2015 keepers

[DMT]

12-team mixed 5x5 with OB & Slug replacing BA & HR. 10 keepers total. B players can be extended $5/year or just play out 2015 at same salary. SPs tend to be overvalued.

Goldschmidt 14-O16----\
Kipnis 8-O15 -------------> Must all be kept
Strasburg 13-O15-------/

These next four I'm pretty sure about.

Alcides-1A (seems like a no-brainer)
Porcello-1A (ditto)
Kazmir-11A (he's been money but given his history will he be able to repeat at this level)
S Marte-5B (relatively disappointing year but can still make amends with a strong finish...extend a year?)

Here's where it gets interesting, can only keep 3 from this list.

D Santana-5A (Playing way better than he did in the minors, can he sustain it? It seems like every game he does something to help your fantasy team. It would lock up all 3 MI spots with Kipnis & Alcides but for only $14).
J Upton-32A (His droughts have been getting shorter and he'll be 27 next year).
Felix-36A (I hate paying a lot for pitchers and my most expensive P this year was an $18 Darvish, but Felix is as close to a lock as it gets).
Street-3B (I rarely keep closers because of their high turnover and cheap prices, but he's been awesome).
Span-5A (He seems like a guy I can get back for about the same price, but clearly he's a bargain at $5 if he repeats).
Beltre-29B (One of my favorite players but he'll be 36 and probably won't go for more than $30)
A Garcia-1A (I couldn't give this guy away in numerous trades and am happy about that. His nickname is 'mini-Miggy' and he's been playing well in very limited action due to injury).
Bailey-9B (I had high hopes for him but not sure I can keep him again)
Miggy-58A (down year makes me doubt he'll go for as much)

[chancellor]

I'd keep all four of your "pretty sures" and extend Marte a year.

I'd keep Felix, Santana and Garcia, but I have not looked at Santana's BABIP and other signatures of whether he's been exceptionally lucky.

[overkill94]

If Darvish only went for $18 then Felix at $36 doesn't sound like much of a bargain. I'd do Santana, Street, and Garcia and use the money saved on them to get Felix back.

[Sour Masher]

If Darvish only went for $18 then Felix at $36 doesn't sound like much of a bargain. I'd do Santana, Street, and Garcia and use the money saved on them to get Felix back.

I assume 18 was a carry over keeper price. Given inflation and the stability Felix provides, I'd keep him at that price. Unless, of course, Darvish really did go for 18 on your open market.

[DMT]

Darvish was a keeper...he will go for at least $30 next year.

[overkill94]

Oops, I misread that - yeah, I'd keep Felix then and would think about keeping the three I mentioned instead of Kazmir. He's been great this year but something still scares me about a guy who's had such an up-and-down career.

[DMT]

Thanks fellas...I'm surprised not a single vote for Upton. It wouldn't surprise me if he's a top-10 player next year.

[cardboardbox]

I'm surprised in a 12 team league that you dont have more cheap guys to keep. Did you trade them away? I favor keeping cheap hitters over at value studs. All but Kazmir in your 2nd group are keepers, not sure about Kazmir but probably. The rest I'd go Santana, Garcia, and Street.

[DMT]

I'm surprised in a 12 team league that you dont have more cheap guys to keep. Did you trade them away? I favor keeping cheap hitters over at value studs. All but Kazmir in your 2nd group are keepers, not sure about Kazmir but probably. The rest I'd go Santana, Garcia, and Street.

Yea, I traded away Polanco, Taveras, Mesoraco, Jansen, and Paxton in dump deals. I'm currently up leading by 12 points.

[Gregg]

Thanks fellas...I'm surprised not a single vote for Upton. It wouldn't surprise me if he's a top-10 player next year.

I haven't answered yet as I wanted more time to think about it.

My first list was Santana, Upton, Felix, Street. This is not my order but the order you have them listed in. I am not as high as others on Garcia, but he is only a buck.

My no brainer is Street. If there is going to be high turnover in real baseball I like to go into the auction with at least one solid cheap closer. He fits the bill.

Next up would be Santana. Filling up all 3 infield spots before auction is not a bad thing. Filling them with $14 worth of keepers is a good thing. I also reason that in order to keep Upton and Felix (which I strongly considered) I would not only have to drop Santana, but spend $68 to keep both. This does not seem like the best way to go. So Santana is in.

Than only leaves me with one spot for Felix, Upton, Garcia. Nice problem to have, but a problem to be sure. If Garcia is the stud in the making that some in here think he is it makes it real tempting to keep him at a buck. I am thinking it does not matter how much the Pen likes him, but how much your league likes him. You said you couldn't give him away in a trade. Now this may be because of injury or maybe he is one of those players that your league is slow to like. Based on you league dynamics I am thinking I put him back in and get him back at auction for a reasonable price. I would rather have one of Felix or Upton going in.

This brings me to the very hard decision of choosing Felix vs. Upton. I usually go with the hitter. In this case I think I make the exception. I do not think Felix goes for the same price at auction next year. I think Upton may be within a few bucks. Felix and Kershaw are the two best pitchers. I can get/keep Felix under $40, I have to keep him. He is such a difference maker that I could not put him back in.

So if it was my team. I am keeping Street, Santana, and Felix. Bidding hard at auction for Upton, and expecting to get Garcia at a reasonable price.

[DMT]

So if it was my team. I am keeping Street, Santana, and Felix. Bidding hard at auction for Upton, and expecting to get Garcia at a reasonable price.

Thanks for the analysis.

[DMT]

Upton is now the 15th ranked player according to CBS...there's a very decent chance he'll end up in the top 10. Does that change anyone's opinions? If not, what would he have to do to make your list?

[Gregg]

Upton is now the 15th ranked player according to CBS...there's a very decent chance he'll end up in the top 10. Does that change anyone's opinions? If not, what would he have to do to make your list?

I don't think he can do anything given the parameters you have set.

I don't play mixed but Upton is 7th ranked on CBS NL only with Kershaw being #1. In the AL only Felix is #1 with Trout #2. I would imagine that Felix is in the top 5 if you combine them.

We only get to pick 3 off your list, salary has to be taken into consideration. It is in the salary that makes Street and Santana better keepers than Upton. If either Santana or Street were 32 they would be no brainer throw backs.

What we don't get to see is who in your league has X contracts? Is Kershaw back in or Trout? Where does Upton fall on the list of best players back in the auction? How much money will others have to spend. What does Upton's price go to? Could he go for 42 or more?

You have spent $102 of your budget with the keepers you said you were keeping and the 3 that I picked. That is with a $5 extension for Marte. You can afford to keep Upton, but at what cost? If we have to keep it within the "pick 3" from this list, I still keep Felix (bigger impact) than Upton. I still keep Street and Santana above Upton (bigger profit).

If you are like me, the temptation is to swap out Felix for Upton and try to snag some good pitching at the auction. I don't think Felix is the one to do that with. He will make a bigger impact on your stats than Upton. But what if we broke the rules and looked beyond the list you gave us?

Cardboard Box said he wasn't sure about Kazmir but probably would keep. That got me to thinking. I agree that Kazmir is a keeper at $11. But what could you get him back for at auction? Maybe he is the one to cut to make the Roster spot for Upton? Your salary goes up $22 to 124 with still plenty of money to get Garcia and him back.

Felix is not the one to cut for Upton, but maybe Kazmir is?

[DMT]

I don't think he can do anything given the parameters you have set.

I don't play mixed but Upton is 7th ranked on CBS NL only with Kershaw being #1. In the AL only Felix is #1 with Trout #2. I would imagine that Felix is in the top 5 if you combine them.

We only get to pick 3 off your list, salary has to be taken into consideration. It is in the salary that makes Street and Santana better keepers than Upton. If either Santana or Street were 32 they would be no brainer throw backs.

What we don't get to see is who in your league has X contracts? Is Kershaw back in or Trout? Where does Upton fall on the list of best players back in the auction? How much money will others have to spend. What does Upton's price go to? Could he go for 42 or more?

You have spent $102 of your budget with the keepers you said you were keeping and the 3 that I picked. That is with a $5 extension for Marte. You can afford to keep Upton, but at what cost? If we have to keep it within the "pick 3" from this list, I still keep Felix (bigger impact) than Upton. I still keep Street and Santana above Upton (bigger profit).

If you are like me, the temptation is to swap out Felix for Upton and try to snag some good pitching at the auction. I don't think Felix is the one to do that with. He will make a bigger impact on your stats than Upton. But what if we broke the rules and looked beyond the list you gave us?

Cardboard Box said he wasn't sure about Kazmir but probably would keep. That got me to thinking. I agree that Kazmir is a keeper at $11. But what could you get him back for at auction? Maybe he is the one to cut to make the Roster spot for Upton? Your salary goes up $22 to 124 with still plenty of money to get Garcia and him back.

Felix is not the one to cut for Upton, but maybe Kazmir is?

Just looking at the top pages for hitters and pitchers, the best available will be: Miggy, Stanton, Gomez, Ad Jones, Bautista, V Martinez (kicking myself for not extending him last year to $6), Beltre, Cespedes, Wainwright, Scherzer, and Darvish. Kershaw will likely be kept at $39.

But I agree the question shouldn't be Upton vs. Felix, and the alternative I'm thinking is Street. First, closers are devalued in a 12-team mixed league; last year Kimbrel went for $16 and only a couple other closers went for over $10 (Robertson-14, Rosenthal-15). Given that tendency, I seriously doubt Street will go for more $13. Holland and Chapman are both on dead contracts as well. Second, because of that tendency, I generally consider closers as a last resort from a keeper standpoint. Third, he's a B contract and the other finalists are all A. In comparison with Kazmir, the likelihood of him going for $21 is greater than Street going for $13. In comparison with Kazmir, the likelihood of him going for $21 is greater than Street going for $13.

Depending on how Garcia finishes the year, I don't think I can pass him at a buck either. In just 46 ABs, he has an .868 OPS with 3 HR, 10 RBI, 9 R. That's 30/100/100 over a full season. Even though you can't just project those numbers over a full season, he could easily go for $15 next year if just one other person targets him.

I will of course try to package a 2- or even 3-for-1 deal. Last year I traded Greinke-23A, Liriano-5A and Taijuan Walker-5A for Marte-5A. The year before I got Darvish-18A for Addison Reed-5A and John Jay-1A. I really like Kipnis but he hasn't had a good season (granted, it's likely due to injuries). I'm just not sure Kipnis + Street (+Span/Bailey) will land me any significant upgrades and I'd still have to cut Kazmir or Garcia. Perhaps a better solution is to lobby to increase our keeper lists .

[Gregg]

Your league dynamic concerning closers is much different than ours. Given this information it would be an easy choice to keep another player over Street. So if you are keeping Kazmir and we go back to the pick 3 list...

I still like Santana, and Felix as the first two. If you now include Garcia for a buck and I certainly wouldn't blame you. You now have Upton out again. Who do you like better Kaz or Upton?