Thoughts on a blockbuster

[DMT]

I'd be giving up Taveras-1A, Marte-5B, and Paxton-8A

for

Adam Jones-12X, Pagan-2A, Greinke-23B, Mejia-8A

I'm obviously upgrading my staff significantly but is it any better than a coinflip on the offensive side? If the Cards just demote Taveras next week, than obviously not, but are they really gonna jerk this kid around when he's clearly ready?

[revo]

I don't know the league size, but on the surface, you're not getting nearly enough.

[The Dane]

I don't know the league size, but on the surface, you're not getting nearly enough.

I agree. Especially now that Tavares' stock is so high. I'd expect to get that whole package (or perhaps more) for only him.

[DMT]

I don't know the league size, but on the surface, you're not getting nearly enough.

12-team mixed. Yea, the more I thought about it, the less I liked it.

[DMT]

The problem is, he is one of just two teams that will be dumping anytime soon. The other team only has Braun.

[RSF]

Taveras is no sure thing to be a significant asset next year in a 12 team mixed league; I like him a lot, but the bar is relatively high for that shallow a league. I'd do the deal, assuming Greinke and saves are category-helpful to you.

[Mithrandir]

I think the deal is great for you. The amout people expect for a top prospect is ridiculous. No way is Tavares alone worth all that. Fantasy owners have gitten nuts when it comes to the worth of prospects.

[The Dane]

I think the deal is great for you. The amout people expect for a top prospect is ridiculous. No way is Tavares alone worth all that. Fantasy owners have gitten nuts when it comes to the worth of prospects.

You're missing the point. I agree that he isn't worth all that, but you prove my point in your last sentence. People are going nuts for Taveras right NOW which means his value is at its zenith. Capitalize. Don't think to get what he's worth, get what you can. His first-game homer only helps.

[RSF]

You're missing the point. I agree that he isn't worth all that, but you prove my point in your last sentence. People are going nuts for Taveras right NOW which means his value is at its zenith. Capitalize. Don't think to get what he's worth, get what you can. His first-game homer only helps.

Sophisticated owners don't care about one homer, though. If you're in a league with a bunch of guppies who are hugely impacted by that...ok, yes, then I agree you should aim high.

I think for most people who care enough to be in keeper leagues, they are going to evaluate Taveras the same today as a week ago, and while he's an exceptionally valuable keeper he also is young, mediocre eye, and may not be a true asset for 1-2 more years in a 12 team mixed league and his value will reflect some upside, but not what is being suggested here.

[The Dane]

When it comes to value, it is ALL about perception, and it wanes and fades throughout the season. For example, look at Wilmer Flores. When his promotion was imminent, he was worth a mint and you could get a lot for him. In one league, I got a then-disappointing Allen Craig, and people bitched that they would have given more. Now that Flores has not lit the world on fire, his value is significantly lower. In my mind, it hasn't changed at all. The player hasn't changed, but how is sold has definitely changed.

If you think Taveras' homer doesn't count at all in a trader's favor then you are ignoring perhaps the more important elements of trading. Give them what they want when they want it. Right now, everyone that doesn't own Taveras wishes they did, and the ones that could have really used that homer might very well be willing to give more than they should.

I think the RJEL is pretty sophisticated, but most of the owners (2/3?) overvalue young players just as you warn. It's pretty common. Look at the way people bid in the experts drafts. They do the same.

The adage goes "Sell high." His value is sky-high right now. Get everything you can.

[Hornsby]

When it comes to value, it is ALL about perception, and it wanes and fades throughout the season. For example, look at Wilmer Flores. When his promotion was imminent, he was worth a mint and you could get a lot for him. In one league, I got a then-disappointing Allen Craig, and people bitched that they would have given more. Now that Flores has not lit the world on fire, his value is significantly lower. In my mind, it hasn't changed at all. The player hasn't changed, but how is sold has definitely changed.

If you think Taveras' homer doesn't count at all in a trader's favor then you are ignoring perhaps the more important elements of trading. Give them what they want when they want it. Right now, everyone that doesn't own Taveras wishes they did, and the ones that could have really used that homer might very well be willing to give more than they should.

I think the RJEL is pretty sophisticated, but most of the owners (2/3?) overvalue young players just as you warn. It's pretty common. Look at the way people bid in the experts drafts. They do the same.

The adage goes "Sell high." His value is sky-high right now. Get everything you can.

I don't think what you're saying about the RJEL is true at all...look at the teams in the hunt, with the exception of 2 of the top 8, all have pretty much given up the best young chips that they have. They realize that it's a rare chance to win and they won't let youngsters get in the way. Conversely, the dumpers (myself included), are obviously going for the kids...both to rebuild with young studs, and to have the chips for next year if we're in contention.

I do agree that for the 1st week or so a young stud who's been talked about for months is absolutely at his peak value...you're never going to get more for Tavares than you'll get this week.

[RSF]

I think Allen Craig is, at this point, just a guy----in a 12/14 team mixed league he's rosterable, but there's guys on the wire who will are pretty likely to produce the same (or more) going forward, too. So, for me, Wilmer Flores (who has shown power, but can't field and doesn't really have the other tools to be a high-probability bat) is about right; I'd probably prefer Craig given the park for Flores, but I get betting on the upside, too. I'm not sure how close your scenario is to the above deal---just about every guy is better than Craig or Flores to me (except Paxton!) Flores is not a top 25 or so prospect at this point---he's very far from Taveras in expected production.

To the larger point, I absolutely agree that in any given league of a dozen people you can get some league-specific dynamics that are pretty far from actual value...and that a smart owner has to play their league, not the average league. I do not think what you say is true of writer's drafts, though, for the most part....most of those writers are using projection tools and valuing accordingly, and they actually tend come out like I suggest above.

Don't get me wrong---if you can get more in a deal you should do it. But for me, 'fair' for someone like Taveras should reflect the chance he's not even an asset, not just the upsde possibility he certainly has.

[The Dane]

I think Allen Craig is, at this point, just a guy----in a 12/14 team mixed league he's rosterable, but there's guys on the wire who will are pretty likely to produce the same (or more) going forward, too.

Yeah, the shallowest league I'm in is an 18-team mixed. In that league (or my NL onlys), Craig has a lot more value because replacement is so low. If he sucks like he has, you have to just sit back and hope he rebounds... like he has.

[RSF]

Yeah, the shallowest league I'm in is an 18-team mixed. In that league (or my NL onlys), Craig has a lot more value because replacement is so low. If he sucks like he has, you have to just sit back and hope he rebounds... like he has.

The original poster said his league was 12 team mixed, so 18 team issues are pretty far from what he's dealing with, seems to me...that's an additional 90 hitters off the board.

[cardboardbox]

I'd be giving up Taveras-1A, Marte-5B, and Paxton-8A

for

Adam Jones-12X, Pagan-2A, Greinke-23B, Mejia-8A

I'm obviously upgrading my staff significantly but is it any better than a coinflip on the offensive side? If the Cards just demote Taveras next week, than obviously not, but are they really gonna jerk this kid around when he's clearly ready?

why dont you separate Taveras and Marte into two deals, one for each dumper? The one that only has Braun doesnt have anyone else useful he can add?