2k14 Season: Lessons Learned

[revo]

I've gone back and forth on this, but after this season, I'm convinced:

- The "Zero MI" strategy is the way to go. The "get the best players at the MI spots so you have the advantage" strategy is a fallacy. I now believe that you need to focus on getting the best players outside of the middle infield spots (C, 2B, SS, MI) in the draft, and just take what you can get from them in the draft and in-season. While you may be chasing those positions all season long, you'll likely be able to land startable players on waivers or pick up some others in minor trades. It's far more important to get the stud power/speed bats elsewhere than it is to get seemingly low stats from these middle infielders.

If you do spend a lot of resources on these middle infielders and they fail, you're DOA.


- A "save is a save is a save." Bid early and often on closers on waivers. While many do come and go, it's also possible you can land guy(s) who can secure the entire category for you. The winners of my two major fantasy leagues had their entire bullpens shaped by waiver wire closers, and even dominated in saves. Spending a lot on the big names is a waste of resources, since their Ks & ratios may not help in the end for your teams, and all you're really paying for these days is job security.

- Power rules. Only 11(!) players had 30+ HRs this season, so players like Chris Carter -- who was hard to start over the season's first half -- have far more value than meets the eye.

- WHIP kills. You have to pay far more attention to a pitcher's WHIP than in the past, because as pitchers rule this era, the WHIPs we're all accustomed to being "solid" are in fact killing your chances. In my 16-team redraft, ONE team had a WHIP of >1.30, whereas five seasons ago, a full half the teams did. Pitchers who throw a lot of innings and have WHIPs of 1.25+ must be avoided, and if you end up with one, you can likely sell them to someone who hasn't been paying attention over the last 5 years.

[Controller Jacobs]

I've gone back and forth on this, but after this season, I'm convinced:

- The "Zero MI" strategy is the way to go. The "get the best players at the MI spots so you have the advantage" strategy is a fallacy. I now believe that you need to focus on getting the best players outside of the middle infield spots (C, 2B, SS, MI) in the draft, and just take what you can get from them in the draft and in-season. While you may be chasing those positions all season long, you'll likely be able to land startable players on waivers or pick up some others in minor trades. It's far more important to get the stud power/speed bats elsewhere than it is to get seemingly low stats from these middle infielders.
...

I think this is somewhat dependent on league size and roster definitions.
If you're in a mixed league with 16-18 teams and 3 IF/5 OF, I do believe the OF are *way* more shallow,
Teams start 60 IF and 90 OF, but:
- Fantasy owners should want at least 1 decent reserve OF,
- More OF then IF will end up at fantasy UT/DH,
- The bottom half of IF are likely to have limited upside compared to the bottom half OF. You're probably hoping to get lucky in Runs/OBP in IF, vs HR/SB with OF.

[chancellor]

The "Zero MI" strategy is the way to go. The "get the best players at the MI spots so you have the advantage" strategy is a fallacy. I now believe that you need to focus on getting the best players outside of the middle infield spots (C, 2B, SS, MI) in the draft, and just take what you can get from them in the draft and in-season. While you may be chasing those positions all season long, you'll likely be able to land startable players on waivers or pick up some others in minor trades. It's far more important to get the stud power/speed bats elsewhere than it is to get seemingly low stats from these middle infielders.

I see where you're coming from, but I don't agree in part. IMO, bidding high on catchers is where disaster is most likely to strike. Agree. however, in deeper leagues that OF is becoming a black hole much faster than it used to, so getting some quality there is critical.

A "save is a save is a save." Bid early and often on closers on waivers. While many do come and go, it's also possible you can land guy(s) who can secure the entire category for you. The winners of my two major fantasy leagues had their entire bullpens shaped by waiver wire closers, and even dominated in saves. Spending a lot on the big names is a waste of resources, since their Ks & ratios may not help in the end for your teams, and all you're really paying for these days is job security.

Agree with this in a shallow league, though I usually do go after one of the high-K closers as an anchor. In my deeper league, that won't work since not only are closers taken, so are closers in waiting.

Power rules. Only 11(!) players had 30+ HRs this season, so players like Chris Carter -- who was hard to start over the season's first half -- have far more value than meets the eye.

Agree completely.

WHIP kills. You have to pay far more attention to a pitcher's WHIP than in the past, because as pitchers rule this era, the WHIPs we're all accustomed to being "solid" are in fact killing your chances. In my 16-team redraft, ONE team had a WHIP of >1.30, whereas five seasons ago, a full half the teams did. Pitchers who throw a lot of innings and have WHIPs of 1.25+ must be avoided, and if you end up with one, you can likely sell them to someone who hasn't been paying attention over the last 5 years.

Good call, and this is the area I've gone away from Shandler's advice in spades. I'll take a low-WHIP, low-K guy before the high-WHIP, high-K guys now almost all the time. I call this "WHIP death by CJ Wilson", an experience I had once too many times.

[DMT]

Agreed on all points Revo.

A corollary to your WHIP lesson is the increasing importance of getting one of the top-10 SPs. Sure, great pitchers can be found every year on the wire, but if you're playing catch up from the start, you'll have a harder time competing in pitching compared to years past.

How many of your money spots didn't have at least one of the stud SPs (Kershaw, Felix, Sale, Wainwright, Bumgarner, Strasburg, Cueto, Kluber, Price, Scherzer, Darvish)? In my league, only two of them were not rostered by one of the top four teams, and Kluber was dealt in a dump deal.

I have Felix at $36 and in years past I'd never have considered keeping such an expensive SP, but likely will this year (along with Strasburg).

[mjl]

for what it's worth, I led RJEL in ERA and was second in WHIP. I got about 40% of Price's season, 30% of Scherzer's, and 75% of Zimmerman's via midseason trades. I had Fister and Smyly the whole way, Lynn for most of the season, and Bailey for the good part of his.

Of the other teams that did particularly well in the pitching ratio categories, one was anchored by Felix and Lester, and the other by Wainwright, Shields, and Samardzija, with some contributions from Tanaka and Jose Fernandez as well.

I am at least considering keeping some subset of Price $32, Scherzer $31, and Zimmerman $28.

[revo]

I see where you're coming from, but I don't agree in part. IMO, bidding high on catchers is where disaster is most likely to strike. Agree. however, in deeper leagues that OF is becoming a black hole much faster than it used to, so getting some quality there is critical.

I completely agree that spending a lot of resources on a top-flight catcher could be a recipe for disaster.

Maybe using just using the 2014 season is too short a timeframe, but the most of the MIs that were taken early in drafts put up pedestrian numbers, or didn't outperform their lower drafted brethren. Besides Altuve, Desmond and Cano (who still underperformed his usual stats), you were just as likely to nail a solid player late than you were early.

[Gregg]

Our NL champ went into the season with a $20 Cueto and a $15 Chapman. He then traded for a $40 Kershaw on 6/2. He solidified it by making some late July and August trades to further build his staff.

[Pogues]

Lesson I learned is trust myself with my auction buys and don't start chasing lesser talent in April.

I bought Revere for $1, and when Bourn went down to an injury early in the season I picked up Brantley (for $1). When Bourn came back...I dropped Brantley.

Also had a $2 Hamilton (keeper), traded him early on for a $5 J.Zimmerman. Haven't been upset about that trade, but my early outfielders were pretty darn good...well those $4 at least.

[The Dane]

MI is a wasteland, by and large. People tend to overpay for real stats there because they fear the null, especially in deep leagues. If I'm not going to get what I feel to be a bargain for a full-time MI, I'm perfectly happy to take the $1 zero and work to replace him via FAAB or trade as the season progresses. It's more work, sure, but I feel it generates more stats-per-dollar. In shallower leagues, you can't have holes, but I find that the difference between the $20 MI and the $3 (or even $1) is much closer with MIs than with CI or OF.

Just my take.

[revo]

In redraft leagues, I'm going to start adhering to a few rules on rookies:

1) since the current trend is not having rookies come up until June, I'm not going to take chances on any until the final few rounds.

2) If the player isn't up at the All-Star break, it's probably time to cut bait.

3) if a prospect lover comes along, it's probably best to deal the rook for a veteran player.


I got stuck holding a season-long bag on Archie Bradley & Alex Guerrero, and held a couple others (Syndergaard, Pederson) for extended periods.

[Judge Jude]

good post

in my very deep NL-only league, with 15 NL teams and more pitchers per NL team than ever on 25-man rosters, my older strategy of having replaceable OF bums doesn't work as well - you can no longer be confident of getting the Denorfia types who were useful FA fodder 10 years ago. but it's also true that you may never get a decent INF bat all year (even though I got Gordon as FA last August, claimed Harrison off waiver wire in May, and got Panik as trade throw-in in August).

fyi, I spent 27 on Posey and 20 on YMolina in the first round of our auction this year (and yeah, I finished 9th so what do I know).

I haven't spent double digits on a closer in an auction in many years. Betancourt, Cishek, Hawkins, and friends in recent years were all FA pickups. That said, if my league stops overvaluing so-so closers, I might have to zig again. Am watching it.

Agreed 100 pct on power - made a scrambling mid-auction trade for Jay Bruce 38 (!). wound up as first team in my league not to hit 100 HR since 1993.

I owned Maddux in all of his later years because he was the most extreme "so-so ERA, good Ratio" guy and thus undervalued. Even today, many owners still draft based much more on ERA than Ratio. They often go hand-in-hand, but not always....