Early NL Keepers

[luckyheel]

Thanks to some gut-wrenching mid-season trades, I ended up winning my 9 team NL league for the 2nd time in 3 years.

Pitching staff bolstered by full seasons of Kershaw, Strasburg, HAlvarez, 1/4 season of Cueto and 1/2 seasons from Arrieta, Zimmerman and solid closers with various tenures on my team in Melancon, Casilla and Rosenthal. Cole and Wheeler were mixed in there with Rondon. Ended up with the historical best ERA (2.686) and WHIP (1.0742) for the league.

Anyway, long story to get to the point...I ended up trading a $15 Rendon, $10 Polanco, $5 Pederson, $12 Cueto, $11 Rondon away to get guys like Stanton, Tulo, JUpton, Werth, NWalker, JZimmerman so, I don't have a lot of cheap players heading into next year...

All things considered, am I crazy to head into next year spending $188 of $260 on these players:

Gattis-15
Ramos-11
NWalker-18
Stanton-40
JUpton-40
SMarte-20
DStubbs-13
Melancon-11
SCasilla-9
Rosenthal-11

I figure this gives me a VERY good start on hitting and essentially lock up saves for $31. Of course, there is the issue of starting pitching, but, in a 9 team league, I could simply go for the minimum 900 inning goal and abandon wins.

Other 'potential' keepers are Belt-20, Alex Guerrero-6, SCastro-25, Tulo-40, Kershaw-50, JZim-24, Strasburg-38, Arrieta-11, Cole-15, Wheeler-11, WPeralta-15, KHendricks-11, KGiles-11, HAlvarez-12

TIA

[BuckyBuckner]

I like Arrieta at $11 over Upton at $40.

Do you need three closers? I agree they are all keepers but maybe you could look to trade one of them.

[Gregg]

I like Arrieta at $11 over Upton at $40.

Do you need three closers? I agree they are all keepers but maybe you could look to trade one of them.

I agree with this. I also like Zim better than Upton. Then again I wouldn't be keeping a $40 Upton in a 9 team league.

[overkill94]

I like Arrieta at $11 over Upton at $40.

Do you need three closers? I agree they are all keepers but maybe you could look to trade one of them.

Agreed as well.

I wouldn't keep both catchers either, that's one position where you could maybe go cheap with your #2 and save some money for pitching. Not sure I like Stubbs at $13 either - he should be relegated to the bench with Gonzalez healthy going into next year.

[luckyheel]

Thanks for the insight, guys....Stubbs, for me, was a tweener. I think he'll play somewhere given his impressive stats this year and he has a good power/speed combo.

coupl'a follow-up items:

Which C to keep? I like Gattis' power and his BA isn't too bad...Ramos is still going to go for $11 next year, given his 2013 season and the fact he came back pretty well from the wrist injury
Closers: I am always looking to trade and clearly saves would be an opportunity, but if I am planning on dumping wins, I think 3 closers to start the season is essential
Upton: Yeah, $40 is steep...but I was just looking to load up on power.
Arrieta: Is 2014 a turn-around season or a fluke...His 3-year average before this season was a 5.4 ERA and 1.4 WHIP with 7.6 k/9...then, this year, he cuts ERA more than half, lowers WHIP 30% and K/9 skyrockets to 9.6

Also, on the flip side, what about keeping Arrieta, Cole, Wheeler, Alvarez, Kershaw, Casilla, Rosenthal, Melancon and Zimmerman to start the year for $154? Just using this years stats for my league, that would put me 1st in ERA/WHIP/k9 and 3rd in Saves/Wins. Of course, I would likely have to hit jackpot on the hitting side at the draft...

Thanks for all of the input...I'm sure many things will change before next March.

[Gregg]

What boppers will be back in the auction? $40 is just too much to pay for Upton's stats.

I would keep both catchers at their salaries.

If you are not confident in Arrieta he should have good trade value as a stand alone or combined with one of your non keepers for a healthy upgrade.

[BuckyBuckner]

Also, on the flip side, what about keeping Arrieta, Cole, Wheeler, Alvarez, Kershaw, Casilla, Rosenthal, Melancon and Zimmerman to start the year for $154? Just using this years stats for my league, that would put me 1st in ERA/WHIP/k9 and 3rd in Saves/Wins. Of course, I would likely have to hit jackpot on the hitting side at the draft...

Thanks for all of the input...I'm sure many things will change before next March.

I think there is probably a middle ground between the hitters and pitchers. I don't see why you need to go heavy on one or the other. Arrieta, Cole and Wheeler are all at prices that could be kept and maybe Zimmerman though he's a little pricey. I'm sure other owners would have some interest in those guys if you don't want to keep them.

[overkill94]

I would just keep all the guys who provide the best value to maximize your earning potential. Trade one of your closers now and maybe invest in a couple cheap closers-in-waiting - no need to punt a category before the draft even starts; what if starters are going cheap and you miss out on some value?

[Sharky]

I would just keep all the guys who provide the best value to maximize your earning potential. Trade one of your closers now and maybe invest in a couple cheap closers-in-waiting - no need to punt a category before the draft even starts; what if starters are going cheap and you miss out on some value?

This is good advice. Stick with overkill on this!

[luckyheel]

It's 2015 and time to revisit this list...

As I mentioned, I traded alot of my cheap guys away, so, I'm left with this list...can go up to 10 keepers. I won't get into the details, but the prices listed already reflect a mandatory $5 bump in salary to be a keeper and starting last year, all FA pickups began with a $6 salary, which is why you see many $11 keeper prices.

Gattis-15
Ramos-11
NWalker-18
Stanton-40
JUpton-40
SMarte-20
DStubbs-13
Melancon-11
SCasilla-9
Rosenthal-11
Belt-20
Alex Guerrero-6
SCastro-25
Tulo-40
Kershaw-50
JZim-24
Strasburg-38
Arrieta-11
Cole-15
Wheeler-11
WPeralta-15
KHendricks-11
HAlvarez-12

Personally, I think if I have a chance to lock up saves (I know it's generally a crap shoot) and finish in the top 2 in the category for $31, that's a good start (127 led the category and 111 was second).

From a pitching standpoint, I really can't see any of those guys eclipsing the listed keeper prices at the auction. It's a 9 team league and although the Kershaw's and Strasburgs of the league will go for high prices, I doubt guys like Wheeler, Cole, Arietta will go for more than the keeper prices at auction. I think there will be many good bargains at the end game that I can get for <$10, if not <$5. That said, JZimm may be a solid keeper at that price.

From the hitting side, I like Stanton, Gattis, Walker and Marte at those prices...but, I'm just not sure about any of the others anymore. I think Upton will put up numbers equivalent to the keeper price, but I doubt he's bought for that much...same goes for Belt, Tulo and possibly Ramos (although good catchers do tend to go for a premium in my league).

Any renewed opinions on this?

Oh, I've also posted on my AL keepers as well...please check that one out too.

[joncarlos]

Man that's an interesting list. I like the 3 closers and Zimm. It is hard to throw back Arrietta but you know your league better than me. I would definitely keep Marte/Stanton/Gattis (assuming 2 catchers) so that's 7. I don't think Walker is worth keeping at that price. I might honestly roll with those 7- it's not like you have a need to keep a bunch of at value studs just to make sure you get some. I like Belt but I would rather have the flexibility. Same with Ramos.

[luckyheel]

Thanks, JC.

I am leaning toward agreement on your comments; however, Walker was the 3rd best 2b in our league (behind Rendon and Gordon) and those two will absolutely be kept heading into next year. I think Walker goes for at least 20, if not 25 in our league this year. After him, we'd have Kendrick coming in (who I don't trust)..also, guys like Wong and Gennett will be kept. I think Walker might be a keep out of necessity and scarcity.

[mjl]

I'm not saying I wouldn't keep Casilla, but note that the Giants did give Romo $15m/2 yr this winter. I would guess that Casilla starts the season as the closer just because he finished last year that way, but I wouldn't pencil in 40 saves for him.