SP or RP for ROS

[overkill94]

Love me some acronyms.

Trying to decide who to jettison and wanted to see what the consensus is on SP vs. RP.

Aaron Harang - up-and-down year, nice ERA but sub-par WHIP with an average number of K's and wins; projected schedule of starts:

@ SD
vs. Wash
vs. Oak
@ Pit
@ NYM
vs. Mia
@ Mia
@ Tex
vs. Wash
vs. Pit
@ Phi

Not exactly a daunting schedule, especially now that Texas's lineup is decimated.

Pat Neshek - excellent ratios, nice K rate, 4 wins, probably next-in-line for saves (and I own Rosenthal)

Without Harang I would have 7 starters (after making a trade) with mostly good-to-great K rates. Lately I've fallen behind in K's, going from a commanding lead to 3rd place (4 out of first but 2nd place all of a sudden has 8 SP). I've been leading in ERA for a while but have fallen back down to 2nd (0.02 behind 1st, 0.14 ahead of 3rd). Been leading in WHIP pretty much all eyar, but that gap has closed a bit (0.05 ahead of 2nd, 0.06 ahead of 3rd). Wins have been frustrating all year - right now I'm in 5th (5 behind 2nd place - guy with 8 SP - 2 ahead of 6th).

With so many variables involved it's hard for me to figure out which way is best - stick with the SP to hopefully help in K's and wins or stick with the RP to keep the ratios down. Thoughts?

[virgonomic]

Neshek. You don't want to lose ground because you started Aaron Harang.

[overkill94]

Neshek. You don't want to lose ground because you started Aaron Harang.

At this point in the year would he able to hurt my ratios bad enough to offset the extra strikeouts and wins though?

[cardboardbox]

Harang's k/9 has fallen off a cliff. Since 6/1:

Harang 36 k's 5 wins, xFIP of 5.17 and 4.70 in june, july
Neshek 16 k's 3 wins, outstanding ratios

I'd secure the ratios and hope for the best in k's and wins. Are there any better k/9 RP available? Boxberger, Miller?

[overkill94]

NL-only so the only guys with better K-rates also have crappy ratios (JJ Hoover, Carlos Torres, etc). I could keep Vic Black instead of both but his K-rate in the majors isn't as impressive as it was in the minors.

[virgonomic]

At this point in the year would he able to hurt my ratios bad enough to offset the extra strikeouts and wins though?

It only takes a couple blowups to lose 0.05 in WHIP. And they are likely coming with him.

[overkill94]

So the trade I'm planning on making still won't take effect for another week and I've had more time to think things over. In the last few days I've moved back into 1st place in K's (8 ahead of 2nd), 1st in ERA (0.14 ahead of 2nd - he's had some rough outings lately), and widened my lead in WHIP (0.07 now). Neshek continues to be lights out and Harang still hasn't been super impressive but I feel like wins are still the key category and Harang has a decent chance of helping me there while not affecting the other categories. Any additional thought?

[Gregg]

If I am reading this correctly, you have both Harang and Neshek and it is working just the way it is. But you want to trade one of these for another player that may hurt you if you pick the wrong player to trade. The player that you are going after is not good enough to clearly move you ahead of where you are now? Why would you want to do that?

Don't we make trades to win or put ourselves in the position to win?

Why isn't standing pat an option?

[swampdragon]

what is the trade?

and yes wins are next to impossible to predict

but the Braves will eventually win games again and a mediocre pitcher on a winning team has a better chance of getting wins

[overkill94]

I was hesitant to post the trade since there are others in this league on here but what the hell:

I give Matt Wisler ($5/2+), Jake Lamb ($5/2+), Vic Black ($5/2), Jordany Valdespin ($10/2), Mark Trumbo ($30/2), and either Harang or Neshek ($10/2 each)

for

Mat Latos ($19/2), John Lackey ($10/0), Curtis Granderson ($23/2), Jon Jay ($6/2)

Although I'm back on top in strikeouts I still think it's a vulnerability since guys like Beckett and Eovaldi have regressed. Getting rid of Trumbo is to balance the salaries and OBP is another close category so Grandy/Jay should help there as well. Also I've realized that I can actually win steals so whatever those guys can chip in would be nice.

[cavebird]

but the Braves will eventually win games again

Having watched pretty much all the games recently, I can confidently state that no, they won't.

[Gregg]

Given this, I would give up Neshek. The two starters you are picking up will overcome (good or bad) any stats that Neshek brings to the table. Go for the wins and k's with Harang.

[cardboardbox]

In any given outing you could be haranged with a 1.2 IP 8 ER outing that would wash away any gain in wins and K's. I just dont trust him. In the past 6 years (chosen at random, not manipulating data) his ERA is only slightly lower than xERA so there's no real reason to expect him to continue outperforming xERA or xFIP for ROS. xERA ytd is 4.3 but monthly tells the story:

April 3.82
May 2.93
June 5.44
July 4.78
August 5.71

Swk has continued to drop 9 to 6 to 3, k/bb for june, july, aug is 1.1, 1.4, 0.8. I wouldnt count on Harang for anything at this point.

He does however have an easy schedule ROS but is it considerably easier than the first 4 months? MIA and PHI were his disaster starts.

[overkill94]

Well, one of the guys in the hunt for K's just lost Garza to the DL so that'll help for a bit. The other owner, however, seems to have stopped caring about ERA/WHIP and now has 9 SP although his new addition (Tyler Matzek) isn't a big strikeout guy.

The two teams directly ahead of me in wins have 6 starters apiece so I guess having 7 mostly solid SPs (Kershaw, Cueto, Zimmermann, Lackey, Latos, Beckett, Eovaldi) might help me get over the hump. Like I said, I'm not very good at this whole forecasting thing

[Mithrandir]

Well, one of the guys in the hunt for K's just lost Garza to the DL so that'll help for a bit. The other owner, however, seems to have stopped caring about ERA/WHIP and now has 9 SP although his new addition (Tyler Matzek) isn't a big strikeout guy.

The two teams directly ahead of me in wins have 6 starters apiece so I guess having 7 mostly solid SPs (Kershaw, Cueto, Zimmermann, Lackey, Latos, Beckett, Eovaldi) might help me get over the hump. Like I said, I'm not very good at this whole forecasting thing

Don't worry about that..nobody is!