Help me with 4th picks (overall and dynasty keeper) - draft 9PM tonight (3/19/14)

[virgonomic]

Here is my team entering the draft (14 teams, 5x5 H2H)

C
1B
2B
3B Beltre
SS Reyes
OF Gomez
OF Choo
OF
U
P Strasburg (dynasty keeper)
P Cobb (dynasty keeper)
P
P
P
P
P


I have the 4th pick in the odd rounds. The best non-keepers available based on ADP are:
Kemp
Cespedes
Desmond
JHamilton
Jansen
Pedroia
Holland
Ortiz

I'll be looking to fill 2 spots with big sticks. I doubt Cespedes falls to me, so I am leaning towards Pedroia as the safest pick. Are Kemp and Hamilton too risky if they 'fall' to me? Are Ortiz or Abreu too much of a reach?

Rounds 19-23 can be kept forever, backfilling from Round 23. I have Stras and Cobb kept in rounds 22-23. Last year Myers and Hamilton were drafted in the regular rounds, but most of the young talent should be available this year. Are these the 4 guys I want, or should I move someone else up?

Byron Buxton, OF, MIN
Oscar Taveras, OF, StL (mid)
Javier Baez, SS, Cubs (June)
Carlos Correa, SS, HOU
-----------------------
Kris Bryant, 3B/SS, CHC
Kevin Gausman,SP, BAL
Archie Bradley, SP, ARI
Gregory Polanco, OF, PIT
Taijuan Walker, SP, SEA

TIA!

[mjl]

I would also take Pedroia first, Papi as my second choice. I assume Papi doesn't qualify at first yet but might during the season? Desmond would be higher if you didn't already have a SS keeper, although I think I might like him better than Reyes. I would not take Hamilton or Cespedes early.

Agree with your minor league ordering. I think Bryant is close to your top four in quality. Also there is no way in hell Bryant is ever playing SS in the majors, not sure where you got that.

[wombat104]

My top 4 would be:
Pedroia
Ortiz
Cespedes
Kemp

For the minors portion my order would be:
Javier Baez, SS, Cubs
Byron Buxton, OF, MIN
Carlos Correa, SS, HOU
Oscar Taveras, OF, StL
A. Russell, SS, OAK

[virgonomic]

I would also take Pedroia first, Papi as my second choice. I assume Papi doesn't qualify at first yet but might during the season? Desmond would be higher if you didn't already have a SS keeper, although I think I might like him better than Reyes. I would not take Hamilton or Cespedes early.

Good point - in Yahoo! Ortiz qualifies at 1B. I have picks #4 and 25 so I will only get one of them.

I could have kept Desmond but traded for Reyes. I'm a Blue Jays fan and drool at the thought of him staying healthy. I drafted him last year and had a contingency plan (Lowrie) which worked out. This is probably his last chance with me.