Title Push Moves Question

[Sour Masher]

I just pulled the trigger on acquiring Felix Hernandez for a package highlighted by Addison Russell. I think the move shores up my pitching and puts me in a good position to win it all. My question, both broader, in terms of strategy, and specific to my situation is when is enough, enough? When do you stop trading future assets to ensure victory this year?

This is a 16 team h2h points league, so nothing is guaranteed, no matter how good my team is, but before the deal I was leading the league in points (barely), and after my latest deal, now I am confident I have the best team, and I didn't think any other moves needed to be made or could be made, because most of the major pieces have been moved from the teams clearly out of the playoffs (we pay out to the playoff teams, the top 6 teams). But another playoff team, seeing my recent moves, wants to give up his position in the money and throw in the towel, basically conceding the arms race, and dumping the assets he traded for to keep up. He is offering Cano, Hanley, and Braun (none are keepable) for my Alcantara 5, Jean Segura 5, (extension due), Alex Rios (expired), Lucas Giolito, Jorge Soler, and Kyle Zimmer.

The trade would clearly improve my team, and further distance myself from the pack, but, again, I already have the best team, and I have lost in the playoffs before to inferior teams because of fluke weeks or injuries. So, should my strategy be to go super all in to minimize the risk of a fluke playoff loss, or be confident that having the best team already is enough and not risk more of my future assets?

Specifically, would you do that deal? This league has a $400 cap, and we keep 15 each year, so inflation is huge, making cheap prospect talent much more valuable. Given my league dynamic, I think he is asking for too much, but he sees me getting double value, improving while weakening one of the other top contenders at the same time.

[gcstomp]

How far to go for it, is such an individual question. I have gone pure go for it, burn every keepable asset, for the win before. And won, but felt not great about it becuase of knowing you put yourself in a rebuild/win cycle rather than long term approach. I wont burn everything in sight for a win like I have done in years past so maybe kamikaze all or nothing playstyle is more for the young.

[kawaise]

When I'm in the hunt I never let off the gas. You can never account for injuries on your current roster, nor can you accurately predict the impact a prospect will have. How are those owners doing that refused to move Profar? What return has Shelby Miller provided? It took Teheran a couple years to get to the place that he was predicted to be ... those owners who owned him his first two years got NOTHING in return. These are recent examples; we can make a list of many more.

You acquired nice prospects .... cash in those "chips" and go out an win the league this year. Soler and Giolito are nice prospects but will their "shine" ever be greater than now? We don't know. I would do the deal; if you feel the need to keep one, try to counter his offer by keeping one of your "future assets."

[cavebird]

That's tough when it is an H2H league with playoffs, because playoffs are always a crapshoot. I take the pedal off the gas really early in those by trying to avoid them in the first place.

[kawaise]

How far to go for it, is such an individual question. I have gone pure go for it, burn every keepable asset, for the win before. And won, but felt not great about it becuase of knowing you put yourself in a rebuild/win cycle rather than long term approach. I wont burn everything in sight for a win like I have done in years past so maybe kamikaze all or nothing playstyle is more for the young.

If you're a strong enough player your "rebuild" is rarely the bottom. I too, have "burned assets," but have NEVER regretted doing so. I traded off assets to get my third championship in a row - my rebuilding was a second place finish followed by a third place finish. I'm in the position to win again this year - I just traded Archie Bradley and Oscar Taveras in my NL-only league to pick up Kershaw and Gomez. I hope to be smiling all the way to the bank.

[Sour Masher]

When I'm in the hunt I never let off the gas. You can never account for injuries on your current roster, nor can you accurately predict the impact a prospect will have. How are those owners doing that refused to move Profar? What return has Shelby Miller provided? It took Teheran a couple years to get to the place that he was predicted to be ... those owners who owned him his first two years got NOTHING in return. These are recent examples; we can make a list of many more.

You acquired nice prospects .... cash in those "chips" and go out an win the league this year. Soler and Giolito are nice prospects but will their "shine" ever be greater than now? We don't know. I would do the deal; if you feel the need to keep one, try to counter his offer by keeping one of your "future assets."

It is funny that you mention Profar and Miller because I moved Profar last year and Miller this year. No regrets. I do regret trading Mike Trout for Scott Baker and Jimmy Rollins a few years ago. You are right, there are a lot of dud prospects, but Mike Trout is now a $5 asset that will get max dealed to $30 for six years. On the open market, he'd go well over $100. The way our league is set up, basically any good team has cheap long term studs. But you are right....a lot of these guys don't become that. I guess if Hanley and Cano were playing a little better I'd have already pulled the trigger. The fact that both are a little banged up gives me visions of last year when Miggy went down right when it counted. I ended up trading Profar and Zach Wheeler for nothing, because Miggy put up zero points for me in the playoffs, and I lost in the first round by 3 points. Luckily, neither has proven to be a big loss.

[Sour Masher]

If you're a strong enough player your "rebuild" is rarely the bottom. I too, have "burned assets," but have NEVER regretted doing so. I traded off assets to get my third championship in a row - my rebuilding was a second place finish followed by a third place finish. I'm in the position to win again this year - I just traded Archie Bradley and Oscar Taveras in my NL-only league to pick up Kershaw and Gomez. I hope to be smiling all the way to the bank.

Maybe that is my problem. I rarely go super all in, and I also rarely win it all, given the team I usually put out there (2 in the last 10 years, after back to back championships before that when the league was younger and stupider). But, in the 20 year history of the league, I am the only team that has never missed the playoffs. I guess I have become obsessed with keeping that streak alive to the detriment of some of my title runs.

Another factor is that I have maintained success for so long, because I am obsessed with prospects, acquiring great ones before they turn great, trade them each year and just pick up new ones. But this year we changed the rules to make the league more competitive. I can no longer pick up anyone I want. We restrict pick ups and require talent to be distributed through our draft. The draft is based on record. I foresee my farm system quickly dwindling from top to bottom, and I no longer will be able to replenish it by snagging predraft and international talent.

[cardboardbox]

What happens if that same group of players goes to the 2nd or 3rd best team? At that point there's no one left to dump studs to you?

[Sour Masher]

What happens if that same group of players goes to the 2nd or 3rd best team? At that point there's no one left to dump studs to you?

He is using that as a threat, but this league is super adverse to trading elite prospects. It is how I've been able to stay ahead, because I am willing to make those moves, to an extent. I know from me testing the waters that all of the top 20 prospects right now are almost completely untouchable. So, I think if he takes his business elsewhere, he would get less than he is asking from me.

[cardboardbox]

He is using that as a threat, but this league is super adverse to trading elite prospects. It is how I've been able to stay ahead, because I am willing to make those moves, to an extent. I know from me testing the waters that all of the top 20 prospects right now are almost completely untouchable. So, I think if he takes his business elsewhere, he would get less than he is asking from me.

but he could get something? Counter by taking out 2 of your prospects and see what happens.

[kawaise]

but he could get something? Counter by taking out 2 of your prospects and see what happens.

Pretty much same point that I made.

He made an offer ... now counter by leaving one or two of your prospects off of his list.

We sometimes have emotional attachments to the prospects we first "discover" not to mention competitive advantages. I understand the value of these low-price studs. You brought up Trout as one who is uber-valuable; I, too, had him for $5 and long-termed him. He's one in a very small class that I've ever called untouchable (I've been playing since 1986).

The point was also made that he may deal them to other teams. I'd rather have as many "bullets chambered" in a H2H league.

[Sour Masher]

Pretty much same point that I made.

He made an offer ... now counter by leaving one or two of your prospects off of his list.

We sometimes have emotional attachments to the prospects we first "discover" not to mention competitive advantages. I understand the value of these low-price studs. You brought up Trout as one who is uber-valuable; I, too, had him for $5 and long-termed him. He's one in a very small class that I've ever called untouchable (I've been playing since 1986).

The point was also made that he may deal them to other teams. I'd rather have as many "bullets chambered" in a H2H league.

Yeah, i countered by giving Colin Moran or Maikel Franco instead of Soler, but he wouldn't bite--he says he needs Soler, Giolito, Zimmer, and Alcantara for the deal to happen. He has his heart set on those three prospects. He won't take Alexei Ramirez instead of Alcantara either. He isn't the sort to budge on the pieces he cares about. I could probably get him to take Ramirez over Segura, but that doesn't really help me. And he will take Holliday over Rios, but I like Holliday better.

[cardboardbox]

I would pass but I hold onto my prospects for too long and over value them.

Dont be surprised if he accepts less from someone else before your trade deadline.

[Sour Masher]

I pulled the trigger. Same deal, except I gave him Gallardo instead of Rios, because I figured it was better to have a good back up OFer in case of injury than a SP I'll never start after my recent moves. Flags Fly Forever, as they say.

I decimated my minors and keeper list in the last two weeks, but I did manage to keep my crown jewel--Bryant. Everyone kept wanting him, but I held fast and got folks to take other pieces. I will probably regret trading so many MIFers though--traded Profar, Odor, Alcantara, and Russell. Probably should have worked it to try to keep one of them at least.