RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects ("Opening Day" Edition)

[Hammer]

Thanx for the response, E-Z Glider.

I will be doing an update soon, shortly after the draft. So far, my list is available publicly only here.

RHD,

As many others have said on this site, you do a terrific job and I very much appreciate your work. Looking forward to seeing the next update.

[rhd]

RHD,

As many others have said on this site, you do a terrific job and I very much appreciate your work. Looking forward to seeing the next update.

I appreciate the kind props, Hammer!

[Bodhizefa]

RHD,

As many others have said on this site, you do a terrific job and I very much appreciate your work. Looking forward to seeing the next update.

Ditto this! rhd, these lists and write-ups are tremendous, and I wouldn't know half the stuff I do about minor leaguers without you. Many many thanks, and I am greatly looking forward to your next update (and to see where the Gallos, the Betts, and the new draftees rank!)

[Judge Jude]

Will be picking 4th, 5th, or 6th in NL-only draft June 16, so looking forward to updates as well. no way I'll get the Mets guy at that pick and presumably not the Marlins overall No. 2, but at least 2 of the top 15 overall will be in my grasp...

[rhd]

Ditto this! rhd, these lists and write-ups are tremendous, and I wouldn't know half the stuff I do about minor leaguers without you. Many many thanks, and I am greatly looking forward to your next update (and to see where the Gallos, the Betts, and the new draftees rank!)

Thanx as always for your props, Bodhizefa.

Rt now, GAllo is #17, and Betts is #22.

[rhd]

Will be picking 4th, 5th, or 6th in NL-only draft June 16, so looking forward to updates as well. no way I'll get the Mets guy at that pick and presumably not the Marlins overall No. 2, but at least 2 of the top 15 overall will be in my grasp...

Next update should be up before 6/16.

[Judge Jude]

thanks!

signability a key for us, fyi - if guy doesn't sign and next year gets picked by an AL team, it's a wasted pick.....

[Bodhizefa]

Thanx as always for your props, Bodhizefa.

Rt now, GAllo is #17, and Betts is #22.

I just took Betts over Gallo in my mid-season minors draft mostly because of Betts' proximity to the show. But my God, the power that Gallo kid possesses is incredible! It wasn't an easy decision, I'll put it that way

[Judge Jude]

not contending this year, and assuming Polanco gets 131 AB, he loses his 1st yr of 4 yrs of eligibility. wondering if I'm better off trading for Bryant (below assumes Bryant is a 2015 Super 2)

2014 to Polanco partial 5 over nada, but doesn't help me
2015 to Polanco 5 over Bryant partial 5
2016 maybe Bryant 5 over Polanco 10
2017 maybe Bryant 10 over Polanco 15
2018 I have Bryant 15, he has nada

[rhd]

not contending this year, and assuming Polanco gets 131 AB, he loses his 1st yr of 4 yrs of eligibility. wondering if I'm better off trading for Bryant (below assumes Bryant is a 2015 Super 2)

2014 to Polanco partial 5 over nada, but doesn't help me
2015 to Polanco 5 over Bryant partial 5
2016 maybe Bryant 5 over Polanco 10
2017 maybe Bryant 10 over Polanco 15
2018 I have Bryant 15, he has nada

I wouldnt do that trade. In real baseball, the consensus seems to be that these 2 prospects project to have similar value. But in roto, Polanco projects to be more valuable because he'll get a lot of SBs, whereas Bryant wont. Yeah, Bryant will hit more HRs but Polanco will hit a lot of them too and Polanco's advantage in SBs will more than make up for his deficit in HRs. Plus he's performed at a higher minor league level than Bryant and is in MLB rt now. Even if their roto value was roughly equal, I'd still keep Polanco because I wouldnt trade for someone unless I thought they clearly had significantly more value than the guy I'm trading. Re: the extra year that I'd have Bryant, that is pretty far into the future and I'd trust my abilities to acquire another prospect in my minor league system by then that has similar value to Bryant.

[Judge Jude]

thanks, interesting take...

[Gregg]

thanks, interesting take...

Yes it is.

That said with Polanco up today plus the sb aspect, could you get Bryant and another keeper? Talent like Bryant does not come along everyday either. He is a beast and a fast learner. I am not so sure a talent like Bryant will be had in the next couple of years.

[cardboardbox]

I wouldnt do that trade. In real baseball, the consensus seems to be that these 2 prospects project to have similar value. But in roto, Polanco projects to be more valuable because he'll get a lot of SBs, whereas Bryant wont. Yeah, Bryant will hit more HRs but Polanco will hit a lot of them too and Polanco's advantage in SBs will more than make up for his deficit in HRs. Plus he's performed at a higher minor league level than Bryant and is in MLB rt now. Even if their roto value was roughly equal, I'd still keep Polanco because I wouldnt trade for someone unless I thought they clearly had significantly more value than the guy I'm trading. Re: the extra year that I'd have Bryant, that is pretty far into the future and I'd trust my abilities to acquire another prospect in my minor league system by then that has similar value to Bryant.

just a real quick counterpoint...
Polanco isnt going to be a power hitter short term. Next year I'd estimate about 15 HR. He's also fairly big so not sure he'll be a great SB guy for very long.

Even if the $ value of Polanco is greater than Bryant due to SB, I'd rather build around a guy that I can count on hitting 30 HR/yr and have a shot at 40 HR occasionally. In todays game, HR is so rare to find in season while SB isnt.

The only real question to me is whether Bryant is a .250 hitter in the majors or .280 or higher. .250 30 HR is a lot less appealing than .280 30 HR. Polanco likely to hit for a good average.

I would do as other suggested and try to get a little more.

[Sour Masher]

I like Bryant more than Polanco. Bryant is gonna be a beast.

[james33]

I'd prefer Polanco. Even if it is effectively four years of Bryant vs. three years of Polanco.

---Bryant projects to hit more HRs than Polanco, but by a smaller margin than Polanco will out-SB Bryant.
---Bryant's K rate concerns me - depresses his BA potentially and he could even potentially struggle even with his crazy power.

That said, Bryant is still a terrific prospect. I'd be looking to keep Polanco and trade everything else in the house (say, my two highest salaried players) for Bryant.