another NL keepers question

[mjl]

10-team NL 5x5. My team was a bit of a mess but I stumbled to third place. About half of my offense has zero potential next year or is at $10 because I forgot to FAAB them and had to pick them off waivers, so here's what remains. I can keep 16, three of which have to be minor leaguers, but as you'll see that won't be a problem and I can keep more minor leaguers if I want to. Minor leaguer salaries don't count against the budget.

C Ramos $8 (option year, probably wouldn't extend but not totally sure)
1B Alonso $6 (year 2)
1B Freeman $16 (year 5 of 6)
1B Goldschmidt $20 (year 4 of 6)
2B Gennett $3 (year 2)
2B/3B Rendon $9 (year 2)
2B/OF Alcantara $5 (year 1)
SS Hechevarria $3 (year 2)
SS Owings $5 (year 2)
OF CGomez $15 (year 4 of 4)

C/OF Schwarber $13 (minors)
SS Guerrero $4 (minors)
SS Hanson $5 (minors)
OF Conforto $10 (minors)
OF McKinney $8 (minors)
OF Meadows $10 (minors)

P Collmenter $10 (year 2)
P Familia $5 (year 2)
P Fiers $5 (year 2)
P Harvey $10 (option year - no idea)
P Heaney $5 (year 2)
P Lee $21 (year 2 - was $35ish in auction, got cut and picked up cheaper)
P Niese $4 (year 2)
P Roark $10 (year 2)
P Rondon $10 (year 2)
P Ross $1 (option year - probably extend?)
P Ryu $9 (option year - not sure yet)

P Black $10 (still rookie eligible, could be kept in a minors slot even if he starts the year in the majors)
P Lively $6 (minors)
P Shipley $5 (minors)

P Cishek (topper - I could use a keeper slot on him and get him for $2 less than what everyone else bids him up to, but that's not too exciting)

I don't have to decide until right before the season, so I don't necessarily know on Familia for example, but I like thinking about things.

My inclinations are Ramos, Goldschmidt, Freeman, Rendon, Gennett, Owings, Gomez, Harvey, Lee, Niese, Rondon, Ross, Ryu, Schwarber, and two other minor leaguers, but that's skipping Fiers and Roark among others. I like Alcantara a lot but I got burned by Junior Lake last year.

[joncarlos]

C Ramos $8 (option year, probably wouldn't extend but not totally sure) - I wouldn't extend. Not enough upside. (1)
1B Alonso $6 (year 2) -borderline but probably not in a 10-teamer
1B Freeman $16 (year 5 of 6) - obviously (2)
1B Goldschmidt $20 (year 4 of 6) - obviously (3)
2B Gennett $3 (year 2) - Yes I would keep (4)
2B/3B Rendon $9 (year 2) - obviously (5)
2B/OF Alcantara $5 (year 1) - Yes, I would keep him. Go for the upside. Position flexibility is nice. (6)
SS Hechevarria $3 (year 2) - No
SS Owings $5 (year 2) - Borderline. Would lean towards yes.
OF CGomez $15 (year 4 of 4) - obviously (7)

C/OF Schwarber $13 (minors) - definitely (8 )
SS Guerrero $4 (minors) - maybe
SS Hanson $5 (minors) - maybe
OF Conforto $10 (minors) - maybe
OF McKinney $8 (minors) - maybe
OF Meadows $10 (minors) - maybe

P Collmenter $10 (year 2) - nope
P Familia $5 (year 2) - nope, I don't pay $5 unless he's named closer
P Fiers $5 (year 2) - man I have absolutely no idea.
P Harvey $10 (option year - no idea) - I wouldn't just keep. Extend or throw back. Personally I'd roll the dice. Extend 1 year. (9)
P Heaney $5 (year 2) - I really like him. Strong maybe.
P Lee $21 (year 2 - was $35ish in auction, got cut and picked up cheaper) - Strong maybe... just not sold on him being healthy
P Niese $4 (year 2) - yes (10)
P Roark $10 (year 2) - 3.47 FIP/3.84 xFIP, only 6.3 K/9. 79% strand rate. Only 41.4% GB. Strong trade chip. Probably wouldn't keep. But a maybe.
P Rondon $10 (year 2) - I guess he starts as the closer? 9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 49% GB. Keep I guess. (10)
P Ross $1 (option year - probably extend?) - Yes but I wouldn't extend. Too much health risk. (11)
P Ryu $9 (option year - not sure yet) - Yes but I wouldn't extend. (12)

P Black $10 (still rookie eligible, could be kept in a minors slot even if he starts the year in the majors) - really tempted to keep him as a rookie. Aside from Schwarber he might have the most upside of any farm guy. Maybe.
P Lively $6 (minors) - not a huge fan.
P Shipley $5 (minors) - maybe. like a lot.

So that's 12 yes guys, including 5 pitchers.

The maybes I have listed are all the other rookies, Lee, Heaney, Fiers, Owings. I'd keep Owings just because NL MI can get ugly fast and you can always move Alcantara to OF, and you don't have a lot of bats. Not having a lot of bats can also make things ugly fast. I'd add Heaney. That makes 14 and the last 2 need to be farm guys, so I'd go with Shipley and Hanson. If you want to keep Lee over Owings or Heaney I wouldn't argue. If you can't trade Roark I might keep him over Heaney, but I wouldn't feel great about it.