RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects ("End of Season" Edition)

[rhd]

Thanks for the updated list!

If Baez were eligible, where would he rank?

Thanx as always for the response, James.

I'd probably put him #5 behind Gallo. Still love the big-time power potential and he's already probably in the bigs to stay. But there is a lot of concern about his swing and miss. I happen to think he's elite enough to figure out how much he needs to tone down his plate aggressiveness and settle in as a low BA guy who hits maybe 250 but w 30+ HRs each year.

[rhd]

Thanks. As always, this is great stuff.

Could you expand on

Clint Frazier Cle - OF
Raúl Mondesí KC - SS

J.P. Crawford Phi - SS
Jake Lamb Ari - 3B
Robert Stephenson Cin - SP

The first two are farm hands that slipped. The other three are competing for one spot in the roster, with options for 2016 and 2017.

J

Thanx for the response, onejayhawk.

With Frazier I'm going against the scouts a bit and w Mondesi I'm deferring to them. In their recent League Top 20 lists and accompanying chats, BA is saying scouts definitely like Meadows better than Frazier, which really surprised me. Meadows, while he hit .300 this year, really didnt impress me. Little power, little speed and he was hurt most of the year. Frazier, while he struck out a lot, which is the concern, still walked a fair amount and he displayed a lot more power and speed than Meadows did. So, while Frazier dropped a lot on my list, if I had gone according to the scouts I would have dropped him a lot more. HIs scouting report indicates that he takes a "grip-ip'and-rip-it" approach that advanced pitchers should be able to exploit and that he has a lot to learn defensively in CF also. Meadows' report says he has a contact-oriented approach, advanced understanding of the strike zone w good on-base skills and can be a solid CFer w above-avg speed despite the lack of SBs.

Mondesi's stats are not impressive at all: a .211/.256/.354 slash line. But he played as an 18 y/o for most of the year at Hi-A in a pitchers' park. His report mentions his elite tools, that he projects to hit for average but only fringy power and that he shines defensively. I dont think I'd have him on the list at all if not for the positive reports.

Crawford is considered an elite prospect now. His report says he has average to above tools across the board and should hit for above avg BA and power. He also appears to have plus speed, too.

Lamb had a breakout year in the minors and has had mediocre MLB stats so far. He would seem to project to be an everyday player, since the D'BAcks have nothing to play for but the future, but their depth chart lists Aaron Hill (signed thru 2016) as the primary 3Bman, w Owings being primary at 2B and Gregorius primary at SS. So, there's some uncertainty there, and Lamb may have to have a good spring to secure an everyday job to begin the year. So maybe I have him too high, but I'll leave him where he is for now.

Stephenson had a mediocre year, w the worst HRs and next to worst ERA and walks in the league, so he fell some because of that. But he's still highly regarded and his report says his ceiling is as high as any pitcher in the minors, so he remains high on the list.

[hacko]

Expand on Manuel Margot please. I have own him for a couple of years now.

[rhd]

Expand on Manuel Margot please. I have own him for a couple of years now.

Thanx for the response, hacko.

I'm a little bullish on Margot because of the SBs. They're evidently pretty legit because his scouting report says above avg speed. Also says a 5-tool prospect whose defense may be even above his impressive bat. Says he could develop into a middle of the order bat instead of the top of the order bat that he is now. BA ranked him #8 in a strong Sally League crop, which fueled his recent rise on my list.

[onejayhawk]

Brandon Finnegan is effective in limited exposure in the ALCS (4 IP, 2.25 ERA, 3.44 xFIP). It makes me wish I had taken the day off when he pitched here against Baylor.

Do you expect him to go down in 2015 or for the Royals to season him as a long relief, spot starter with the big club? As a LHP, who can get RHB out, he has real value that way, plus the maturity of a top college performer. How much of a chance does he have to win a rotation spot outright? How does he compare to, say, Giolito?

J

[rhd]

Brandon Finnegan is effective in limited exposure in the ALCS (4 IP, 2.25 ERA, 3.44 xFIP). It makes me wish I had taken the day off when he pitched here against Baylor.

Do you expect him to go down in 2015 or for the Royals to season him as a long relief, spot starter with the big club? As a LHP, who can get RHB out, he has real value that way, plus the maturity of a top college performer. How much of a chance does he have to win a rotation spot outright? How does he compare to, say, Giolito?

J

Thanx for the response, J.

I decided to include Finnegan on the list, based on his minor league season being impressive enough to vault him to the MLB as the 1st 2014 for draftee to make it, on his success so far in MLB, regular and post season, and on the possibility that he becomes a starter. Re: his being a starter, he is small at 5'11, but he's a lefty and KC has already seen the success of another small starter in Ventura. KC should have at least one opening in the rotation next spring since Shields is expected to leave. Other options to fill this opening include Kyle Zimmer and Christian Binford, but Finnegan may have a leg up on both since he's already in MLB and had success. They dont appear to need him in the pen, as they already have Holland, Davis and Herrera, among others. I dont know what KC intends to do, but I would say that if he has a good spring, he stands a decent chance of getting into the rotation. He is not in the same class as Giolito.

[onejayhawk]

He is not in the same class as Giolito.

Of course not. Giolito was drafted in 2012. Finnegan is 2014.

The mental makeup seems to be top drawer. He has three better than average pitches, including a swing-n-miss slider. As a lefty with a good arm behind the plate and a stellar defense behind him, he looks like a real possibility. Is the problem that he has little upside or just no track record?

J

[rhd]

Of course not. Giolito was drafted in 2012. Finnegan is 2014.

The mental makeup seems to be top drawer. He has three better than average pitches, including a swing-n-miss slider. As a lefty with a good arm behind the plate and a stellar defense behind him, he looks like a real possibility. Is the problem that he has little upside or just no track record?

J

I dont know too much about him, but he must have a lot of upside since BA rated him the #18 draft prospect and since he was taken in the first round. The only scouting report I have is from college, which says that he has a wipeout CB, his slider has power and action, his CU is solid-average, his FB velocity dropped some during spring (to 90-95) and that there are some durability concerns. I assume that you're referring to the fact that he's only #125 on my list. But the fact that he's on the list at all is tribute to my regard for him in light of the very little info I have and his very short track record.

[whalewang]

In BP's Cubs Top 10 Prospects list that was released today, they have Russell on top and Bryant #2. Could I get your thoughts on that?

[rhd]

In BP's Cubs Top 10 Prospects list that was released today, they have Russell on top and Bryant #2. Could I get your thoughts on that?

Thanx for the response, whalewang.

I saw that, too. Very interesting but it doesnt change my ranking. I'm not a subscriber so I couldnt read their writeups to find out why they ranked them this way. BP may be the only major prospect list that has that ranking. The only 2 2015 top prospect lists I've seen so far have Bryant the #1 prospect.

BTW, the above list is not my most current list. I posted a new list about a month ago, but it hasnt replaced this one as the "sticky" list. I may do another list around New Year's.

Edit: Sorry, the most current list is the sticky now, so this is the most current list. I'll still probably do a new list around the end of the year.

[Sharky]

rhd, love your work. Thanks for continuing to post/share.

A lot of talk about the White Sox trading away Alexei Ramirez this offseason. Assuming Tim Anderson is the heir apparent, what do you see for his ETA (late 2015 cup of coffee? 2016?)? The White Sox have historically been conservative about promotions, I believe.

Also, what do you think we'll see from Joc Pederson this year? If LAD frees up a spot in the OF for a full-time gig, what is Pederson likely to produce and why?

[rhd]

rhd, love your work. Thanks for continuing to post/share.

A lot of talk about the White Sox trading away Alexei Ramirez this offseason. Assuming Tim Anderson is the heir apparent, what do you see for his ETA (late 2015 cup of coffee? 2016?)? The White Sox have historically been conservative about promotions, I believe.

Also, what do you think we'll see from Joc Pederson this year? If LAD frees up a spot in the OF for a full-time gig, what is Pederson likely to produce and why?

Thanx, as always, for the response, Sharky.

Anderson is a typical hi-upside/hi-risk prospect. Scouts love his upside but his plate discipline is terrible. Yet he still managed somehow to hit .300. I saw him in the CArolina-Calif league AS game this year and I dont think he made contact w the ball even once. I wouldnt think that you'd see him before 2016.

Pederson should be ready for MLB but ut's questionable whether the Dodgers will have a starting spot for him. They'd have to trade not one but 2 of their OFers tgo make room. So I think he'll be a bench guy in MLB in 2015 if he sticks. Maybe 200-300 ABs. Have no idea what he'll do but .250/.340/.420 sounds reasonable.

[james33]

How far did Harold Ramirez drop in your rankings?

http://www.piratesprospects.com/2014/01/pittsburgh-pirates-2014-top-prospects-10-harold-ramirez.html

- makes him sound like a 4th outfielder

I don't know much about him but grabbed him in my deep NL-only league during our offseason waiver wire process.

[rhd]

How far did Harold Ramirez drop in your rankings?

http://www.piratesprospects.com/2014/01/pittsburgh-pirates-2014-top-prospects-10-harold-ramirez.html

- makes him sound like a 4th outfielder

I don't know much about him but grabbed him in my deep NL-only league during our offseason waiver wire process.

Thanx as always for the response, James.

Yes, Ramirez has dropped quite a bit, currently not that close to my top 150. Didnt make a BA League top 20 list at all and was only #10 on BP's Pirates list.

[whalewang]

How does the Diamondbacks signing Tomas effect his current ranking?