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  • #1

    Sentiment and Keepers

    I know most of you don't play h2h, so this might not be an issue for any of you, but have any of you fallen into the trap, much like major league teams often do, of rewarding a player for past performances for you, especially during a championship season, with a keeper spot or a contract extension, even though you know they might not be your best investment option long term?

    Howie Kendrick got me thinking about this with his recent explosion. I am in my h2h finals, and he was so huge for me to end last week, and he has begun this two week finals so strong, if he keeps this up, I'm going to keep him at cost for next year just based on the good will I have for that guy for raking for me when it counts.

    I mean, I guess what I'm asking is do you guys develop favorite players in roto, independent of real team affiliations, based on your perception that they have given you what you need when you needed it in the past, as much as or even more so than their overall stats?

    I suppose this relates a lot to injury prone guys too. There are guys who have had great years for me, but went out at just the wrong moment and burnt me, and it soured me on them. And then there are guys, like Kendrick, that sort of plugged along all year producing at or just below his costs that earned a spot as a keeper for me based on stepping up when it counts more for me late in the season. At this point, I can't see not keeping that guy, even if it means making some offseason moves to make room for him. I've developed similar devotion to key players from my past championship teams, even when I knew I was probably riding a career year from said player. I didn't really care...I just loved that guy for getting me the championship, and wanted to roster him again (within reason, of course...I'm not gonna let folks bid me up crazy high on dudes they know I have developed man-crushes on).

    So, I know this is not the ideal strategy to win again and again, but it hasn't really hurt me, and I go with it, because it gives me more pleasure to roster guys I like/have done well for me in the past. Is this your approach, or are you the Bill Bellicheck type to move on from last year's heroes to find the best value next year in all cases?
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  • #2
    I will only let my emotions act as a tiebreaker. If a player I like for any of the reasons you outlined above is clearly an inferior keeper, I will toss him back. But if they are in the same vicinity of value, I'll go with the guy I like.

    Some of the guys I have for this very reason: Starling Marte & Jason Kipnis. I drafted both of them long ago in the RJEL minors draft, of which I left after last season. In my non-RJ league, I made 3-for-1 deals to get both. Another guy is Beltre who is one of my favorite players. I kept him at 29 this year and kept him over several others who I felt were similar quality keepers.
    If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
    - Terence McKenna

    Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

    How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

    Comment

    • #3
      I have never developed any man-crushes on a player and have, to my best recollection, never kept a player for any other reason than i felt it was wise for me to keep him based on his price and numbers. I don't make choices based on my heart.

      That being said...I will have a hard time not paying whatever it takes to get Trout next year as I have owned him the last three years and, barring an epic collapse, will have won my league each of those years.
      "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

      Comment

      • #4
        Originally posted by Mithrandir View Post
        That being said...I will have a hard time not paying whatever it takes to get Trout next year as I have owned him the last three years and, barring an epic collapse, will have won my league each of those years.
        wait, wait, wait. you couldn't stop bitching about him in the other thread...
        "Instead of all of this energy and effort directed at the war to end drugs, how about a little attention to drugs which will end war?" Albert Hofmann

        Comment

        • #5
          Originally posted by bryanbutler View Post
          wait, wait, wait. you couldn't stop bitching about him in the other thread...
          Well he has been a bit of a disappointment this year...at least when you look at his actual stats compared to his projections.
          "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

          Comment

          • #6
            Originally posted by Mithrandir View Post
            Well he has been a bit of a disappointment this year...at least when you look at his actual stats compared to his projections.
            yeesh. only in SB, and a *slight* hit in OBA (less BB).

            Code:
                         AB  H   BB  HR  RBI SB R   OBA    SLG    EB
projected    580 177 91  28  97  27 113 0.407  0.541  137
current      547 157 73  32  102 14 99  0.372  0.552  145
projected    615 177 82  36  115 16 111 0.372  0.552  163
            (my own preseason projections, but i'll bet most are similar).

            he's actually *surpassed* power projections, including RBI.

            if you're going to whine about 10 SB, then, well... oh, wait, it's mith...
            "Instead of all of this energy and effort directed at the war to end drugs, how about a little attention to drugs which will end war?" Albert Hofmann

            Comment

            • #7
              Originally posted by Sour Masher View Post
              I know most of you don't play h2h, so this might not be an issue for any of you, but have any of you fallen into the trap, much like major league teams often do, of rewarding a player for past performances for you, especially during a championship season, with a keeper spot or a contract extension, even though you know they might not be your best investment option long term?

              Howie Kendrick got me thinking about this with his recent explosion. I am in my h2h finals, and he was so huge for me to end last week, and he has begun this two week finals so strong, if he keeps this up, I'm going to keep him at cost for next year just based on the good will I have for that guy for raking for me when it counts.

              I mean, I guess what I'm asking is do you guys develop favorite players in roto, independent of real team affiliations, based on your perception that they have given you what you need when you needed it in the past, as much as or even more so than their overall stats?

              I suppose this relates a lot to injury prone guys too. There are guys who have had great years for me, but went out at just the wrong moment and burnt me, and it soured me on them. And then there are guys, like Kendrick, that sort of plugged along all year producing at or just below his costs that earned a spot as a keeper for me based on stepping up when it counts more for me late in the season. At this point, I can't see not keeping that guy, even if it means making some offseason moves to make room for him. I've developed similar devotion to key players from my past championship teams, even when I knew I was probably riding a career year from said player. I didn't really care...I just loved that guy for getting me the championship, and wanted to roster him again (within reason, of course...I'm not gonna let folks bid me up crazy high on dudes they know I have developed man-crushes on).

              So, I know this is not the ideal strategy to win again and again, but it hasn't really hurt me, and I go with it, because it gives me more pleasure to roster guys I like/have done well for me in the past. Is this your approach, or are you the Bill Bellicheck type to move on from last year's heroes to find the best value next year in all cases?
              Howie will be glad to hear of this.

              I don't think it works for me in the positive, but I can get so soured that I won't take a player. Years ago I even started a thread called "Not even for a buck."

              Comment

              • #8
                Originally posted by bryanbutler View Post
                yeesh. only in SB, and a *slight* hit in OBA (less BB).

                Code:
                             AB  H   BB  HR  RBI SB R   OBA    SLG    EB
projected    580 177 91  28  97  27 113 0.407  0.541  137
current      547 157 73  32  102 14 99  0.372  0.552  145
projected    615 177 82  36  115 16 111 0.372  0.552  163
                (my own preseason projections, but i'll bet most are similar).

                he's actually *surpassed* power projections, including RBI.

                if you're going to whine about 10 SB, then, well... oh, wait, it's mith...
                Huge hit in average..he is 40.points less than the last two years
                "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

                Comment

                • #9
                  Similarly, on the team I took over from DMT, I had Mike Olt as a minor league keeper and had a couple people ask about trading for him before the season, so I did some more research on him and talked myself into liking him so much that I took him in a 12-team mixed.
                  In the best of times, our days are numbered, anyway. And it would be a crime against Nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were presumably designed in the first place, and which the gravest statesmen and the hoarsest politicians hope to make available to all men in the end: I mean the opportunity to do good work, to fall in love, to enjoy friends, to sit under trees, to read, to hit a ball and bounce the baby.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Originally posted by mjl View Post
                    Similarly, on the team I took over from DMT, I had Mike Olt as a minor league keeper and had a couple people ask about trading for him before the season, so I did some more research on him and talked myself into liking him so much that I took him in a 12-team mixed.
                    Me too. I won him at auction for $13 bucks in NL only keeper league.

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Originally posted by mjl View Post
                      Similarly, on the team I took over from DMT, I had Mike Olt as a minor league keeper and had a couple people ask about trading for him before the season, so I did some more research on him and talked myself into liking him so much that I took him in a 12-team mixed.
                      Ah yes, Mike Olt. See, he's a Cub, so the opposite effect was stronger.
                      If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
                      - Terence McKenna

                      Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

                      How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Mithrandir View Post
                        Huge hit in average..he is 40.points less than the last two years
                        as i said, hit in OBA (also average, though it's only 17 points, not 40 - if you were *assuming* [or projecting] that he'd hit .329 this year, i'd be shocked).

                        still the best player in the league, in fantasy.
                        "Instead of all of this energy and effort directed at the war to end drugs, how about a little attention to drugs which will end war?" Albert Hofmann

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Originally posted by bryanbutler View Post
                          as i said, hit in OBA (also average, though it's only 17 points, not 40 - if you were *assuming* [or projecting] that he'd hit .329 this year, i'd be shocked).

                          still the best player in the league, in fantasy.
                          .
                          Yes he is the best. Biggest reason I have won titles.

                          He hit over.320 the last two years so why wouldn't you expect the same this year?
                          Last edited by Mithrandir; 09-09-2014, 08:58 PM.
                          "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Mithrandir View Post
                            .

                            He hit over.320 the last two years so why wouldn't you expect the same this year?
                            too hard to maintain; see MJ's recent post about it. i've posted my pre-season projections - .305 AVG, which is still .017 above his current, but more realistic than .320.
                            "Instead of all of this energy and effort directed at the war to end drugs, how about a little attention to drugs which will end war?" Albert Hofmann

                            Comment

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