Auction draft strategy - going for the scrubs early

[price]

I've never gone into a draft in my 6 years of doing it with less than $100 to spend. After winning it last year I have a lot of expensive stars in my 12 team AL only league and I am considering going in with 9 excellent guys leaving about $70-80 to spend.

I haven't seen it attempted in my league, but since a lot of teams will have a lot of money to spend and I need to find deals, is it a good strategy to throw out some bottom of the barrel guys with some decent upside in hopes that other owners will just blow them off as they are focused on bigger needs? I have seen over the years a lot of these type of guys go for more than they should have because teams ended up with more money near the end and a couple of teams would bid these $1 guys up to $5,6,7 bucks.

Anyone with any ideas or experience seeing this done effectively?
Thanks

[DMT]

I would advise 1st testing the waters with a scrub you're not that interested in...if he goes for more than you want to pay for the other guys, then hold off and hope.

[Moonlight J]

Throw the scrub out at $2.....if someone really wants them, they'll go $3. Anyone will say $2 to a $1 player thrown out in the early to mid part of the draft.

[Todd Zola]

I would advise 1st testing the waters with a scrub you're not that interested in...if he goes for more than you want to pay for the other guys, then hold off and hope.

Actually, all that means is one other person was interested in THAT scrub. Especially in a keeper league auction, sometimes it is beneficial to know what you have to work with and I have found this to be a very effective strategy.

What I do is throw him out and not bid at all until the going twice if it is a price I want. It may not be until the third scrub I nominate, but eventually I get a couple.

[The Dane]

Good advice above.

Here's what I would do (using 1B as an example for the hitter):

1) Target several "scrubs" for each slot you have open. Having a small pool to draft from would really hurt you here. Make two lists: A) Scrubs You Want That You Think You Can Get Cheap, and B.) Scrubs That You Don't Want But You Are Positive Will Go For More Than a Buck. The longer these lists are, the better you will be able to pull this off.
2) At first, throw out hitter scrubs you don't want but that you KNOW will go for more than a buck. This tests the waters.
3) Once a position fills on every roster, except yours, start throwing out scrubs you want for that position. When people have their 1B slot filled, they don't usually go the extra buck for CI and UT. They are likely searching for bargains to fill the flex positions, and are more apt to let a guy go for a buck or two. Also, there are far more viable options at UT/CI than there are at 1B. So, that's when you throw out a 1B scrub.
4) Obviously, this is more problematic for pitchers, especially starters. However, it is unlikely that in your paradigm, you are targeting closers, but probably speculating on saves. Throw out the handcuff to the closer when that closer is still available. You may still have a bidding war against owners who are also speculating, but likely the owners targeting saves will let him go and conserve budget for the real closer; you cut down your potential bidding opponents. After all the closers are gone, handcuffs cost WAY more, because the three or four owners who don't feel competitive in saves are scrambling to pick up every outside save opportunity they can find. You want to be far away from that action when it happens.

I find very often that inflation sanity hits the instant everyone has that position filled. I don't throw out anyone I am targeting as a steal until no one NEEDS him at a position. Sometimes this can be a game of musical chairs if people have too many 1Bs in the CI/UT positions creating too much scarcity, but most of the time, it works out. Your league is deep enough so that EVERYONE has a few scrubs on their team. Just make sure that the scrubs you like land on your team and the scrubs you don't land on someone else's team, the latter being more important than the former, in my opinion.

[Judge Jude]

Make sure you are comfortable with your pecking order, so that you know just which guys are worth a couple of bucks. You guys will draft roughly 12 true 1Bs for 1B and another 8 or 9 1Bs, roughly, for CI and UT. The last couple are only worth spending a buck on, of course.

The best position to play would be one where 6-8 players there are frozen, yet several studs are on the board. Some owners will be content to own a player there and not be overeager to bid on a second one too early (slot-clogging concerns), and others will still be dreaming of catching the big fish there. A boring 12-unit guy isn't likely to inspire a bidding war under those parameters.

Sicne you already have some studs, also be prepared to take any "boring" starting player - no issues with lack of experience, old age, or injuries - at least up to their non-inflated value. Then late, you can take some fliers..

[Gregg]

If you have high inflation you will not get a $5 position player for a buck no matter what you do. Unless of course it is in the end game. If you map out all of the 2b taking into account MI and UT that will be drafted it only makes sense that you will get one of the last 2 for a buck. So if you call out early the last one on the list for a buck and someone says two, you should know that you will get your guy. You have to pay attention to MI and UT slots to make this work.

[wannabegriffey]

This is one of the most interesting threads of the pre-season

[swampdragon]

You probably want to look at these scrubs as $3 players

throw him out - maybe a counter at $2 - then reluctantly bid $3 and walkaway if needed

try it with a pitcher first - it might just generate enough confusion that nobody cares

throw out a name that you dont really want but would take at $3 - then do it again next time up

[axman]

I find this works much better with older veterans. You don't want your young sleeper getting tossed out in a keeper league when everyone has lots of money and a team or two is thinking 2012 already.

[MagSeven]

I find this works much better with older veterans. You don't want your young sleeper getting tossed out in a keeper league when everyone has lots of money and a team or two is thinking 2012 already.

Someone in our league does this constantly and can't understand why the younger player goes at a premium.

[The Dane]

Someone in our league does this constantly and can't understand why the younger player goes at a premium.

The opposite is also true. I generally avoid too many young players, especially those with zero major league experience. This year, I plan on throwing Brandon Belt out with my first toss. He'll go for $20 or more (it's an SF-based league) and be lucky to earn half that.

[rotorooter]

I tend NOT to throw out scrubs that I am aiming for until money is running low. In my league, scrubs who are hot usually have had good Spring Training and everyone has some interest in him. Since they have the money they will bid the extra few $.
The best bargains I find are:
1. Beginning of auction for high priced players because the ceiling has not yet been set.
2. Scrubs at end of draft what I call "Dollar Days"; if you have any money you can get who you want.
3. After all the big names gone and 1-2 big names left at that position-- if you bring you someone you want at that position
those with $$ will tend to let him slide with hope of landing the big remaining fish.

Since you have some $60-80, you will have a chance to grab who you want if you bring them up in point #3 or wait
and find some #2.
So my answer is "no" to bringing them up early in the auction.