*** VD 13 Commentary Thread ***

[Bene Futuis]

I don't understand why you're claiming it can't be lower than the pessimism line? On what basis? Applying the Milky Way rate to the rest of the galaxies in the universe?

Sorry, I screwed that up --- the pessimism line is for the entire universe, not just the Milky Way. The pessimism line applied only to the Milky Way makes it 1 out of 60 billion.

[Bene Futuis]

So, Fresno Bob was claiming Gregg was proved wrong by math. I just don't see that.

But beyond that, I don't see what evidence we have around the bounds for Fl other than what you say, which is that because we know of the existence of one (us), it must be greater than zero. Okay, but...we already know we exist, so that doesn't tell us anything helpful. Since we don't have a two (somewhere else), we really don't have any idea whether it's 1*10^-10 or 1*10^-20 or 1*10^-30, or something else.

I don't understand why you're claiming it can't be lower than the pessimism line? On what basis? Applying the Milky Way rate to the rest of the galaxies in the universe?

Instead of asking "what are the odds that there or ever were intelligent life forms out there", one can ask "what is the very lowest probability that humans are the only intelligent forms of life ever to have existed in the known universe?" The answer to that is the pessimism line --- researchers determined this number by applying what we know about exoplanet data to the universe's 2 x 10 to the 22nd power stars. Here's a link: http://www.rochester.edu/news/are-we...-the-universe/

[Bene Futuis]

Huh, apparently I should have read that thread more carefully. I'm just reiterating stuff other folks have already said. Also, it seems like Fresno Bob wasn't saying the math proves Gregg wrong (and I agree with Johnny that it was a trollish post he put out there), but rather that the math disagrees with 1J's assertion that "(t)here is no other culture visible because there is no other culture in the history of the galaxy." I agree with Fresno Bob on that one, although anyone saying the math proves one thing or the other is obviously untrue.

[johnnya24]

and I agree with Johnny that it was a trollish post he put out there

Not even replying to him, or else the thread gets derailed (again) and he gets what he wants ... that is, everything converted to a religious debate.

[Ken]

We know that the probability of intelligent life in the Milky Way galaxy is at least one in a billion trillion. It cannot be lower than that, unless I am missing something obvious.

Do we? What would you base that 1 in a billion trillion on?

[Ken]

We know that the probability of intelligent life in the Milky Way galaxy is at least one in a billion trillion. It cannot be lower than that, unless I am missing something obvious.

Do we? What would you base that at least 1 in a billion trillion on?

[Kevin Seitzer]

Huh, apparently I should have read that thread more carefully. I'm just reiterating stuff other folks have already said. Also, it seems like Fresno Bob wasn't saying the math proves Gregg wrong (and I agree with Johnny that it was a trollish post he put out there), but rather that the math disagrees with 1J's assertion that "(t)here is no other culture visible because there is no other culture in the history of the galaxy." I agree with Fresno Bob on that one, although anyone saying the math proves one thing or the other is obviously untrue.

Yeah, after re-reading the thread, I think you're right. And I feel dumber after having read it all again. It's not worth it.

[frae]

Looks like the next 4 people to pick are hanging out here this evening so maybe we will get a burst of picks.

[Bene Futuis]

he gets what he wants ... that is, everything converted to a religious debate.

Sounds good to me!

[Bene Futuis]

Yeah, after re-reading the thread, I think you're right. And I feel dumber after having read it all again. It's not worth it.

I bet you're glad I rehashed the same stuff. Good times.

[Ken]

Looks like the next 4 people to pick are hanging out here this evening so maybe we will get a burst of picks.

I'm ready, but about to give up for the night if its not my pick soon.

[revo]

Omigod. And I met Wetteland earlier this summer at a Scranton Railriders game, and told him it was a dark day when the Dodgers traded him. He then perked up and had a huge smile, and said "that was the greatest day of my life. I hated Tommy Lasorda!" Oh man, this is awful news:

"Yankee great John Wetteland, who was MVP of the 1996 World Series as the team’s closer, was arrested this week on charges he sexually abused a male relative, officials said. The 52-year-old abused the boy from October 2004 to October 2006 — when he was between the ages of 4 and 6, according to his arrest affidavit.

He posted $25,000 bond and was released Monday just hours after being taken into custody."

[The Feral Slasher]

Looks like the next 4 people to pick are hanging out here this evening so maybe we will get a burst of picks.

I'm not sure the log is accurate anymore. Or else this place is much more popular than it used to be

[Bene Futuis]

Cool cosmological things I love thinking about:

- The question "what came before the Big Bang" is a nonsensical question. There is no such thing as before the Big Bang.
- The universe is both infinite and expanding.
- It's thought that within 10-30 seconds of the Big Bang, the size of the universe expanded 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 times over.
- They think now that the universe is flat, with no meaningful curvature. Somehow this also means that the universe is infinite both in space and time (?).
- The brightest known star is 8.7 million times as bright as our sun.
- Black holes are fucking amazing.

The scale of the universe is just so mind blowing.

[Bene Futuis]

Do we? What would you base that at least 1 in a billion trillion on?

Not smart enough to do the math myself, but an overview is at the .edu link I posted above. I think the number originates from Carl Sagan, though, iirc.