Adrian Beltre and 3000 hits

[onejayhawk]

Adrian Beltre passed 2500 hits last night. This brought up the subject of 3000, which I thought was getting pretty likely. I checked using the favorite toy http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/billjames

I was surprised to see that Beltre is now a 3-1 favorite to get 3000 hits. His 2013 season, with a league leading 199 hits more than doubled his chances. His projected total is over 3100. For comparison, Wade Boggs had 3010. George Brett's 3154 is distinctly possible.

J

[Don Quixote]

He's had his share of leg woes the last few years, but darned if he doesn't just keep on going. He's making me very sorry I traded him (I was dumping some of my higher-priced guys) a while back.

[onejayhawk]

What gets me is how much of his career was in dreadful hitting parks. Since he escaped Seattle after the 2009 seaon, he has over 800, almost 1/3 of career total. Back then he was a long shot for the HoF. Now he looks like a possible first ballot.

J

[Sour Masher]

Yeah, I agree about the park splits. Him getting into hitter's parks later in his career has certainly helped his public perception. I agree he is HOF bound. It is a shame, though, that if he had played his whole career in Seattle, he may not be. I guess we still have a ways to go toward fully taking into account park effects when consider HOF careers. Although, the true all time greats seem to hit anywhere. Other great hitters have had great success in Seattle, for instance.

[onejayhawk]

Tony Gwynn, RIP, played his whole career in a black hole.

J

[Pogues]

Yeah, I agree about the park splits. Him getting into hitter's parks later in his career has certainly helped his public perception. I agree he is HOF bound. It is a shame, though, that if he had played his whole career in Seattle, he may not be. I guess we still have a ways to go toward fully taking into account park effects when consider HOF careers. Although, the true all time greats seem to hit anywhere. Other great hitters have had great success in Seattle, for instance.

Ichiro had a little success in Seattle hitting.

[Erik]

Whatever park-related hitting inconsistencies he may have had, his glove negates that as far as HOF consideration. Barring a catastrophic injury in the next year, I think he's an easy yes.

[onejayhawk]

Even then. Voters have shown a willingness to fill in the blanks a little when a player is cut down at the top of his game. I agree the 8 GG is a big asset.

About Gwynn and Ichiro, both were bat control singles, doubles hitters. Beltre has a 50/50 shot at 500 HR to go with 3000 hits and a very good shot at passing Chipper Jones' 468 HR. Eddie Matthews' 512 HR is possible. Schmidt's 548 HR is likely out of reach. Of the top 20 hit totals, by players with over 60% of games at 3B, he has a better BA than anyone but Boggs, Brett and Pie Traynor. Beltre is getting up in the thin atmosphere.

J

[Moonlight J]

Beltre is already a Hall of Famer - doesn't need the 3000 hits to get in there but it would be a good milestone thing for him personally.

[DMT]

Beltre is already a Hall of Famer - doesn't need the 3000 hits to get in there but it would be a good milestone thing for him personally.

Agreed, he should be a lock.

[onejayhawk]

Beltre is already a Hall of Famer - doesn't need the 3000 hits to get in there but it would be a good milestone thing for him personally.

My question is where he ranks in that group.

J