything to anyone that would affect things, to my knowledge---despite the temptation. The problem with last round blind picks is that we should always have an odd number of rounds and not blind last round picks---the advantage of picking early is counter-balanced by the advantage of seeing the picks in the last round. DMT has that advantage over me, and he deserves it---I got Pete Alexander.

[Bene Futuis]

Hmm, I dunno. Seitzer actually looked into whether certain draft positions are advantageous and I think there wasn't much of a difference outside of a moderate benefit to being first. I'm sure he'll remember better than I. But the advantage of picking last or close to last as a contender can be enormous.

[cavebird]

And Bene, I would love to give you some projection advice, but (A) you haven't picked yet and (B) there are only three teams with hitters left to pick, and those teams affect each other with their picks more---the three teams are me, you, and DMT, and we have decades of 1910, 1920, and 1930, so our choices definitely overlap. You are basically the last person I can give a projection hint to.

[cavebird]

That being said, I would be all in favor of a blind last round if the number of rounds were even---the last non-blind picks would be for those who picked last in the first round, and the added benefit of drafting last in the last round would disappear.

[Bene Futuis]

Huh, what I thought was an obvious pick for a certain someone turned out to be like 3 points worse than another one I found. Now I have the top two very close.

[The Feral Slasher]

They are all blind if people are nice. I have avoided saying anything to anyone that would affect things, to my knowledge---despite the temptation. The problem with last round blind picks is that we should always have an odd number of rounds and not blind last round picks---the advantage of picking early is counter-balanced by the advantage of seeing the picks in the last round. DMT has that advantage over me, and he deserves it---I got Pete Alexander.

There is not usually an advantage to picking last. Particularly in a letter/decade format

[Bene Futuis]

One of the only times I've won at this thing was where Johnny and I were basically in a dead heat but the final pick was perhaps sub-optimal and I won by a couple tenths.

[cavebird]

Huh, what I thought was an obvious pick for a certain someone turned out to be like 3 points worse than another one I found. Now I have the top two very close.

Well, that would have been what I wanted to send you. It's tight as a tick between me and DMT (you can say that much; it is obvious).