NL trade

[FBP]

NL keeper league. 10 teams 25 man rosters (15/10)

I give Corbin $2 in option year (I personally would not extend)
I get Eric Young $5 in option year, Cueto $13 in 2nd year and Wilmer Flores $1 in second year(a wild card and not a key component of trade)

I have strong pitching (Samardzija $1, Cingrani $3, A. Wood $1, Medlen (ugh-may drop depending on medical reports when availble), Teheran $3 and Rosenthal $2. My offense is anchored by Goldie, LaRoche and may also keep a cheap Frasier and Gennett. No SBs there to speak of. I am inclined to do the trade, but not totally convinced.

Opinions please.

[Hammer]

I make that trade. I love Young as a steals and runs source at the top of the Mets lineup and while Cueto has been injury prone, he has been very good when healthy. I think youre selling Corbin at his high. I don't think he replicates last year.

[Fresno Bob]

I like Corbin and don't think Cueto has a healthy season left in him, so I'm less enchanted with the deal, but if you need steals, this seems like a good deal

[The Dane]

I also like Corbin and Cueto is about as high as I would go with his risk. I may be in the minority here, but I'd probably give up Cingrani before Corbin. His stock is way higher, but he's less proven, and I think he'll struggle in 2014. And you WILL be dropping Medlen, so you are deep in pitching, but not as deep as you thought. I like Young for that price.

I think it's a fair deal, but I'm not sure I would do it. I don't think this is a real reach to imagine: 1) Corbin merely repeats. 2) Cueto loses significant time to injury. 3) Flores doesn't find a job. In that case, you're just getting Young, and this trade is a painful memory. And while I LOVE your pitching, young and cheap, they are very young. Odds are good that at least half of Cingrani/Wood/Teheran/Rosenthal will struggle. This is probably why you are considering Cueto in the first place, but he's too injury-prone.

[james33]

I wouldn't worry about "Need" at this stage - you can always buy that at auction, so no worries if you don't have any stolen bases right now.

But I'd still do the deal. At those salaries, I'd slightly rather have Young than Corbin even in a one-for-one deal. Cueto isn't at a great price, but I'd guess with inflation somebody would pay $17-$19 for him, so getting him too is gravy.

[mjl]

In the interest of being contrarian: I don't know why people hate on Corbin so much. Is it because he was in the same system as Bradley and Skaggs and Holmberg and a bunch of other higher-profile guys? His worst partial FIP is a 4.00 in his first half-season in the majors and that's largely from getting bombed in two of his last three starts while trying to stretch to pitching over 190 IP in a season. And I know the Mets are saying EYJr is going to be starting but... he's not a good hitter, he's not a good defender in CF, and Lagares is at least one of those. I actually thought http://risingapple.com/2014/03/09/me...ung-jr-debate/ was an interesting point - if the Mets can pick up someone who looks like a leadoff hitter, maybe they decide they don't need to force EYJr and his .310 OBP up there just to get some steals and they can start Lagares lower in the batting order.

[The Dane]

My god, no way Cingrani over Corbin.

I could be wrong, but Cingrani doesn't seem to have a deep enough arsenal to stick for long as a starter. I think when MLB hitters get a book on him, he will start getting lit up, especially in GASP. Then, they'll convert him to a reliever and he'll be all sorts of dominant out of the pen. Just my take.

[Moonlight J]

My god, no way Cingrani over Corbin.

Disagree

Slash lines:
Corbin: .240/.296/.376
Cingrani: .196/.281/.368

K%:
Corbin: 20.7%
Cingrani: 28.6%

Swing/Miss rate:
Corbin: 23.4%
Cingrani: 25.0%

Pitches in Play%:
Corbin: 41.0%
Cingrani: 31.6%

Chase%:
Corbin: 32.7%
Cingrani: 26.4%

Cingrani is adding a slider to his bag of tricks, while Corbin remains a 2-pitch pitcher against lefties. Over the second half of the season, batters hit .289/.339/.440 vs Corbin while league hit .180/.266/.317 off Cingrani. Cingrani got tougher to hit as the season went on while the opposite happened for Corbin.

[The Dane]

You may be right but Cingrani appears to have "it" to me. His upside looks like an absolutely dominant #1. I think we've already seen Corbin's upside. I'm certainly not saying that Corbin is bad and a $2 Corbin in an NL only is a pretty nice piece but I just don't think that he's all that. He, too, pitches in a bandbox, remember.

I agree that Cingrani's upside is much higher, but Corbin has had 315 MLB innings to prove himself. Hitters have seen him and he's adjusted and while he did tire down the stretch, he gave 200+ innings of 3.41 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Cingrani has 149 MLB innings. This is 49 starts vs. 18 starts. I think Corbin has proved so much more and therefore he is the better pitcher for the risk averse (like me). If both pitchers reach their potential, Cingrani is the better arm, by far, but I think Corbin has shown that he is a strong #3 with reasonable certainty.

I think you and I agree that you need BOTH of these types of pitchers to win. You need the young stud to hit when you got him cheap and unproven and you need the steady mid-rotation guy to give reliable stats that you got cheaply. We'll see how it shakes out, but for 2014, I'd gamble that Corbin's numbers are better than Cingrani's, and in a few years Cingrani could earn $30+ as a Kimbrel-light closer and show off his "it" three batters at a go.

[FBP]

Back to the subject at hand. I am still on the fence. Any other opinions?

[FBP]

Thanks to everyone for opinions. I did a modified trade when he also threw in a $3 Brothers, a $1 Ziegler, a $5 Putz and minor leaguer Alen Hansen. I also loked up Cueto's injury history. Since 2008 he made more than 30 starts every year except 2011 (24 starts) and 2013 (11 starts). Some risk with this trade, but a lot of potential upside too. As always, time will tell.

[The Dane]

Thanks to everyone for opinions. I did a modified trade when he also threw in a $3 Brothers, a $1 Ziegler, a $5 Putz and minor leaguer Alen Hansen. I also loked up Cueto's injury history. Since 2008 he made more than 30 starts every year except 2011 (24 starts) and 2013 (11 starts). Some risk with this trade, but a lot of potential upside too. As always, time will tell.

Well, I love a $3 Brother and Hansen. Putz and Ziegler probably aren't worth $6 as a pair, but they're useful pieces in the right format. This deal should work out fine for you.