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Someone asked a question in my "Roto Top 150" thread about why I ranked Swihart so low. This stimulated me to do a little research project that I've been planning for a while to determine just how valid my devaluation of catching prospects in roto is.
The reason I started devaluing catchers in roto is because they've disappointed me so often in roto play. I'm very reluctant to pay a lot of money for catchers because they underperform so often. In addition, they seem to get hurt more often than other hitters. I'm often content to make do w a couple of $1 catchers and spend my money on other offensive players. Yes, catcher is the one position where position scarcity is a valid concern, but if I can get a "post-hype" young catcher w some possible upside left, like Derek Norris or Devin Mesoraco, for a couple bucks or so, I'm satisfied.
Here are all the catchers who've been ranked in the top 75 on BA's list between 2005-2011. I'm using 2011 as the cutoff because this provides players time to accumulate enough of a track record in MLB to evaluate how valuable they are. I'm using 2005 as the starting date because some of the players on BA's lists before that year were real duds (e.g. JR House and Steve Lomasney) and apparently BA and other prospect mavens have gotten better at identifying catching prospects that end up having somewhat useful MLB careers. I'm using top 75 instead of top 100 because this eliminates some of the iffier prospects (also because I seldom draft anyone below #75 on my own list). Most of these were in the Top 50 at some point. In addition to their BA ranking and year, also listed is the average annual fWAR for these catchers starting w the season they first lost their rookie eligibility, and also the average annual fWAR for their 1st 3 MLB seasons. This last stat is the most important one for roto because 3 years is the typical amount of time you'd be able to keep a rookie player in roto w/o extending him. They are listed in descending order of this stat:
- B Posey (#14-2009, #7-2010) (4 MLB seasons (2010-13), 1833 PA, 17.7 fWAR = 4.43 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2010-12) = 4.40 fWAR/yr)
- R Martin (#42-2006) (8 MLB seasons (2006-13), 4180 PA, 25.2 fWAR = 3.15 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2006-08) = 4.30 fWAR/yr)
- J Mauer (#1-2005) (9 MLB seasons (2005-13), 4938 PA, 42.8 fWAR = 4.76 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2005-07) = 4.23 fWAR/yr)
- C Santana (#26-2009, #10-2010) (4 MLB seasons (2010-13), 2101 PA, 11.9 fWAR, 2.98 = fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2010-12) = 2.80 fWAR/yr)
- M Wieters (#12-2008, #1-2009) (5 MLB seasons (2009-13), 2610 PA, 14.3 fWAR = 2.86 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2009-11) = 2.70 fWAR/yr)
- G Soto (#47-2008) (6 MLB seasons (2008-13), 2358 PA, 11.3 fWAR = 1.88 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2008-10) = 2.63 fWAR/yr)
- N Walker (#43-2006) (4 MLB seasons (2010-13), 2212 PA, 9.7 fWAR = 2.43 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2010-12) = 2.33 fWAR/yr)
- B McCann (#44-2005) (9 MLB seasons (2005-13), 4354 PA, 29.2 fWAR = 3.24 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2005-07) = 2.20 fWAR/yr)
- W Rosario (#49-2011) (2 MLB seasons (2012-13), 892 PA, 3.6 fWAR = 1.8 fWAR/yr)
- W Ramos (#71-2009, #58-2010) (3 MLB seasons (2011-13), 834 PA, 5.3 fWAR = 1.77 fWAR/yr)
- K Johjima (#66-2006) (4 MLB seasons (2006-09), 1722 PA, 6.7 fWAR = 1.68 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2006-08) = 1.73 fWAR/yr)
- D Norris (#38-2010, #72-2011) (2 MLB seasons (2012-13), 540 PA, 2.4 fWAR = 1.20 fWAR/yr)
- M Montero (#63-2007) (7 MLB seasons (2007-13), 2853 PA, 13.3 fWAR = 1.90 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2007-09) = 0.83 fWAR/yr)
- T Flowers (#60-2010) (2 MLB seasons (2012-13), 428 PA, 1.1 fWAR = 0.55 fWAR/yr)
- J Arencibia (#43-2009) (3 MLB seasons (2011-13), 1355 PA, 1.1 fWAR = 0.37 fWAR/yr)
- J Castro (#53-2009, #41-2010) (4 MLB seasons (2010-13), 1003 PA, 4.9 fWAR = 1.23 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2010-12) = 0.23 fWAR/yr)
- D Mesoraco (#64-2011, also #16-2012) (2 MLB seasons (2012-13), 536 PA, 0.4 fWAR = 0.20 fWAR/yr)
- T Teagarden (#73-2009) (5 MLB seasons (2009-13), 465 PA, -0.2 fWAR = -0.04 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2009-11) = 0.13 fWAR/yr)
- J Mathis (#67-2005, #60-2006) (7 MLB seasons (2007-13), 1777 PA, -1.2 fWAR = -0.17 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2007-09) = 0.10 fWAR/yr)
- J Salty (#36-2007) (7 MLB seasons (2007-13), 2203 PA, 6.9 fWAR = 0.99 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2007-09) = -0.07 fWAR/yr)
- T D'Arnaud (#36-2011; also #17-2012, #23-2013, #38-2014) (didn't lose eligibility until this yr - 1 MLB season (2013), 112 PA, -0.10 fWAR)
- T Sanchez (#46-2011) (didn't lose eligibility until this yr - 1 MLB season (2013), 66 PA, -0.10 fWAR)
- JR Towles (#53-2008) (4 MLB seasons (2008-11), 440 PA, -0.6 fWAR = -0.15 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2008-10) = -0.17 fWAR/yr)
- J Clement (#33-2006, #62-2007, #42-2008) (5 seasons since since losing eligibility (2008-12)), 402 PA, -1.2 fWAR = -0.24 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons since losing eligiblity (2008-10) = -0.30 fWAR/yr)
- J Montero (#38-2010, #4-2010, #3-2011, also #6-2012) (2 MLB seasons (2012-13), 663 PA, -0.8 fWAR = -0.40 fWAR/yr)
- L Marson (#66-2009) (882 PA, 2.7 fWAR = 1.68 fWAR/yr) (4 MLB seasons (2010-13), 806 PA, 1.9 fWAR = 0.48 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2010-12) = 0.48 fWAR/yr)
2.0 WAR is considered about solid-average and 5.0 WAR is considered all-star level. And, of course, 0 WAR is replacement level.
Some players that were catchers as prospects move to other positions in MLB, like Walker. Others, like Wil Myers, move to other positions while still in the minors. That makes them more attractive as roto prospects to me.
2 important considerations about catchers: they often take longer to develop than other hitters and they seem to miss more time due to injury than other hitters. J Salty illustrates the 1st point. He's become a decent, solid-average offensive catcher, as his 2011-2013 seasons indicate where he averaged 2.37 fWAR. But in his 1st 3 MLB season he averaged negative fWAR (note that he's been hurt again this year). J Castro illustrates the 2nd point. He had a breakout year in 2013, but in his first 3 MLB seasons, he missed about a year and a half due to injury, resulting in an avg fWAR of only 0.23.
Only 8 of these 26 catchers (31%) put up more than 2.0 fWAR per year during their 1st 3 MLB seasons and 1 of these did so as a non-catcher (Walker). 4 of these were top 10 prospects and the other 4 were in the top 50. Some very highly ranked catchers have been duds so far, like J Montero, some have not done much in MLB so far, like D'Arnaud, and some appear to be coming into their own somewhat late, like Mesoraco (2.4 fWAR in 2014) and Norris (2.0 fWAR in both 2013 and 2014).
So, it appears that it is worthwhile drafting elite (Top 25-30) catching prospects, as most of those who were ranked this high at some point have put up at least a solid-average WAR for at least the first 3 seasons, and several of these are AS-caliber guys. Several of the others that were ranked in the top 50 at some point also have displayed solid-average performance during their 1st 3 years, but others have not done so so I would have less confidence about those ranked similarly. Practically none of the catchers not ranked in the top 50 have become solid-average MLB performers. So, based on this info, Mesoraco and Norris look like possible worthwhile roto catchers despite not getting going until their 2nd or 3rd MLB year, and there still may be hope for D'Arnaud, if he can ever stay healthy.
Note that several younger catchers that have started in MLB for several years never were listed in BA's Top 75:
- A Avila
- W Castillo
- J Lucroy
- S Perez (never even ranked in the team 10)
To an extent, this exercise confirmed what I already believed, but it has provided more detail. Actually, it has made me a little more optimistic about the better catching prospects.
The reason I started devaluing catchers in roto is because they've disappointed me so often in roto play. I'm very reluctant to pay a lot of money for catchers because they underperform so often. In addition, they seem to get hurt more often than other hitters. I'm often content to make do w a couple of $1 catchers and spend my money on other offensive players. Yes, catcher is the one position where position scarcity is a valid concern, but if I can get a "post-hype" young catcher w some possible upside left, like Derek Norris or Devin Mesoraco, for a couple bucks or so, I'm satisfied.
Here are all the catchers who've been ranked in the top 75 on BA's list between 2005-2011. I'm using 2011 as the cutoff because this provides players time to accumulate enough of a track record in MLB to evaluate how valuable they are. I'm using 2005 as the starting date because some of the players on BA's lists before that year were real duds (e.g. JR House and Steve Lomasney) and apparently BA and other prospect mavens have gotten better at identifying catching prospects that end up having somewhat useful MLB careers. I'm using top 75 instead of top 100 because this eliminates some of the iffier prospects (also because I seldom draft anyone below #75 on my own list). Most of these were in the Top 50 at some point. In addition to their BA ranking and year, also listed is the average annual fWAR for these catchers starting w the season they first lost their rookie eligibility, and also the average annual fWAR for their 1st 3 MLB seasons. This last stat is the most important one for roto because 3 years is the typical amount of time you'd be able to keep a rookie player in roto w/o extending him. They are listed in descending order of this stat:
- B Posey (#14-2009, #7-2010) (4 MLB seasons (2010-13), 1833 PA, 17.7 fWAR = 4.43 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2010-12) = 4.40 fWAR/yr)
- R Martin (#42-2006) (8 MLB seasons (2006-13), 4180 PA, 25.2 fWAR = 3.15 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2006-08) = 4.30 fWAR/yr)
- J Mauer (#1-2005) (9 MLB seasons (2005-13), 4938 PA, 42.8 fWAR = 4.76 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2005-07) = 4.23 fWAR/yr)
- C Santana (#26-2009, #10-2010) (4 MLB seasons (2010-13), 2101 PA, 11.9 fWAR, 2.98 = fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2010-12) = 2.80 fWAR/yr)
- M Wieters (#12-2008, #1-2009) (5 MLB seasons (2009-13), 2610 PA, 14.3 fWAR = 2.86 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2009-11) = 2.70 fWAR/yr)
- G Soto (#47-2008) (6 MLB seasons (2008-13), 2358 PA, 11.3 fWAR = 1.88 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2008-10) = 2.63 fWAR/yr)
- N Walker (#43-2006) (4 MLB seasons (2010-13), 2212 PA, 9.7 fWAR = 2.43 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2010-12) = 2.33 fWAR/yr)
- B McCann (#44-2005) (9 MLB seasons (2005-13), 4354 PA, 29.2 fWAR = 3.24 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2005-07) = 2.20 fWAR/yr)
- W Rosario (#49-2011) (2 MLB seasons (2012-13), 892 PA, 3.6 fWAR = 1.8 fWAR/yr)
- W Ramos (#71-2009, #58-2010) (3 MLB seasons (2011-13), 834 PA, 5.3 fWAR = 1.77 fWAR/yr)
- K Johjima (#66-2006) (4 MLB seasons (2006-09), 1722 PA, 6.7 fWAR = 1.68 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2006-08) = 1.73 fWAR/yr)
- D Norris (#38-2010, #72-2011) (2 MLB seasons (2012-13), 540 PA, 2.4 fWAR = 1.20 fWAR/yr)
- M Montero (#63-2007) (7 MLB seasons (2007-13), 2853 PA, 13.3 fWAR = 1.90 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2007-09) = 0.83 fWAR/yr)
- T Flowers (#60-2010) (2 MLB seasons (2012-13), 428 PA, 1.1 fWAR = 0.55 fWAR/yr)
- J Arencibia (#43-2009) (3 MLB seasons (2011-13), 1355 PA, 1.1 fWAR = 0.37 fWAR/yr)
- J Castro (#53-2009, #41-2010) (4 MLB seasons (2010-13), 1003 PA, 4.9 fWAR = 1.23 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2010-12) = 0.23 fWAR/yr)
- D Mesoraco (#64-2011, also #16-2012) (2 MLB seasons (2012-13), 536 PA, 0.4 fWAR = 0.20 fWAR/yr)
- T Teagarden (#73-2009) (5 MLB seasons (2009-13), 465 PA, -0.2 fWAR = -0.04 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2009-11) = 0.13 fWAR/yr)
- J Mathis (#67-2005, #60-2006) (7 MLB seasons (2007-13), 1777 PA, -1.2 fWAR = -0.17 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2007-09) = 0.10 fWAR/yr)
- J Salty (#36-2007) (7 MLB seasons (2007-13), 2203 PA, 6.9 fWAR = 0.99 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2007-09) = -0.07 fWAR/yr)
- T D'Arnaud (#36-2011; also #17-2012, #23-2013, #38-2014) (didn't lose eligibility until this yr - 1 MLB season (2013), 112 PA, -0.10 fWAR)
- T Sanchez (#46-2011) (didn't lose eligibility until this yr - 1 MLB season (2013), 66 PA, -0.10 fWAR)
- JR Towles (#53-2008) (4 MLB seasons (2008-11), 440 PA, -0.6 fWAR = -0.15 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2008-10) = -0.17 fWAR/yr)
- J Clement (#33-2006, #62-2007, #42-2008) (5 seasons since since losing eligibility (2008-12)), 402 PA, -1.2 fWAR = -0.24 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons since losing eligiblity (2008-10) = -0.30 fWAR/yr)
- J Montero (#38-2010, #4-2010, #3-2011, also #6-2012) (2 MLB seasons (2012-13), 663 PA, -0.8 fWAR = -0.40 fWAR/yr)
- L Marson (#66-2009) (882 PA, 2.7 fWAR = 1.68 fWAR/yr) (4 MLB seasons (2010-13), 806 PA, 1.9 fWAR = 0.48 fWAR/yr; 1st 3 MLB seasons (2010-12) = 0.48 fWAR/yr)
2.0 WAR is considered about solid-average and 5.0 WAR is considered all-star level. And, of course, 0 WAR is replacement level.
Some players that were catchers as prospects move to other positions in MLB, like Walker. Others, like Wil Myers, move to other positions while still in the minors. That makes them more attractive as roto prospects to me.
2 important considerations about catchers: they often take longer to develop than other hitters and they seem to miss more time due to injury than other hitters. J Salty illustrates the 1st point. He's become a decent, solid-average offensive catcher, as his 2011-2013 seasons indicate where he averaged 2.37 fWAR. But in his 1st 3 MLB season he averaged negative fWAR (note that he's been hurt again this year). J Castro illustrates the 2nd point. He had a breakout year in 2013, but in his first 3 MLB seasons, he missed about a year and a half due to injury, resulting in an avg fWAR of only 0.23.
Only 8 of these 26 catchers (31%) put up more than 2.0 fWAR per year during their 1st 3 MLB seasons and 1 of these did so as a non-catcher (Walker). 4 of these were top 10 prospects and the other 4 were in the top 50. Some very highly ranked catchers have been duds so far, like J Montero, some have not done much in MLB so far, like D'Arnaud, and some appear to be coming into their own somewhat late, like Mesoraco (2.4 fWAR in 2014) and Norris (2.0 fWAR in both 2013 and 2014).
So, it appears that it is worthwhile drafting elite (Top 25-30) catching prospects, as most of those who were ranked this high at some point have put up at least a solid-average WAR for at least the first 3 seasons, and several of these are AS-caliber guys. Several of the others that were ranked in the top 50 at some point also have displayed solid-average performance during their 1st 3 years, but others have not done so so I would have less confidence about those ranked similarly. Practically none of the catchers not ranked in the top 50 have become solid-average MLB performers. So, based on this info, Mesoraco and Norris look like possible worthwhile roto catchers despite not getting going until their 2nd or 3rd MLB year, and there still may be hope for D'Arnaud, if he can ever stay healthy.
Note that several younger catchers that have started in MLB for several years never were listed in BA's Top 75:
- A Avila
- W Castillo
- J Lucroy
- S Perez (never even ranked in the team 10)
To an extent, this exercise confirmed what I already believed, but it has provided more detail. Actually, it has made me a little more optimistic about the better catching prospects.
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