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Judge Jude's 2014 Anatomy of An Auction

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  • Judge Jude's 2014 Anatomy of An Auction

    NL-only 12-team 5x5

    keepers, 8 for 80
    C Rosario 10
    23O Prado 25
    2S Gordon 10
    OF Venable 12
    OF GBlanco 2
    SP Leake 3
    RP Cishek 10
    RP Hawkins 10

    NEED 15 for 180

    Preview: I walked in with one All-Star catcher and left with two - but neither was the one I started with! Yes, THAT kind of auction.

    I noted on another thread that the increased inflation rate since we made farmhands 5-S2 a few years ago (and we can keep up to 8 farmhands) and other forces have led to some crazy prices at auction (IKennedy 31 last year, 42 for BJ Upton, 40 for Heyward, 39 for RZimm etc)

    I have done well getting "middle-priced" guys in the 20s, but have found myself not quite able to spend enough. We have in-auction trading (I know, I know), and last year I dealt a farm pick late for a 13-unit Heisey late in the game so I wouldn't leave 10 units on the table and expected to be getting a better "end-gamer." (not)

    The solution: Pay the "nutty" price on one guy this time, an extra 10-12 units or so, otherwise stick with my usual habits. That's what I did, sort of. eventually. The story.....

    NEED 15 for 180

    C BUSTER POSEY 27 - One thing that has amazed me the past few years is that we would go 5-6 rounds before I could buy a single player at the (mildly inflated) HQ value. I'd pounce if I could, though. Well, here's Posey dangling for just that price. Why isn't he going higher? Whatever, I'll take it. NEED 14 for 153

    SP CLIFF LEE 32 - It's bizarro world, as nobody is wildly spending. Votto went for 38 (47 last year), I was the last guy driving Tulo up to 34 - and here's Lee at a reasonable price. Sold! and happy (Bumgarner 38 and Strasburg 37 are the later stud plays; Gio went for 31). NEED 13 for 121

    C YADIER MOLINA 20 - This is still in the first round of players! I know, nutty to grab a 3rd C 15 minutes into an auction, but this is UNDER value. How can I say no? Plus Posey can play 1B, and I doubt I'll get a good one. Very very weird, but I feel like I'm taking what the auction gives me, right? NEED 12 for 101

    SP ZACK GREINKE 25 - WTF? He's healthy, he's good, he's on a good team... Never dreamed this, but the inflation monster lurks, and I'm getting ahead of it as best I can. NEED 11 for 76

    OF ANGEL PAGAN 17 - Another guy nowhere near my target board, but doesn't feel risky and I still feel the inflation winds picking up in the distance. Waited a round or two before making this play. NEED 10 for 59

    OF ANDRE ETHIER 14 - Not as excited about this one, but some big spending is going on (Trumbo for 40! Stanton for 41, DLd Hamels 25 and Minor 18, Revere 27, Bonifacio 18) and I am wary of getting stuck in "that spot" where I can't seem to add another player for any price. NEED 9 for 45

    And HERE is where it hits the fan. I go a couple of rounds without landing anyone, and one owner still has 113 units left while others also are loaded. Seeing the talent left vs the money out there - something has to give. stuck doing another Heisey-esque move or two again?

    No., bigger. MUCH bigger. The owner next to me is almost broke, needs 12 for 21. Maybe he can send me a big bat for "cap relief?" I'm listening. He writes down what looks like "Bruce 30 for Rosario 10." Well, that gets me down to 2 All-Star C, lol, and my offense is lacking only - big power. I say I'll do it - then we immediately notice that the "30" is really a hastily-scribbled "38" which is what Bruce went for earlier. I hesitate - I'd go from 9 for 45 not to 9 for 25 but to 9 for 17............

    DEAL! (that's the nutty price buy, I suppose) NEED 9 for 17

    Another 3 rounds go by while I wait for the others to catch up. I wince when SCastro goes for 16 and Scutaro-DL for 6, but smile at THudson 14, CYoung 18, Morse and Lincecum 14, NWalker 20 - that's where I didn't want to be.

    2S RAFAEL FURCAL 5 - Guh. Fatigue, got tired of not getting anyone, someone mentioned 2B-SS eligibility, I feel confident I can get palatable 1-unit Ps and OFs from the endgame board - ah, I got nothin'. NEED 8 for 12

    OF RYAN SWEENEY 3 - Another mystery. Mind was spinning on sense that there were more than enough guys I can live with so.... ah well. My 6th OF, too, so stuck with INFs in end game. NEED 7 for 9, most players needed of anyone, and most of us are about broke.

    RP K-ROD 2 - Felt like I hadn't added a pitcher since the Eisenhower administration, and he's been good to me in past years. NEED 6 for 7

    SP RANDALL DELGADO 2 - Oh, I guess I DO need a 4th SP if I can find one. Enjoyed his midseason efforts last year on my team, and well worth a flyer here. NEED 5 for 5

    1B LYLE OVERBAY 1 - Good news at this point is that no one can bid 2. Bad news is, no one is worth 1! NEED 4 for 4

    13 TRAVIS ISHIKAWA 1 - meh. NEED 3 for 3

    2S CHARLIE CULBERSON 1 - We all notice that, after the trade and the shifting around and owning a bunch of multi-positional INFs, that I need one more to fill out roster. Best available Rockie, and I hope he's the victim when FA Rutledge is recalled so I can pounce. NEED 2 for 2

    SP BRANDON MCCARTHY 1 - Not a fan, but the price is right. But I passed in this frantic end game when I could have taken Taylor Jordan. Dammit! NEED 1 for 1

    RP BRAD ZIEGLER 1 - Comfortable with this. DONE except for

    FURCAL DL REPLACEMENT - JOAQUIN ARIAS is the temporary Scutaro fill-in, so ok.

    ROSTER

    SP CLee 32
    SP Greinke 25
    SP Leake 1
    SP Delgado 2
    SP McCarthy 1
    RP Cishek 10
    RP Hawkins 10
    RP K-Rod 2
    RP Ziegler 1

    C Posey 27
    C Molina 20
    1B Overbay 1
    3B Arias 10
    2B Prado 25
    SS DGordon 10
    13 Ishikawa 1
    2S Culberson 1 (Furcal 5)
    OF Bruce 38
    OF Pagan 17
    OF Ethier 14
    OF Venable 12
    OF Blanco 2
    UT Sweeney 3

    It's a bizarre hitting roster - crazy-good Cs, good OF, awful infield. But I walked in with one of the weakest keeper lists, and feel like I made some noise. We have somewhat limited replacement rules, but I'll be exploiting all of them and will look to make some deals.

    Fun league - the defending champ and I go back to the original 1984 auction, 5 others have been in since the 1980s, 3 more since the 1990s, and the two "new kids" joined in 2002. youngest owner is mid- to late-40s, oldest (the champ) is 71, and we giggle throughout. Good to be young again, one day a year!
    finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
    own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

    SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
    RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
    C Stallings 2, Casali 1
    1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
    OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

  • #2
    I don't like the mid-auction trade but the rest seems fine... actually, strike that, I think I just don't like it. I know 12-team NL is thin but that is a lot of non-playing guys. Admittedly my philosophy in 12-team only is just to get at bats and figure out the quality later, so maybe I'm not going to like it even if it's decent... but I gotta think after the auction someone is going to hate their catcher situation and Rosario is really good and cheap and I gotta think you might have been able to get Bruce or the equivalent afterward without having to take on the extra salary during the auction - I'd rather have Rosario/SCastro/someone for 18 than Bruce/Ishikawa/Culberson anyway, and I wouldn't be surprised if you could have ended up with Bruce/Castro/18.
    In the best of times, our days are numbered, anyway. And it would be a crime against Nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were presumably designed in the first place, and which the gravest statesmen and the hoarsest politicians hope to make available to all men in the end: I mean the opportunity to do good work, to fall in love, to enjoy friends, to sit under trees, to read, to hit a ball and bounce the baby.

    Comment


    • #3
      possibly yes. the most complicated part is that when you see a Castro go for 16, you think, "well, that could have been me."
      except it's you and the actual 16 bidder. for all I know, that guy might have gone to 22 and I'd be glad I didn't "wait."

      Overbay on the good side of a platoon, Ishikawa on the other side, Culberson is the only Rockies backup 2B-SS (unless Rutledge replaces him, which would be a coup for me). Furcal may be back soon, Prado allows me to bounce positions around, and we'll see with Sweeney.

      I had no shot at walking out with a "wow" team, but I added some good players and may be able to upgrade on the bums quickly.

      thanks for the response
      Last edited by Judge Jude; 03-30-2014, 10:40 PM.
      finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
      own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
      won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

      SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
      RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
      C Stallings 2, Casali 1
      1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
      OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

      Comment


      • #4
        JJ, this is always one of my favorite reads each year. The dynamic is always a bit different. I find myself in a similar position most years -- I wade in early in big fashion before people correctly account for inflation, but then pull back (and regret it). Your three catcher play was fantastic. Wouldn't have done the deal for Bruce but other than that I like it. It cost you a ton of auction dollars, which is the real hit. But you did identify buys early on.

        Overall I think it's a pretty balanced squad. The overpays were generally modest and you have production. A bit light on thump and SB. But BA will be solid and counting stats ok. Should be able to make one trade to shore up weakness, though there aren't many other than SB / HR. Good luck this year!

        Comment


        • #5
          I really don't like the trade either. You were killing it up to that point. I know you were scared of the inflation around the corner, but I'd have rather kept the 3 catchers and had 45 left for 9 spots. You could have upgraded a couple of those Overbay/Sweeney spots even if it meant overpaying. In a vacuum I really like Overbay (great park, won't face lefties) and Blanco (great talent, maybe Morse isn't the answer, also hedges Pagan) and even Ishikawa (can hit some doubles, won't face lefties) but having all 3 of them plus Sweeney and Furcal is a little rough.

          Same with the pitching, I like K-Rod a lot and I'm a big McCarthy fan but having both of Leake/Delgado might be playing with fire. Or Lee and Grienke will soak up their ratios and you'll be fine. Hard to say.

          Comment


          • #6
            lotta league chatter today on THE DEAL, of course - and it's all over the map as you might expect.

            the other guy mainly bought Lake 11 and Parra 9 with the extra money - decent prices, but we'll see. HR are so scarce these days, hence Trumbo going for 40. As Sharky notes, might be just ok in power even WITH Bruce.

            HQ gives me 134 HR and 114 SB, AVG of .271.
            finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
            own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
            won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

            SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
            RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
            C Stallings 2, Casali 1
            1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
            OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

            Comment


            • #7
              I think the trade was Albuquerque. As in, everything was going great for you at the draft, and then you took a wrong turn in Albuquerque. If needing power was the reason for it, I don't understand why you gave up Rosario. Basically, you got 5-7 HR for $28 draft dollars. Rosario was essentially your first baseman at that point (because of Posey moving over). So, instead of Rosario and a $29 OF, you end up with Bruce and Ishikawa. I have to think that you could have ended up better with the Rosario combination.

              Comment


              • #8
                That's probably true.
                finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
                own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
                won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

                SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
                RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
                C Stallings 2, Casali 1
                1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
                OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

                Comment


                • #9
                  But a great read as always, Judge Jude. I think I am inspired enough (and took the afternoon off work) to do my own!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    One other thing is that I have been finding that in leagues that do big dump deals, like this one, it can be frustrating if you have and paid for good players at all the corner and OF slots - because you are trying to acquire, say, a big bat for a top farmhand and a bum - but you may not have any bums to offer. Yes, you want the best total talent, but spreading it out over every slot can diminish a later return on investment.

                    Doesn't so much make this a GOOD deal as a complicating factor in evaluating it.

                    and hey, looks like I have a third close in K-Rod
                    finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
                    own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
                    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

                    SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
                    RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
                    C Stallings 2, Casali 1
                    1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
                    OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      It was an overpay (from a trade perspective) in the heat of the moment. But, we've all done it...from the standpoint of overpaying for a player during the auction, because we hated the remaining alternatives left on the board.

                      At least your loyalty to K-Rod is already paying dividends.

                      PS: Thanks for doing the write-up. As always, it was informative and entertaining...especially with my auction coming up next Saturday.
                      2021 Auction Anatomy
                      2021 Keeper Decisions
                      2020 Auction Anatomy
                      2020 Pre-Auction
                      2015 Auction Anatomy
                      2014 Auction Anatomy
                      2011 Auction Anatomy

                      RotoJunkie Posts: 4,314
                      RotoJunkie Join Date: Jun 2001
                      Location: U.S.A.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        UPDATE as April ends

                        Bottom line, I'm in 7th place on May Day.
                        leader and 100 pct sure locked-in repeat champ has 107.5 pts, then it's 86, 82, 77, 76.5, 66, me at 58.5. and the rest are 58, 49, 47.5, 41.5, and 30.5)

                        shining stars are Pagan, Molina, Gordon - plus CLee, Greinke and the 27-SV bullpen of K-Rod, Cishek, and Hawkins.
                        disasters include OFs Bruce, Venable, Ethier, Blanco, and Prado - plus SPs McCarthy and Delgado.

                        just traded Cishek for Cain 26 (as of today; trade before finger injury) to balance those scales, still lead in SV by 13 over runnerup.
                        midpack in all other pitching cats except Ws where with 2 more I'd be midpack.

                        4thT in SB and 6th in AVG, but 3-2-1 pts in R-RBI-HR is the killer. had a stretch where the league hit 100+ HRs in one stretch and I had NONE; have been ok there before and since but still haven't healed that wound yet.

                        only other moves so far are Rutledge for Culberson and GGarcia for Ishikawa. roster below

                        I have to replace Delgado, who is good in long relief but out of AZ options. not sure if I'd go RP or SP, though. would love to stumble into still more SV that I could flip for offense. Delgado would be 2nd of 6 waiver moves all year, and amazingly bums like Overbay (hitting .300 entering today!), Sweeney, Rutledge, Blanco, and Arias are no worse than the waiver wire anyway. best hope would be some injuries or releases there, I suppose.

                        GPolanco coming up and raking would be a big help, but at best we're all playing for 2nd. We have a June 15 one-round farm draft based on that day's order of standings, so at this rate I'll go in the 6th or 7th range and get a mid-1st rd NL June pick if I like (or maybe grab a hitter who is close to a callup, for immediate boost).

                        have some decent keeper options for 2015; only lame duck now is GBlanco, who is, well, lame.

                        see you next month!
                        Last edited by Judge Jude; 05-01-2014, 01:48 PM.
                        finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
                        own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
                        won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

                        SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
                        RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
                        C Stallings 2, Casali 1
                        1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
                        OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Thanks for the update JJ. Good luck with the climb.

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