Tweet
I enjoy reading about the dynamics of some of the other auctions that are posted here, so figured I might as well write mine up as well. This is an online league that's been around since 1997. 10 teams, NL only, 5x5, 25 man roster plus 6 reserves that are drafted at the same time, so we get a total of $286 for 31 players ($280 for 25 plus $1 each budgeted for the reserves, though you can spend more on reserves if you want).
I came in with a pretty good keeper list, though losing Medlen and Beachy on cheap contracts just before the keeper deadline left me somewhat concerned about pitching.
Keepers (F=Final year, can't extend):
C Wilson Ramos, Was $3
C Wilin Rosario, Col $10F
1B Freddie Freeman, Atl $21F
1B Ryan Howard, Phi $7
2B Anthony Rendon, Was $5
3B Chase Headley, SD $14F
SS Everth Cabrera, SD $8F
SS Chris Owings, Ari $6
OF Mike Stanton Mia $20F (Last year of guaranteed contract)
OF Bryce Harper, Was $18 (now on a long term contract)
OF Billy Hamilton, Cin $10
P Gio Gonzalez, Was $18F
P Hyun-Jin Ryu, LA $14
P Dillon Gee, NY $5
P Steve Cishek, Fla $6F
P Mark Melancon, Pit $1
Analysis: I kept 16 for $166, leaving $120 for 15 spots. As mentioned in my previous keeper help thread, this league has some unpredictable owners. We ended up with a lot of high priced pitching being kept for reasons I don't fully understand. As a result, inflation was kind of strange. I calculated the hitter inflation to be around 18%, which is relatively normal. On the pitching side though, I was actually showing a negative inflation/deflation of about 7%, which I've never seen before. We also had one team who kept only $31 in keepers, meaning he had a ridiculous $255 to spend, with the next highest person having roughly $140. I was a little worried about him, as he could basically control the day for a while.
My goal going in was to try to grab one power hitter (possibly Mark Trumbo or someone similar), a mid-tier high average hitter or two (Martin Prado is one player I was considering), and then focusing on mostly starting pitching (there are probably 10-12 starters available that I think are worth $10+, and I hope to grab at least three of them), with a closer (Addison Reed?) thrown in if I can manage it.
The Auction:
As mentioned, this is an online league run through ESPN. Last year we had two owners unable to make the auction, which resulted in the site using the default autobid values for them and making the early going very difficult. Thankfully this year, everyone was able to make it. The auction begins and the first player nominated is - Martin Prado, one of the guys I was targeting.
Martin Prado - $11 ($109 for 14). I'm not sure exactly what happened here, either people were undervaluing him because he doesn't have a ton of power, or maybe they were still settling in and not paying a lot of attention. I was expecting Prado to cost me in the high teens at least, if not $20, so I'm very pleasantly surprised. The next player off the board is Paul Goldschmidt who goes for $40, so things get more involved quickly.
Kenley Jansen - $19 ($90 for 13). There were six "named" closers available this year, Jansen, Reed, Soriano, Street, Veras and Hawkins. I was expecting to target Reed, as I thought Jansen would be out of my price range, but when the bidding stopped here, I jumped. $19 is a bit more than I like to spend on a closer in 5x5, but he was by far the best available, and the savings on Prado makes up for the difference.
Mat Latos - $18 ($72 for 12). One of the pitchers in the $10+ group. $18 is reasonable, and I didn't want to repeat last year's experience when I let too many good SPs go and ended up with less pitching than I wanted. Hopefully he'll be ready to go soon.
Ben Revere - $10 ($62 for 11). I like Revere, but in no way wanted or needed him, as I should be well stocked with SBs already. At that price though, I just couldn't let him go. I had him listed at $18 or $19. I guess I'll have some extra speed to trade. My only regret about this pick is that it means I probably won't be getting the extra power hitter I wanted unless I go light on pitching.
Cole Hamels - $13 ($49 for 10). At this point, I'm starting to wonder what's going on. The owner that came in with so much money spent about $100 on three big purchases, but otherwise hasn't done anything and still has $150+ remaining, while everyone else is down in the $60 or less range. I had Hamels listed at around $16, so am happy to take another under priced pitcher, though that's now two injured SPs to start the year.
Doug Fister - $12 ($37 for 9). Another injured pitcher, which I'm not thrilled about, but also well under value. I decide that I need to draft at least one non-injured pitcher at this point because all the injuries are worrying me, plus most of the power hitters are gone, so I don't think I'll be getting one.
Shelby Miller - $19 ($18 for 8). I overpaid here considering the other SP prices, but he's the last top tier SP left on the board, so I make my last big purchase. If everyone comes back healthy, I now have what should be an extremely good pitching staff, though I'll try to grab another SP as insurance if I can just in case. It's evident at this point that the owner with all that money left has miscalculated badly and will be leaving a ton at the table, as he's still in the $120+ range, and there's not very much left.
Tim Hudson - $9 ($9 for 7). In hindsight, I probably should have let him go, as I have a lot of pitching, but I like the price, there wasn't a lot left on the board, and he makes for good early year insurance with the three injured SPs. This leaves me with a max bid of $3, so I'm a little disappointed in how my two utility hitting slots are likely going to turn out.
Chris Young - $2 ($7 for 6). I watch a bunch of players go for above what I can bid at this point. Then Young, one of the very few hitters left I was interested in, is nominated for $1. I go $2, expecting to be knocked out of the bidding as he goes up to $10 or so, and instead, bidding stops. His average won't be pretty, but for $2 I couldn't ask for much more. As a bonus, it means I have a Mets' hitter to root for :P
Seth Smith - $1 ($6 for 5). Not a sexy pick, but for $1, I'll take someone relatively productive.
Robbie Erlin - $2 ($4 for 4). Nominated at $1, I went to $2 since he was one of my sleepers coming in. Probably won't amount to much, but there wasn't anything better at this point aside from the Tommy John guys out for the year, who all ended up over $2 anyway. I'm officially down to $1 per player to fill out the rest of my bench.
Jose Valverde - $1 ($3 for 3). With Parnell's velocity down all spring, and Black sent to the minors, I figure Valverde is probably next in line for saves to start the year, so may as well gamble at this point (which seems to have worked out well given news today of Parnell being hurt).
Cameron Maybin - $1 ($2 for 2). He's out for a while, and probably nothing special even when he's playing, but there isn't much else left
Alexi Amarista - $1 ($1 for 1). Time was running out on my pick, so I threw out whoever I could find. He's probably someone to replace, as I doubt he'll hit enough to be useful.
Juan Lagares - $1 ($0 for 0). I went a little Met heavy at the end here, but figure they're the team I'm most informed about and the other owners are likely not (most live elsewhere). Lagares' playing time is questionable, but I think he has a chance to improve a lot with the bat if he gets relatively consistent appearances.
Roster:
C Wilson Ramos, Was $3
C Wilin Rosario, Col $10F
1B Freddie Freeman, Atl $21F
1B Ryan Howard, Phi $7
2B Anthony Rendon, Was $5
3B Chase Headley, SD $14F
SS Everth Cabrera, SD $8F
SS Chris Owings, Ari $6
OF Mike Stanton Mia $20F (Last year of guaranteed contract)
OF Bryce Harper, Was $18 (now on a long term contract)
OF Billy Hamilton, Cin $10
OF Martin Prado, Ari $11
OF Ben Revere, Phi $10
UT Chris Young, NY $2
UT Seth Smith, SD $1
P Gio Gonzalez, Was $18F
P Hyun-Jin Ryu, LA $14
P Dillon Gee, NY $5
P Steve Cishek, Fla $6F
P Mark Melancon, Pit $1
P Kenley Jansen, LA $19
P Mat Latos, Cin $18
P Cole Hamels, Phi $13
P Doug Fister, Was $12
P Shelby Miller, Stl $19
Be Tim Hudson, SF $9
Be Robbie Erlin, SD $2
Be Jose Valverde, NY $1
Be Cameron Maybin, SD $1
Be Alexi Amarista, SD $1
Be Juan Lagares, NY $1
Thoughts:
A few days later, I'm still trying to figure out what happened here. The owner with all the cash coming in (who usually does pretty well) left close to $80 on the table, which definitely played a big role. We've had some strange auctions in the past, but I can't remember one where so many mid to upper tier talents went under priced.
Aside from Miller, I don't think I went over my pre-inflation value for anyone, and a number of players I bought were well below that number. My goal was to buy pitching coming in, and I think I may have gone overboard there. If the three SPs starting out on the DL come back healthy by May, I should have pitching to trade, and with Revere, probably speed as well. I'd feel a little better on the hitting side with another power hitter (especially if Ramos ends up missing time with a hand injury), but I should do pretty well there even without. There are a couple of buys I would have done differently in hindsight (one fewer DL'd pitcher would probably have been a good idea), but I'm happy with this team overall.
I came in with a pretty good keeper list, though losing Medlen and Beachy on cheap contracts just before the keeper deadline left me somewhat concerned about pitching.
Keepers (F=Final year, can't extend):
C Wilson Ramos, Was $3
C Wilin Rosario, Col $10F
1B Freddie Freeman, Atl $21F
1B Ryan Howard, Phi $7
2B Anthony Rendon, Was $5
3B Chase Headley, SD $14F
SS Everth Cabrera, SD $8F
SS Chris Owings, Ari $6
OF Mike Stanton Mia $20F (Last year of guaranteed contract)
OF Bryce Harper, Was $18 (now on a long term contract)
OF Billy Hamilton, Cin $10
P Gio Gonzalez, Was $18F
P Hyun-Jin Ryu, LA $14
P Dillon Gee, NY $5
P Steve Cishek, Fla $6F
P Mark Melancon, Pit $1
Analysis: I kept 16 for $166, leaving $120 for 15 spots. As mentioned in my previous keeper help thread, this league has some unpredictable owners. We ended up with a lot of high priced pitching being kept for reasons I don't fully understand. As a result, inflation was kind of strange. I calculated the hitter inflation to be around 18%, which is relatively normal. On the pitching side though, I was actually showing a negative inflation/deflation of about 7%, which I've never seen before. We also had one team who kept only $31 in keepers, meaning he had a ridiculous $255 to spend, with the next highest person having roughly $140. I was a little worried about him, as he could basically control the day for a while.
My goal going in was to try to grab one power hitter (possibly Mark Trumbo or someone similar), a mid-tier high average hitter or two (Martin Prado is one player I was considering), and then focusing on mostly starting pitching (there are probably 10-12 starters available that I think are worth $10+, and I hope to grab at least three of them), with a closer (Addison Reed?) thrown in if I can manage it.
The Auction:
As mentioned, this is an online league run through ESPN. Last year we had two owners unable to make the auction, which resulted in the site using the default autobid values for them and making the early going very difficult. Thankfully this year, everyone was able to make it. The auction begins and the first player nominated is - Martin Prado, one of the guys I was targeting.
Martin Prado - $11 ($109 for 14). I'm not sure exactly what happened here, either people were undervaluing him because he doesn't have a ton of power, or maybe they were still settling in and not paying a lot of attention. I was expecting Prado to cost me in the high teens at least, if not $20, so I'm very pleasantly surprised. The next player off the board is Paul Goldschmidt who goes for $40, so things get more involved quickly.
Kenley Jansen - $19 ($90 for 13). There were six "named" closers available this year, Jansen, Reed, Soriano, Street, Veras and Hawkins. I was expecting to target Reed, as I thought Jansen would be out of my price range, but when the bidding stopped here, I jumped. $19 is a bit more than I like to spend on a closer in 5x5, but he was by far the best available, and the savings on Prado makes up for the difference.
Mat Latos - $18 ($72 for 12). One of the pitchers in the $10+ group. $18 is reasonable, and I didn't want to repeat last year's experience when I let too many good SPs go and ended up with less pitching than I wanted. Hopefully he'll be ready to go soon.
Ben Revere - $10 ($62 for 11). I like Revere, but in no way wanted or needed him, as I should be well stocked with SBs already. At that price though, I just couldn't let him go. I had him listed at $18 or $19. I guess I'll have some extra speed to trade. My only regret about this pick is that it means I probably won't be getting the extra power hitter I wanted unless I go light on pitching.
Cole Hamels - $13 ($49 for 10). At this point, I'm starting to wonder what's going on. The owner that came in with so much money spent about $100 on three big purchases, but otherwise hasn't done anything and still has $150+ remaining, while everyone else is down in the $60 or less range. I had Hamels listed at around $16, so am happy to take another under priced pitcher, though that's now two injured SPs to start the year.
Doug Fister - $12 ($37 for 9). Another injured pitcher, which I'm not thrilled about, but also well under value. I decide that I need to draft at least one non-injured pitcher at this point because all the injuries are worrying me, plus most of the power hitters are gone, so I don't think I'll be getting one.
Shelby Miller - $19 ($18 for 8). I overpaid here considering the other SP prices, but he's the last top tier SP left on the board, so I make my last big purchase. If everyone comes back healthy, I now have what should be an extremely good pitching staff, though I'll try to grab another SP as insurance if I can just in case. It's evident at this point that the owner with all that money left has miscalculated badly and will be leaving a ton at the table, as he's still in the $120+ range, and there's not very much left.
Tim Hudson - $9 ($9 for 7). In hindsight, I probably should have let him go, as I have a lot of pitching, but I like the price, there wasn't a lot left on the board, and he makes for good early year insurance with the three injured SPs. This leaves me with a max bid of $3, so I'm a little disappointed in how my two utility hitting slots are likely going to turn out.
Chris Young - $2 ($7 for 6). I watch a bunch of players go for above what I can bid at this point. Then Young, one of the very few hitters left I was interested in, is nominated for $1. I go $2, expecting to be knocked out of the bidding as he goes up to $10 or so, and instead, bidding stops. His average won't be pretty, but for $2 I couldn't ask for much more. As a bonus, it means I have a Mets' hitter to root for :P
Seth Smith - $1 ($6 for 5). Not a sexy pick, but for $1, I'll take someone relatively productive.
Robbie Erlin - $2 ($4 for 4). Nominated at $1, I went to $2 since he was one of my sleepers coming in. Probably won't amount to much, but there wasn't anything better at this point aside from the Tommy John guys out for the year, who all ended up over $2 anyway. I'm officially down to $1 per player to fill out the rest of my bench.
Jose Valverde - $1 ($3 for 3). With Parnell's velocity down all spring, and Black sent to the minors, I figure Valverde is probably next in line for saves to start the year, so may as well gamble at this point (which seems to have worked out well given news today of Parnell being hurt).
Cameron Maybin - $1 ($2 for 2). He's out for a while, and probably nothing special even when he's playing, but there isn't much else left
Alexi Amarista - $1 ($1 for 1). Time was running out on my pick, so I threw out whoever I could find. He's probably someone to replace, as I doubt he'll hit enough to be useful.
Juan Lagares - $1 ($0 for 0). I went a little Met heavy at the end here, but figure they're the team I'm most informed about and the other owners are likely not (most live elsewhere). Lagares' playing time is questionable, but I think he has a chance to improve a lot with the bat if he gets relatively consistent appearances.
Roster:
C Wilson Ramos, Was $3
C Wilin Rosario, Col $10F
1B Freddie Freeman, Atl $21F
1B Ryan Howard, Phi $7
2B Anthony Rendon, Was $5
3B Chase Headley, SD $14F
SS Everth Cabrera, SD $8F
SS Chris Owings, Ari $6
OF Mike Stanton Mia $20F (Last year of guaranteed contract)
OF Bryce Harper, Was $18 (now on a long term contract)
OF Billy Hamilton, Cin $10
OF Martin Prado, Ari $11
OF Ben Revere, Phi $10
UT Chris Young, NY $2
UT Seth Smith, SD $1
P Gio Gonzalez, Was $18F
P Hyun-Jin Ryu, LA $14
P Dillon Gee, NY $5
P Steve Cishek, Fla $6F
P Mark Melancon, Pit $1
P Kenley Jansen, LA $19
P Mat Latos, Cin $18
P Cole Hamels, Phi $13
P Doug Fister, Was $12
P Shelby Miller, Stl $19
Be Tim Hudson, SF $9
Be Robbie Erlin, SD $2
Be Jose Valverde, NY $1
Be Cameron Maybin, SD $1
Be Alexi Amarista, SD $1
Be Juan Lagares, NY $1
Thoughts:
A few days later, I'm still trying to figure out what happened here. The owner with all the cash coming in (who usually does pretty well) left close to $80 on the table, which definitely played a big role. We've had some strange auctions in the past, but I can't remember one where so many mid to upper tier talents went under priced.
Aside from Miller, I don't think I went over my pre-inflation value for anyone, and a number of players I bought were well below that number. My goal was to buy pitching coming in, and I think I may have gone overboard there. If the three SPs starting out on the DL come back healthy by May, I should have pitching to trade, and with Revere, probably speed as well. I'd feel a little better on the hitting side with another power hitter (especially if Ramos ends up missing time with a hand injury), but I should do pretty well there even without. There are a couple of buys I would have done differently in hindsight (one fewer DL'd pitcher would probably have been a good idea), but I'm happy with this team overall.
Comment