Familia closing in 2015?

[FBP]

My partner and I are sitting on a low cost Familia and were wondering about his chances to close in 2015. We are in a NL only league. As I see it, Familia's Peripheral stats are much better than Mejia's and there has been some discussion about Mejia going back to the rotation in 2015. On the other hand, Parnell will be coming back at some time in 2015 and then there is Vic Black. Any insight?

[The Dane]

That whole pen is a gamble for saves, for two main reasons: 1) No one is really THAT much better than any of the others. 2) There are several viable options.

This means that not only is it very difficult to guess who might close, but the one that does get the job will be on a short leash. Also, don't forget Torres and whatever starter gets moved to make room for Harvey's return. And, Mejia has been nursing an injury that has possibly hurt his stats. It's a stuffed pen and not a really bad one.

I have two shares of Familia and two of Mejia, so that should tell you where my instincts are trending. But, the most likely scenario is that Parnell returns and gets the job. Whether he holds onto it after that point, who knows.

I suggest you invest lightly, because this can go any number of directions. Familia is as good a play as any, in my opinion.

[revo]

Agree with Dane here. This can go any number of ways, but Familia was a starter until this season, so I'd hedge on him. I think the Mets ultimately want Vic Black to be the guy.

[The Dane]

I think the Mets ultimately want Vic Black to be the guy.

Yep.

You know, most of the time when a closer situation is this up in the air, I usually just stay away because while trolling for saves you end up rostering a ton of bad pitchers, and most of the time, the gem falls to someone else. It's maddening. However, this Mets pen has really been a gold mine. I've had two shares of Mejia, Familia, Black and one of Torres and Edgin. (I'm in deep NLs, mostly). Edgin hasn't pitched a lot of innings, but has given AWESOME ratios for no investment. Torres has 5 wins, 2 saves, and 83 Ks, and was had for nothing. Black has been quietly great with good ratios and almost a K an inning. Familia and Mejia both took more investment, but the most I paid for either of them was $9 for Familia and even though he's been kicked around this season, out of the rotation, mired in middle relief and then digging his way out, he's still pitched 61 innings of 1.97 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 56 Ks, 2 wins, and 4 saves. It's not exactly what I thought I was paying $9 for, but I'll take it, and if he ends up closing next season, then I have a great keeper.

The Mets are not a good organization, but that pen is stocked with good options.

But then, if history is any indication, half of them will implode next year and be worthless.