Never Pay For Pitching

[cavebird]

That's all well and good, but how do you know if it will hold up in the long run? Sure Buerhle started off hot. He will finish with the same fantasy mediocre numbers he always does---he's Mark Buerhle. He's cheap for a reason. I have no idea who the other guys are. Some cheap pitching are young fliers, and they can pay off in spades both offensively and in pitching. They also can blow up. If you look hard and get lucky, you can build a good, cheap staff. If you pay for pitching, you are paying for safety. I think the question is how lucky are you feeling? Sure, if you don't have the best keeper list, it is the logical route to go---if you get lucky, it can pay off. If you have a great keeper list, however, and should be a strong contender, I wouldn't bank my hopes on Mark Buerhle. (Nothing against Buerhle; you could substitute Aaron Harang or any other mediocre pitcher who has started hot here, I just use him because, well, he's the only one you identified.)

[The Dane]

That's all well and good, but how do you know if it will hold up in the long run? Sure Buerhle started off hot...

I said before, I didn't think it would hold, but I do not think it will collapse totally, because it's been happening with the best pitcher in baseball on the DL and so when he returns, he'll cover a multitude of sins.

My staff: Kershaw, Teheran, Santana, Peralta, Roark, Beuhrle, CTorres, Henderson, Cishek, Ottavino, Delgado, Kinzler, Fujikawa

It has it's fair share of disappointments in Henderson and Delgado, and two closer fliers in Fujikawa and Kintzler. Ottavino and Torres were $1 FAABs. I expect regression from Beurhle and Roark. I think Teheran and Peralta are taking the next step and will be money. If any of the closer fliers pan out (a crapshoot, I know), I should be able to stay competitive in pitching, even though I spent a fraction of what most everyone else spent.

[DMT]

Last year, I didn't spend double digits on a single pitcher and ran away with the title. Strasburg (13) and Darvish (18) were keepers. This year, I also kept Homer (9) and Jansen (1). Pitching was pricier thus year and I paid double digits for two Ps: Kazmir (11) & Robertson (14). I've added Paxton, Chavez, and Erlin via FAAB. My team, nay hitting, has been pretty terrible thus far but I spent $94 on Miggy and Holliday so hopefully they get it together soon.

In short, I agree and almost never spend big on pitching, even though my league generally spends more than average on pitching. It's all about risk/reward and pitchers carry too much risk to invest top dollarson them. Kershaw is but the latest example.

[bryanbutler]

"You've committed one of the great blunders of all time! The first, never get involved in a land war in Asia. But only slightly less known, never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line!"

never say never. take what the auction will give you, IMHO, regarding what you pay for pitching.

your strategy, while it can pay off, relies almost entirely on luck - catching several cheap fliers in a good year. i prefer an approach based less on luck. (OK, call it "risk/reward" instead of luck if you want...)

[DMT]

Pretty much all teams everywhere in competitive leagues spend somewhere around $60-70 on pitching.

Really, so, is the 70/30 (i.e. $78 on pitching) recommendation just a misdirection? I don't track expert league trends but most of my leaguemates spend at least $80 on pitching.

[bryanbutler]

there has been a trend in recent years to spend less on pitching - breaking the old 68/32 mantra - up to the levels elD notes. personally i think it depends on the rules of your league, and dynamics of the owners at auction.

[DMT]

there has been a trend in recent years to spend less on pitching - breaking the old 68/32 mantra - up to the levels elD notes. personally i think it depends on the rules of your league, and dynamics of the owners at auction.

So, you're saying Dane isn't a revolutionary?

[The Dane]

So, you're saying Dane isn't a revolutionary?

Ha. Yeah, nothing I've posited did I conceive. I was just giving support for an argument that often gets bandied about in draft season. I did notice people in my drafts this year spending more on pitching than over the last few years, which was a strategy I did consider this year. At this point, I'm glad I didn't. I always try to rethink the way I go about things and I thought there might be a developing market inefficiency around pitching, but that still isn't true. Overpaying for pitching is a recipe for disaster, and I think most leagues will show almost no correlation between the teams that spent the most on pitching and the points in pitching earned.

[Gregg]

I am currently tied for 1st in pitching in my NL 5x5 ultra keeper. I spent $95 dollars of 260.

I am currently last in my AL 5x5 ultra. I spent $54.

The single biggest difference that I see is my 6 dollar closer is injured and I have 1 point in saves. My $25 worth of 2 closers has me 11 points in the NL.

[Moonlight J]

I have 45.5 of the 50 pitching points in my 10 team NL home league right now. 1st in ERA, 1st in K's, tied for 3rd in saves, 1st in wins, third in WHIP. This is my staff:

Cashner $18
Clippard $1
Hammel $12 (reserve round salary)
Haren $11
Jansen $26
Mejia $10 (reserve round salary)
Peralta $5
Volquez $10 (reserve round salary)
Zimmermann $25

bench:
Melancon $1
Colon $5
Will Smith $10 (reserve round salary)
Siegrist $5
also have Bradley & Butler awaiting call-ups

[BuckyBuckner]

I completely agree that you don't want to tie too much money (read: risk) into pitching or at least one pitcher but sometimes, and I'm talking keeper leagues, your keeper list will decide what you do with your money and where you spend it. In my AL only league I had some really good cheap pitchers: Pineda $4, Archer $5, Nova $1 (he was a really good cheap pitcher ), Robertson $6, Feliz $5 (ugh) and so I decided I'd go after Velander and cheap guys everywhere else. I got Verlander for $33 and mistakenly go Erasmo Ramirez for $11. I think Erasmo means Erase My ERA in the language of hell. The other huge mistake was Paulino for $4. I spent $72 on pitching but so far I've been screwed by some awful starts. So it's a great plan when it works out but boy sometimes it does not work out.

[cavebird]

I said before, I didn't think it would hold, but I do not think it will collapse totally, because it's been happening with the best pitcher in baseball on the DL and so when he returns, he'll cover a multitude of sins.

My staff: Kershaw, Teheran, Santana, Peralta, Roark, Beuhrle, CTorres, Henderson, Cishek, Ottavino, Delgado, Kinzler, Fujikawa

It has it's fair share of disappointments in Henderson and Delgado, and two closer fliers in Fujikawa and Kintzler. Ottavino and Torres were $1 FAABs. I expect regression from Beurhle and Roark. I think Teheran and Peralta are taking the next step and will be money. If any of the closer fliers pan out (a crapshoot, I know), I should be able to stay competitive in pitching, even though I spent a fraction of what most everyone else spent.

That should be a fine staff, probably not tops in the league, but good enough--as you note, Kershaw covers a multitude of sins. That being said, it isn't like you didn't spend money on pitching---Teheran can't have been cheap unless he was a keeper, and Santana must have cost you a little coin. Sure, if you had Kershaw and two decent pitchers kept going into the auction, then you didn't spend much on pitching at auction. That has nothing to do with the thread title about never pay for pitching, however. Crap, if I have kept two first basemen, I doubt I'll spend much on first basemen at auction.

[rhd]

there has been a trend in recent years to spend less on pitching - breaking the old 68/32 mantra - up to the levels elD notes. personally i think it depends on the rules of your league, and dynamics of the owners at auction.

This isnt true in my leagues at all. I've started tracking inflation during the draft, separately for hitters and pitchers. For hitters, inflation increases during the draft, which means people are spending less money than I think the players are worth. But pitching inflation increases during the draft, which means people are spending more. My valuations are based on a 68/32 split, so it's not like I'm starting w unusually low values for pitchers.

Every year there are many 1$-$3 and reserve round pitchers that way overperform their expectations. So you can build a great staff for very little money. The key is you dont know ahead of time which $1 pitchers are going to be the great performers. Kinda like trying to make a fortune off of picking penny stocks.

My own personal rule of thumb is not "never pay for pitching", it's "never pay for closers". Except that you should never say never .

[overkill94]

Whatever the moral of the story is here, my AL-only team should be the anti-moral.

Verlander - $31 (not a bad start)
Buchholz - $13 (uh oh)
Frieri - $13 (keeper and 2 goddamn saves)
Lackey - $10 (keeper and shoot me now)
E. Ramirez - $10 (yikes)
Crain - $8 (late in the draft, trying to stay patient)
R. Cook - $5 (could be a nice keeper if things break right)
AJ Griffin - $4 (keeper value)
Carrasco - $1 (should've gone after my other $1 target - Kyle Gibson - instead)
D. Webb - $1 (could be a killer keeper)

Combine all that with spectacular spot starts by Cosart and Ramos (their crappy ones) and you're left with a 5.65 ERA and 1.69 WHIP for a whopping 6 points in the 5 pitching categories.