Moving the needle - math to the end of the season

[swampdragon]

I am wondering how much of an impact trades have at this point - especially in AVG - WHIP - ERA


In my league people owner's swap draft order picks for their value
because we only keep 3 players and they are kept in their draft spot for 3 seasons (round 5 and above only)

I have been offered Cano for LaStella - at first it looks like a no brainer to take it
BUT
I am not likely to move much in
RUNS - above and below are pretty far and what really is the differential between the two
HRS - what really is the differential?
SBs - what really is the differential
RBIs - no one is going to catch me

AVG - here is where I need to gain - but realistically how much can one person effect the team performance for the season? Has anyone done the math?
what is LaStella bats .280 here on out and Cano bats .305? can that impact be calculated - I am at 268 right now

season totals hits/at bats through 110 games
1317/4912

Does my logic follow?

multiply 1317 * (162/110) to get the total number of hits continuing as is
multiply 4912 * (162/110) to get the total number of at bats continuing as is

1.47

1317*1.47 = 1936
4912*1.47 = 7221
.2681 - if same rate - but should improve a bit with trade acquisitions

La Stella 37/133 projected
Cano 56/185 projected

1936-37
7221 - 133
numbers without LaStella

1936 -37 + 56
7221 - 133 + 185
numbers with Cano

1955/7273
.2688

so moving batting average up seems very difficult unless you are replacing a black hole with a superstar

thoughts?

[Pauly]

aside from the math, someone moved ahead of me into first this weekend by moving up 4 points in WHIP on one day. So it's possible

[Judge Jude]

you can cocktail-napkin this by roughly adding one-third of the stats to your current stats, and making modest adjustments where an owner added a lot of offense, or lost it. it takes a little doing, but it's worth it. and you don't have to go nuts on the rate stats - if a rival is barely behind 3 teams and he just made a trade to get a potential batting champ and got rid of his dead wood, yeah, he may get all 3 pts.

the easiest are SV or SB, of course. but most importantly, see if there is a wide path for one particular owner across the board - there often is.

BBHQ has a good tool for this, actually.

[swampdragon]

you can cocktail-napkin this by roughly adding one-third of the stats to your current stats, and making modest adjustments where an owner added a lot of offense, or lost it. it takes a little doing, but it's worth it. and you don't have to go nuts on the rate stats - if a rival is barely behind 3 teams and he just made a trade to get a potential batting champ and got rid of his dead wood, yeah, he may get all 3 pts.

the easiest are SV or SB, of course. but most importantly, see if there is a wide path for one particular owner across the board - there often is.

BBHQ has a good tool for this, actually.

but my contention is that replacing a .280 hitter with a .300 hitter for the rest of the season barely makes a difference

[Todd Zola]

but my contention is that replacing a .280 hitter with a .300 hitter for the rest of the season barely makes a difference

All depends on where you are in the standings.

Easier math is taking .020 and dividing by 14 then dividing by three. The 14 represents 1/14th of an active roster (which makes the assumption of equal at bats) and the three is for 1/3rd of the season remaining. That adds on .0005. Looking at my leagues, there's usually one spot where that gets an extra point, sometimes two. You just have to be in that spot.

There are actually more points gained/lost in ERA and WHIP than any other category, even on the last day. BA is a little less but still occurs.

Doing similar math with a counting stat -- say HR, if you're 2 behind you actually need to add 3 to tie, 4 to pass - if the proverbial all else stays the same. The counting stats gaps need to be prorated (of course, practically speaking, all else doesn't stay the same).

But for discussion purposes, let's say it does. To get those 4 HR, you need to replace a 12 HR hitter with a 24 HR hitter - for the season, of course. The 12 guy should hit four more while the 24 guy should hit eight. Again, on paper, without considering collateral damage or any other roster changes.

[cavebird]

No, replacing a .280 hitter with a .300 hitter for one-third of the season won't affect your AVG much. Hell, doing it for the whole season won't affect your average much. That being said, I can't imagine that LaStella is a good keeper in any league where you can only keep three, so why not? Cano has a much better chance of hitting .340 or something here on out than LaStella, and what are you giving up?

[cardboardbox]

All depends on where you are in the standings.

Easier math is taking .020 and dividing by 14 then dividing by three. The 14 represents 1/14th of an active roster (which makes the assumption of equal at bats) and the three is for 1/3rd of the season remaining. That adds on .0005.

This is a great idea, never thought of it this way. Genius!

[Todd Zola]

No, replacing a .280 hitter with a .300 hitter for one-third of the season won't affect your AVG much. Hell, doing it for the whole season won't affect your average much. That being said, I can't imagine that LaStella is a good keeper in any league where you can only keep three, so why not? Cano has a much better chance of hitting .340 or something here on out than LaStella, and what are you giving up?

But sometimes it doesn't take much.

For the season, .020 points is about the same as 6-8 HR, 6-8 SB, 20-24 runs or 20-24 RBI

[swampdragon]

All depends on where you are in the standings.

Easier math is taking .020 and dividing by 14 then dividing by three. The 14 represents 1/14th of an active roster (which makes the assumption of equal at bats) and the three is for 1/3rd of the season remaining. That adds on .0005. Looking at my leagues, there's usually one spot where that gets an extra point, sometimes two. You just have to be in that spot.

oh sure - simplify it and get the same number - great stuff

so .2671 becomes .2676 - and you might have 2 teams in that span - that seem unlikely but ...

[cavebird]

But sometimes it doesn't take much.

For the season, .020 points is about the same as 6-8 HR, 6-8 SB, 20-24 runs or 20-24 RBI

Yes, but that's 20 batting average points. Your math (which was quite correct) showed the affect for the rest of the season being .0005 which is 1/40 of .020.

[Todd Zola]

Yes, but that's 20 batting average points. Your math (which was quite correct) showed the affect for the rest of the season being .0005 which is 1/40 of .020.

Sorry, I juxtaposed a couple of separate responses.

You did suggest the switch for the season doesn't change things much -- it does. At least as much as 6 HR etc.

Bottom line is everything depends on if you're fortuitously in a spot where a little difference goes a long away, even with counting stats.

[cavebird]

Are you saying that .0005 is the equivalent of 6 HR or 20 Runs or RBI (or something close)? If so, very interesting. I'll have to check my leagues to see how much that is true for them. (I know that this hardly proves you wrong scientifically, I am just curious.)

But, yes, the main thing is where you are in the standings and how much a little bit of whatever stat it is, can help.

[Todd Zola]

Are you saying that .0005 is the equivalent of 6 HR or 20 Runs or RBI (or something close)? If so, very interesting. I'll have to check my leagues to see how much that is true for them. (I know that this hardly proves you wrong scientifically, I am just curious.)

But, yes, the main thing is where you are in the standings and how much a little bit of whatever stat it is, can help.

Have to cut the counters down a third as well so

.0005 BA = 2-3 HR, 2-3 SB, 8-9 RBI, 8-9 runs (with 2 months left)

some places 3 HR = 2 points
other places you get diddly

[cavebird]

Okay, that sounds about right to me. It seemed a bit high with the multiplied numbers.