Never Pay For Pitching

[The Dane]

Granted, it's a small sample size and early in the season, but so far my RJEL team is a fine example of this adage.

The first place team in pitching spent $84, not too much.
The second place team in pitching spent $15. (My team, with a $41 Kershaw on the DL)
The third place team in pitching spent $77.

I'm in second overall, but I also have had about $100 on the DL in Kershaw, Beltre and Maybin. I have had some real surprise overachievers (Buehrle!?) but then more dollars on the DL than most. Just when I start to think maybe I should shake up my strategy and pay for some higher-tier pitching, something like this happens and makes me HAVE to look at my other four leagues...

In the two leagues I am currently in first, I spent the least in pitching. The league in which I am lowest (3rd), I spent the most, for me ($86).

This obviously will change some, but it's an interesting data point.

[BuckyBuckner]

Granted, it's a small sample size and early in the season, but so far my RJEL team is a fine example of this adage.

The first place team in pitching spent $84, not too much.
The second place team in pitching spent $15. (My team, with a $41 Kershaw on the DL)
The third place team in pitching spent $77.

I'm in second overall, but I also have had about $100 on the DL in Kershaw, Beltre and Maybin. I have had some real surprise overachievers (Buehrle!?) but then more dollars on the DL than most. Just when I start to think maybe I should shake up my strategy and pay for some higher-tier pitching, something like this happens and makes me HAVE to look at my other four leagues...

In the two leagues I am currently in first, I spent the least in pitching. The league in which I am lowest (3rd), I spent the most, for me ($86).

This obviously will change some, but it's an interesting data point.

How did you spend $15 on pitching with $41 spent on Kershaw? Are you talking about keepers? Then the $15 you "spent" on pitching at the auction is a meaning less number. Furthermore, even if you were to include all prices of pitchers, keepers and player bought, it's still meaningless due to the good value in your keepers. You can only attempt to make a point like this in a redraft league.

[Grinch]

I think he means 'at this point' he's in second with only $15 spent on 'active' pitchers (as Kershaw is on the DL) Still way to early to make anything of it, one bad outing still knocks you down for a week

[BuckyBuckner]

I think he means 'at this point' he's in second with only $15 spent on 'active' pitchers (as Kershaw is on the DL) Still way to early to make anything of it, one bad outing still knocks you down for a week

OK, I suppose. But still with keepers it's totally skewed. I mean what if he has a $1 Cashner that kept? Or a $4 Jose Fernandez? It's a nice story and good for him, but I don't think it's sufficient evidence to say "Never Pay for Pitching."

[The Dane]

I think he means 'at this point' he's in second with only $15 spent on 'active' pitchers (as Kershaw is on the DL) Still way to early to make anything of it, one bad outing still knocks you down for a week

Exactly. The numbers were the amount of dollars in active pitchers. I kept Kershaw and drafted very cheap after him and spent $18 on 11 more pitchers.

I agree it is way to early to really bank on anything, but it's also struck me as interesting. I doubt it'll hold up this well, but it's better to be doing well now than not doing well. Every year Shandler lists the All-Cheap team (or something like that), and you look at the pitchers and it's a staff than any one of us could roster in any league for less than $20 and it's a winning staff. That just blows my mind. Pitching drives me crazy because the profit margin is so great, but so is the volatility.

[The Dane]

OK, I suppose. But still with keepers it's totally skewed. I mean what if he has a $1 Cashner that kept? Or a $4 Jose Fernandez? It's a nice story and good for him, but I don't think it's sufficient evidence to say "Never Pay for Pitching."

Keeping a $1 Cashner or a $4 Fernandez supports my position as well, don't spend a lot on pitching. Just because you can keep Fernandez for years at that salary shows that positive effects of cheap pitcher drafting can benefit you for seasons down the road.

[gcstomp]

I like your strategy of spending more on offense, you spent as far as I can see 20% of your auction budget on pitching, but still an 80/20 split is very much a heavier offense/pitching split than norm. You had some nice pitching keepers, and also hit on some endgame finds, like you mentioned, taking M Buerle for $2. I nominated him for $1 and had terrible endgame money management, lost all my targets, sigh. Endgame budget management is probably more important a factor than anything in an 18 tm mixed, because there are lots of plus targets available, and you did that part extremely well. I went overboard in the all hitting with my RJEL budget with about 90% spent on hitting, and did not hit on any of the end game cheapo pitchers turning into big pluses. Well, except for Francisco Rodriguez as a $1 closer.

[The Dane]

Endgame budget management is probably more important a factor than anything in an 18 tm mixed, because there are lots of plus targets available, and you did that part extremely well.

I used to have this problem and there was an easy fix in my mind. I stopped being married to the idea that I had to spend every dollar, and that leaving two or three dollars behind at the end was GOOD. Like you said, when the endgame comes, those extra few dollars make a huge difference. When you play with very knowledgeable and skilled owners, they see the same endgame bargains as you do -you are all essentially looking at identical lists, with minor exceptions- and so the owner who has $10 for five spots easily "beats" five good owners in dollar days. I very often leave a few bucks at the end for late-game leverage. Now... leaving $25 on the table is a horrible miscalculation and should be avoided at all costs, but feeling that simply spending every cent -in and of itself- is a victory of any kind, is equally bad thinking.

[Hornsby]

I used to have this problem and there was an easy fix in my mind. I stopped being married to the idea that I had to spend every dollar, and that leaving two or three dollars behind at the end was GOOD. Like you said, when the endgame comes, those extra few dollars make a huge difference. When you play with very knowledgeable and skilled owners, they see the same endgame bargains as you do -you are all essentially looking at identical lists, with minor exceptions- and so the owner who has $10 for five spots easily "beats" five good owners in dollar days. I very often leave a few bucks at the end for late-game leverage. Now... leaving $25 on the table is a horrible miscalculation and should be avoided at all costs, but feeling that simply spending every cent -in and of itself- is a victory of any kind, is equally bad thinking.

But the opposite of that is also true...NOT spending the extra buck to get a player that you like in order to save for the end game can screw you just as badly. It's a tightrope to walk, but I try not to make a hard and fast rule about anything.

I do agree on finding pitching...so far, my 1 buck winners are Quintana (keeper), Beckett, Vargas, Soriano (keeper), and Koehler. Everyone else is also single digits with the exception of my big spend Verlander (38), and closer for a month Broxton, bought with FAAB.

[popeye]

Regardless of what has happened to date this season, it does not lead to the conclusion offered by this thread. Present your case after the season has ended and/or with meaningful statistics.

[Hornsby]

Regardless of what has happened to date this season, it does not lead to the conclusion offered by this thread. Present your case after the season has ended and/or with meaningful statistics.

I think that what you see represented here is pretty consistent with past seasons as well. As you can see, two of my keepers from last year are 1 buck guys, along with a 7 dollar Bucholtz. Just the sheer volume of pitchers as opposed to hitters pretty well suggests that you can find decent to good pitching at auction with a little research and a little luck. And picking it up during the season with FAAB money is also fairly easy to do, IMO.

[The Dane]

Regardless of what has happened to date this season, it does not lead to the conclusion offered by this thread. Present your case after the season has ended and/or with meaningful statistics.

The end of the season gets us only minutely closer to the conclusion, which is mantra in fantasy baseball. I just bring this up as an example.

[TranaGreg]

seeing the news today on Chris Sale has me increasingly buying into this philosophy.

[Ryno84MVP]

Through 4/21, Aaron Harang, Alfredo Simon, Wily Peralta, Jenrry Mejia, Jason Hammel, Tom Koehler and Jordan Lyles is first place staff that probably would have cost you $15 or less, but let's revisit in September.

[The Dane]

Just because it's on the topic...

Yesterday, in the same league we are discussing, my team's pitching generated:

21.2ip, 21k, 1.24 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, one win.

For those pitchers, I spent $5 of draft dollars and $2 of FAAB.

Sure, it's just one day, but on the heals of yesterday's discussion, it's interesting. We shouldn't pay (or rather, OVERpay) for pitching because not only are pitching stats more volatile but good pitching can be had cheaply.