*** VD 13 Commentary Thread ***

[Kevin Seitzer]

He will not !

I disagree

[Kevin Seitzer]

I disagree

Unless he can deliver margaritas to Texas.

[The Feral Slasher]

Unless he can deliver margaritas to Texas.

Fuck, from what the election thread is saying I may need more tequila

[Kevin Seitzer]

Fuck, from what the election thread is saying I may need more tequila

Yeah, I don't think we're seeing a Biden landslide, for sure. Unclear who will actually win until we get more clarity in the Midwest, which we may not get tonight.

[The Feral Slasher]

Holy Fuck, this is not happening.

[Controller Jacobs]

Looking like Biden may take Arizona. If so, I believe Pennsylvania + either of Mich/Wisc does it.
Regardless, I have never felt so alienated. Everyone knows who he is. How could anyone want him to have any power over their lives?

[Kevin Seitzer]

Looking like Biden may take Arizona. If so, I believe Pennsylvania + either of Mich/Wisc does it.
Regardless, I have never felt so alienated. Everyone knows who he is. How could anyone want him to have any power over their lives?

Yeah, it saddens me that it's as close as it is. This is the kind of candidate who shouldn't even get 10% of the vote, even grudgingly.

[Ken]

Also, less important, but how were the polls so wrong yet again? From a data analysis standpoint this is upsetting. Can we just not trust any numbers anymore?

[Kevin Seitzer]

Also, less important, but how were the polls so wrong yet again? From a data analysis standpoint this is upsetting. Can we just not trust any numbers anymore?

Polling is definitely getting harder over time, but I wonder if there is more to it than that. I don't buy that it's a "shy Trump voter" thing. But all sorts of other things could be wrong. E.g., figuring out who's likely to turn out.

[The Feral Slasher]

So from the election thread it sounds like some updates hourly....when do we start getting "real" results ?

Texas urban areas shifted heavily Democratic, but the Texas oil patch shifted about as much toward the Republicans. I'm surprised they had any shifting left to do, but perhaps it was a case of heavy turnout.

Don't head this way, all the tequila is gone

[Kevin Seitzer]

Don't head this way, all the tequila is gone

Dammit, I really need a drink.

[Ken]

Polling is definitely getting harder over time, but I wonder if there is more to it than that. I don't buy that it's a "shy Trump voter" thing. But all sorts of other things could be wrong. E.g., figuring out who's likely to turn out.

I don't buy shy Trump voter either, that's a silly theory. But what are the all sorts of things? Figuring out likely voters has always been part of the game. If anything, this year voter turnout is high so that shouldn't be an issue at all. Argh, I want the data to be reliable, I hate uncertainty in data analytics!

[Kevin Seitzer]

I don't buy shy Trump voter either, that's a silly theory. But what are the all sorts of things? Figuring out likely voters has always been part of the game. If anything, this year voter turnout is high so that shouldn't be an issue at all. Argh, I want the data to be reliable, I hate uncertainty in data analytics!

I don't know. Presumably the fact that response rate to surveys is so low comes with all sorts of potential biases. Seems like a huge miss on Cuban Americans in south Florida. I don't feel like I have anywhere close to a handle on it. It will also probably be a lot clearer in a few days or a few weeks when we have actual vote totals instead of the particularly weird way results get reported in a pandemic when mail-in/absentee votes are so much bigger and skew toward one party.

[Kevin Seitzer]

In theory, the oil industry turning out big for Trump in Texas is something that polls should catch? I guess? But if they're not weighting for that kind of thing and they're trying to weight for race, gender, education, etc., maybe they miss something like that? I certainly thought Harris County turning out so big was going to be big for Biden, and so did all the Texas political pundits that I saw, but it doesn't look like that actually happened, even though it did happen in the other big metro areas in the state.

[The Feral Slasher]

So is there any hope at this point ? It sure looks like we are fucked. I do recall hearing that this is what election night would look like, but uncounted ballots would change the results. Uggghh...