Deep Mixed SP Rank 'em

[joncarlos]

5x5, though with an innings cap so it's closer to K/9. Who ya got for the top 2 or 3? Most of these guys pitch in the next couple days so we'll know more soon, but I think this could generate some interesting results.

Kyle Gibson (5ip, 3k, 4bb)
Trevor Bauer (6ip, 9k, 2bb in first AAA start)
Edinson Volquez (7.2ip, 6k, 1bb)
Jason Hammel (6.2ip, 5k, 1bb)
Erasmo Ramirez (11ip, 7k, 3bb)
Jesse Chavez (6ip, 4k, 2bb)

Chavez has a new cutter (I think it was a cutter) but hasn't really pitched as a starter before. Still, he has a good team and a good park. Bauer is a total wild card. Eraser might be the most highly touted but he's also looked the worst. Hammel might be remembering that he used to be good. Volquez might be the next Ray Searage miracle. Gibson was a highly rated prospect and is just coming back from TJ.

[cavebird]

Erasmo
~~~~~~
Hammel
~~~~~~
Wow, I don't know on the rest. Lots of speculation, lots of upside, lots of downside.

[joncarlos]

I'd put Chavez at the top and Erasmo near the bottom, just above Volquez. Still don't know why people are high on Erasmo. He's never shown anything at any level, really. He's very hittable and he doesn't strike anyone out. Why is he a sleeper? I'm pretty intrigued by Bauer as a post-hype guy. His stuff is still as electric as ever (unlike Erasmo).

I've asked before and didn't get a response: why is anyone high on Erasmo Ramirez? I feel like he'll struggle to even be league average.

It's a fair point. He had 59 really good innings in 2012 (7.3k9, 1.8bb9, even though his GB% was only 40.4). He was not bad in 2013, 72 innings with 7.1k9 and 3.2bb9, but again only a 42.5% GB rate. He pitches in Safeco.

Of course this year his velocity is down from 92.3 to 89.8, which isn't a great sign.

[cavebird]

It's a fair point. He had 59 really good innings in 2012 (7.3k9, 1.8bb9, even though his GB% was only 40.4). He was not bad in 2013, 72 innings with 7.1k9 and 3.2bb9, but again only a 42.5% GB rate. He pitches in Safeco.

Of course this year his velocity is down from 92.3 to 89.8, which isn't a great sign.

He's young and had solid, but not spectacular minor league numbers. In that park, that can translate into solid numbers. Nothing spectacular, but solid. (And the velocity thing isn't that bad---you were looking at his Four-seam fastball numbers, which he doesn't throw basically at all (2.3% this year), his two-seam fastball velocity is also down by not as much from 92.1 to 90.3).

Not sure where the love for Chavez comes from. He's been a mediocre reliever for many years now. He's started a total of 28 games in his professional career, counting today's start, and thrown more than 90 innings in a season once in his professional career. He's 30. I don't know why there would be any expectation of anything more than his being rotation filler.

[joncarlos]

He's young and had solid, but not spectacular minor league numbers. In that park, that can translate into solid numbers. Nothing spectacular, but solid. (And the velocity thing isn't that bad---you were looking at his Four-seam fastball numbers, which he doesn't throw basically at all (2.3% this year), his two-seam fastball velocity is also down by not as much from 92.1 to 90.3).

Not sure where the love for Chavez comes from. He's been a mediocre reliever for many years now. He's started a total of 28 games in his professional career, counting today's start, and thrown more than 90 innings in a season once in his professional career. He's 30. I don't know why there would be any expectation of anything more than his being rotation filler.

If you knock off 1 K/9 from Chavez as a penalty for moving to the rotation, you get this:

Pitcher A: 72 innings with 7.1k9 and 3.2bb9, but only a 42.5% GB rate. In a great pitchers park on a pretty good team. Averaging 90.3 on his 2-seamer in 2014.

Pitcher B: 57 innings with 7.6k9 and 3.1bb9, but only a 43.5% GB rate. In a great pitchers park on a pretty good team. Averaging 90.7 on his 2-seamer in 2014.

[cardboardbox]

5x5, though with an innings cap so it's closer to K/9. Who ya got for the top 2 or 3? Most of these guys pitch in the next couple days so we'll know more soon, but I think this could generate some interesting results.

Kyle Gibson (5ip, 3k, 4bb)
Trevor Bauer (6ip, 9k, 2bb in first AAA start)
Edinson Volquez (7.2ip, 6k, 1bb)
Jason Hammel (6.2ip, 5k, 1bb)
Erasmo Ramirez (11ip, 7k, 3bb)
Jesse Chavez (6ip, 4k, 2bb)

Chavez has a new cutter (I think it was a cutter) but hasn't really pitched as a starter before. Still, he has a good team and a good park. Bauer is a total wild card. Eraser might be the most highly touted but he's also looked the worst. Hammel might be remembering that he used to be good. Volquez might be the next Ray Searage miracle. Gibson was a highly rated prospect and is just coming back from TJ.

can you wait until Bauer's start today or will his price skyrocket with a good outing? I'm kind of hesitant on all of them.

I kind of agree with eld, Erasmo looked intriguing back in 2012, now not as much. Outside of Bauer, I might gamble on Volquez. And then Hammel and Chavez. I'd stay away from Gibson.

It seems almost every SP I check on isnt throwing as hard as last year. Maybe they all need a few more starts before we read anything into it. But Hammel is .1 mph faster than last year, which is insignificant but if everyone gets a small mph bump in the coming weeks, Hammel would be throwing harder than last year.

[cavebird]

If you knock off 1 K/9 from Chavez as a penalty for moving to the rotation, you get this:

Pitcher A: 72 innings with 7.1k9 and 3.2bb9, but only a 42.5% GB rate. In a great pitchers park on a pretty good team. Averaging 90.3 on his 2-seamer in 2014.

Pitcher B: 57 innings with 7.6k9 and 3.1bb9, but only a 43.5% GB rate. In a great pitchers park on a pretty good team. Averaging 90.7 on his 2-seamer in 2014.

I don't know if we can trust velocity readings with this small a sample size, especially in comparison to a previous year---many pitchers have a little lower velocity in April than in later months. I also don't know if we can trust either of them to handle the work load of being in the rotation for a full season. They are probably both rather mediocre.

[joncarlos]

I don't know if we can trust velocity readings with this small a sample size, especially in comparison to a previous year---many pitchers have a little lower velocity in April than in later months. I also don't know if we can trust either of them to handle the work load of being in the rotation for a full season. They are probably both rather mediocre.

I agree with all of this. In all likelihood, 1 guy from this list will be really good, 1 or 2 will be usable, 1 or 2 will be horrendous and the rest will be mediocre to below average.

I forgot to add Robbie Erlin to the list too.

I think right now I have them:

Hammel
Bauer
Chavez
Volquez
Erlin
Eraser
Gibson

[virgonomic]

I've asked before and didn't get a response: why is anyone high on Erasmo Ramirez? I feel like he'll struggle to even be league average.

Scottie said this:
Erasmo Ramirez - Good stuff, but not given much of a chance this year. He has a 12mph difference between his average fastball and changeup, and has a nice homepark.

I have been high on him since last year. I probably read a CBS projection on him. I also saw him on a sleeper list this spring but I forget exactly what was said. Probably that he was hindered by arm troubles last year and is healthy now and should produce a good K-rate.

[cardboardbox]

Bauer 4 k's in 2 ip.

now 6 k's in 3 ip.

[pitbull]

I like Erasmo. If you combine 2102 and 13 his Ks are okay. Given that he is a young pitcher in a good pitcher park and with the injuries if you got him cheap in the draft or can pick him up as a free agent there is a good case that you could make for decent profit.

Erlin is another one I like. Young, has upside, a pitchers park, injury opportunity or Stults gets removed.

And run from Edinson. He like the chick who looks great way across the street but as soon as you get close to her. :shrug:

[overkill94]

Rotoworld has seemingly been in love with Erasmo since he got brought up and I never really understood why. Not sure how I ended up spending $10 on him in my AL-only when guys like Pineda went for $7