RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects ("Post MLB Draft" Edition)

[rhd]

fyi, Law only moved Appel down from 11 to 16 in his recent update and has stated he doesnt think there's reason to panic.

Maybe, but on a recent BA podcast, they said that he doesnt seem to be the same pitcher that people saw before he was drafted. Also, he's been terrible the few times he's pitched this year and now he's hurt. Enough concerns for me to drop him down. I'd be reluctant to take a chance on him rt now in my rookie drafts, so I dropped him below the #70-#80 range. Altho I dont know why an org would put a top prospect that they drafted #1 overall at the worst pitchers' park in all of the minor leagues.

[cardboardbox]

Maybe, but on a recent BA podcast, they said that he doesnt seem to be the same pitcher that people saw before he was drafted. Also, he's been terrible the few times he's pitched this year and now he's hurt. Enough concerns for me to drop him down. I'd be reluctant to take a chance on him rt now in my rookie drafts, so I dropped him below the #70-#80 range. Altho I dont know why an org would put a top prospect that they drafted #1 overall at the worst pitchers' park in all of the minor leagues.

in what way is he not the same pitcher? His velocity is the same but the thumb injury i imagine is affecting his off speed stuff and control.

What you are saying about not being the same pitcher is pretty much the company line at BA. They've been beating that drum since well before the season started. I'd be curious to know where they would rank Appel now.

[Sour Masher]

in what way is he not the same pitcher? His velocity is the same but the thumb injury i imagine is affecting his off speed stuff and control.

What you are saying about not being the same pitcher is pretty much the company line at BA. They've been beating that drum since well before the season started. I'd be curious to know where they would rank Appel now.

For me, it isn't as much that he isn't the same but that he was never a true ace. I liked Gray a lot more in that draft. I thought Appel would fall behind Gray and Bryant.

But yeah, he's still a top talent and if you believed in him before, his current injury/struggles should not push him too far down, although it is delaying his development, and major league level success is such a fragile thing, any bumps in the road warrant at least some consideration/adjustment. I think BA would drop him 12 or so spots down around Kohl Stewart, although with graduations, he would probably still be top 50.

One thing that works in his favor that I did not think would before this year--the Stros seemed to have gotten a lot better at developing their pitchers, and that park isn't playing so bad for pitchers right now. Looks at the success Kuechel et al is having right now, and it is no longer hard to see Appel eventually shining in the majors for that team.

[cardboardbox]

For me, it isn't as much that he isn't the same but that he was never a true ace. I liked Gray a lot more in that draft. I thought Appel would fall behind Gray and Bryant.

But yeah, he's still a top talent and if you believed in him before, his current injury/struggles should not push him too far down, although it is delaying his development, and major league level success is such a fragile thing, any bumps in the road warrant at least some consideration/adjustment. I think BA would drop him 12 or so spots down around Kohl Stewart, although with graduations, he would probably still be top 50.

One thing that works in his favor that I did not think would before this year--the Stros seemed to have gotten a lot better at developing their pitchers, and that park isn't playing so bad for pitchers right now. Looks at the success Kuechel et al is having right now, and it is no longer hard to see Appel eventually shining in the majors for that team.

I dont know whats wrong with Appel other than the thumb but I put more trust in Law than BA. Appel was never projected to be an ace, but his floor was so high that it was assumed he'd be no worse than a #3 SP and possibly no better than a #3. Maybe a #2 if he reached his ceiling. Its possible that Law ranked Appel higher than BA based on the almost certainty that he'd be a good major leaguer while BA ranks on what they think a players ceiling will be.

Whatever the case, the Astros need to figure out what the problem is. Appel is doing historically bad right now.

[FBP]

Why did Herrera drop off and why is Brian Goodwin still on the list

[Blowinmudd]

I always look forward to your minor report/updates.I use them for my AL only drafts.
I drafted Alfredo Despaigne for $2 with my last pick.
THANKYOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL THE HARD WORK YOU PUT INTO THIS!

[rhd]

Why did Herrera drop off and why is Brian Goodwin still on the list

Thanx for the response, FBP.

Yeah, I probably should have left Herrera on at the bottom. I looked at the stats again before published this and his overall line was very mediocre. His season last year was a complete breakout from anything he'd done before, and I saw that he was at Asheville last year, a notorious hitters' park. So I thought he might be a bit of an Asheville fluke. But he's coming back from an injury and he's been hitting a lot better the last couple of weeks or so. He's not too far off the list and if he continues raking, he'll certainly be back on shortly.

[rhd]

I always look forward to your minor report/updates.I use them for my AL only drafts.
I drafted Alfredo Despaigne for $2 with my last pick.
THANKYOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL THE HARD WORK YOU PUT INTO THIS!

Thanx for the kind words, Blowinmudd!

[rhd]

in what way is he not the same pitcher? His velocity is the same but the thumb injury i imagine is affecting his off speed stuff and control.

What you are saying about not being the same pitcher is pretty much the company line at BA. They've been beating that drum since well before the season started. I'd be curious to know where they would rank Appel now.

This is from today's BA chat:

J.J. Cooper: He’s just not been very good. He’s not locating well, his secondary stuff is inconsistent and he isn’t sequencing pitches very well. Scouts who saw him in the Midwest League had many of the same concerns last year. If you’re the Astros you hope he just hasn’t been the guy he’s going to be long-term yet, because so far, he’s been a mediocre pro pitcher at best. Way too early to give up on him, but it’s hard to find many guys who go from where he is right now to big league ace.

I wish I could remember what exactly they said on the podcast and which one it was. But it was based on what scouts told them.

Where I have him now is similar to where I ended up putting Bauer when he was struggling. Doesnt mean I dont think he still can be a very good MLB pitcher. The list really is just a personal roto list, and rt now there are a lot of guys I'd feel more comfortable taking in a rookie draft than Appel.

[mjl]

What do you think of Conforto? Keith Law has him as the Mets' best prospect right now and thinks he could be MLB-ready by the end of next year if the Mets wanted to be really aggressive, which I doubt they will, but anyway.

[rhd]

What do you think of Conforto? Keith Law has him as the Mets' best prospect right now and thinks he could be MLB-ready by the end of next year if the Mets wanted to be really aggressive, which I doubt they will, but anyway.

Thanx for the response, mjl.

I probably dont know any more about Conforto rt now than you do. Many seem to think that Conforto was the best overall college hitter in the draft. The only reason he's at the bottom of the list (along w 4 other draftees) is because I dont know exactly where these guys should be. So he probably should be higher, and he will move up as I start to see some updated rankings and other info, and as he starts playing in the minors. There are other draftees that will be moving onto the list also.

Interesting that Law said he could be up as soon as this year. If so, I'll move him up even more. But I dont know why the Mets would rush him that fast, as they figure to be a ways away from contending.

[cardboardbox]

This is from today's BA chat:

J.J. Cooper: He’s just not been very good. He’s not locating well, his secondary stuff is inconsistent and he isn’t sequencing pitches very well.

the first issue is likely the thumb problem, the 2nd has always been an issue and thats why no one thought he'd be an ace, and the 3rd issue is teachable.

Scouts who saw him in the Midwest League had many of the same concerns last year. If you’re the Astros you hope he just hasn’t been the guy he’s going to be long-term yet, because so far, he’s been a mediocre pro pitcher at best. Way too early to give up on him, but it’s hard to find many guys who go from where he is right now to big league ace.

I wish I could remember what exactly they said on the podcast and which one it was. But it was based on what scouts told them.

Where I have him now is similar to where I ended up putting Bauer when he was struggling. Doesnt mean I dont think he still can be a very good MLB pitcher. The list really is just a personal roto list, and rt now there are a lot of guys I'd feel more comfortable taking in a rookie draft than Appel.

In Bauer's case he struggled for all of 2012 and 2013 before he fell off some rankings and sunk to the bottom of others. Appel has 1.5 years to go until he is at that point. Also, Bauer lost a lot of velocity from the time he was drafted to 2013 before getting it back this year. Appel is still 94-97 mph.

I dont think BA ever thought Appel would be an ace so that comment in the chat is a bit misleading.

[cardboardbox]

Thanx for the response, mjl.

I probably dont know any more about Conforto rt now than you do. Many seem to think that Conforto was the best overall college hitter in the draft. The only reason he's at the bottom of the list (along w 4 other draftees) is because I dont know exactly where these guys should be. So he probably should be higher, and he will move up as I start to see some updated rankings and other info, and as he starts playing in the minors. There are other draftees that will be moving onto the list also.

Interesting that Law said he could be up as soon as this year. If so, I'll move him up even more. But I dont know why the Mets would rush him that fast, as they figure to be a ways away from contending.

Law said he could be up next year. Unless I missed something in a chat.

[overkill94]

No love for Jake Lamb? Guy's killing it at AA.

Also, any thoughts on Andrew Susac (catcher at AAA for SF)?

[rhd]

No love for Jake Lamb? Guy's killing it at AA.

Also, any thoughts on Andrew Susac (catcher at AAA for SF)?

Thanx for the response, overkill94.

Yeah, I have been late looking at Lamb. He is mashing and did well last year too. He's on the list now, and pretty far up, too.

Susac is a nice prospect, but he's a catcher. Not someone I'm too interested in for roto rt now. Havent heard of him being ranked among the best catchers yet but when I do he'll get consideration for the list.