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draft 3rd or 10th?

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  • #1

    draft 3rd or 10th?

    5x5 mixed, 10 teams, 24 man active roster (10 pitchers, 4 OF, 2 util, otherwise normal). Two keepers among players who were drafted after the 3rd round last year - mine are Puig and Scherzer. I came in third to last last year, so the first and second draft slots were already taken. Would I rather draft 3rd or 10th? Normal snake draft format.

    According to http://stats.nesn.com/mlb/adp.asp?pos=all and removing the guys who will be kept, this is approximately Goldschmidt + Wright or Hanley + Ellsbury.
    In the best of times, our days are numbered, anyway. And it would be a crime against Nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were presumably designed in the first place, and which the gravest statesmen and the hoarsest politicians hope to make available to all men in the end: I mean the opportunity to do good work, to fall in love, to enjoy friends, to sit under trees, to read, to hit a ball and bounce the baby.
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  • #2
    3rd, IMHO.
    "Instead of all of this energy and effort directed at the war to end drugs, how about a little attention to drugs which will end war?" Albert Hofmann

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    • #3
      I would take the 3rd pick and Goldschmidt.
      “Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.”

      ― Albert Einstein

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      • #4
        Third...you never know who might drop to you for your 2nd choice, and in a 10 teamer it should be pretty good. Getting one of the top 4 studs is a step up on the rest of the league, IMO.
        "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
        - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

        "Your shitty future continues to offend me."
        -Warren Ellis

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        • #5
          Can you list who is being kept?
          Find that level above your head and help you reach it.

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          • #6
            Don't overthink it. Take the 3rd slot.

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            • #7
              I assume you'd take Gold because Cutch and Cargo are kept? I'd rather have them then Gold.

              Any chance Jones or Braun fall to 10th?
              "The Times found no pattern of sexual misconduct by Mr. Biden, beyond the hugs, kisses and touching that women previously said made them uncomfortable." -NY Times

              "For a woman to come forward in the glaring lights of focus, nationally, you’ve got to start off with the presumption that at least the essence of what she’s talking about is real, whether or not she forgets facts" - Joe Biden

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              • #8
                I was just going off ADP. I'd probably take Cutch also.

                Top-30 players being kept, approximately, are CDavis, Hanley, Ellsbury (huh, didn't notice that), Darvish, Kipnis, CGomez, Rios, JFernandez.
                Last edited by mjl; 03-10-2014, 10:34 AM.
                In the best of times, our days are numbered, anyway. And it would be a crime against Nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were presumably designed in the first place, and which the gravest statesmen and the hoarsest politicians hope to make available to all men in the end: I mean the opportunity to do good work, to fall in love, to enjoy friends, to sit under trees, to read, to hit a ball and bounce the baby.

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                • #9
                  oh apparently we're screwing around with categories also. adding OPS and QS.
                  In the best of times, our days are numbered, anyway. And it would be a crime against Nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were presumably designed in the first place, and which the gravest statesmen and the hoarsest politicians hope to make available to all men in the end: I mean the opportunity to do good work, to fall in love, to enjoy friends, to sit under trees, to read, to hit a ball and bounce the baby.

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                  • #10
                    The latest forcaster has a return breakdown based on pick. The top picks are clearly the better picks. However, most of that increased value is in the first 3 rounds, and then it evens out after that. So in your situation, I'm not sure it will matter too much, but I'd take the 3rd pick anyway.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Sour Masher View Post
                      The latest forcaster has a return breakdown based on pick. The top picks are clearly the better picks. However, most of that increased value is in the first 3 rounds, and then it evens out after that. So in your situation, I'm not sure it will matter too much, but I'd take the 3rd pick anyway.
                      I kind of agree with this. The 23rd pick is potentially worth a good bit more than the 30th.

                      Can you take the 3rd and trade down?
                      "The Times found no pattern of sexual misconduct by Mr. Biden, beyond the hugs, kisses and touching that women previously said made them uncomfortable." -NY Times

                      "For a woman to come forward in the glaring lights of focus, nationally, you’ve got to start off with the presumption that at least the essence of what she’s talking about is real, whether or not she forgets facts" - Joe Biden

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by mjl View Post
                        oh apparently we're screwing around with categories also. adding OPS and QS.
                        I think Goldy and CarGo increase their value with OPS added, and Cutch slides just a hair. I'm still taking Goldy.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by joncarlos View Post
                          I think Goldy and CarGo increase their value with OPS added, and Cutch slides just a hair. I'm still taking Goldy.
                          It looks like all of these names, but Goldy were kept. I'm shocked that Goldy was not kept. I doubt he lasts to pick 3, frankly. He is a top 5 pick available in round 3. Perplexing.

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                          • #14
                            Actually I was wrong in my initial post. Any player taken after the fourth round (not the third) was eligible to be kept. So the following players are definitely available:

                            Trout
                            Braun
                            Kershaw
                            Cabrera
                            Cano
                            McCutchen
                            Stanton
                            Kemp
                            Pujols
                            CarGo
                            Votto
                            Longoria
                            Posey
                            Jones
                            Fielder
                            Verlander
                            Tulo
                            Price
                            JUpton
                            Beltre
                            Bautista
                            Wright
                            Hamilton
                            Felix
                            Strasburg
                            Pedroia
                            Goldschmidt
                            Cain
                            Reyes
                            Harper
                            Hamels
                            Heyward
                            Mauer
                            Kinsler
                            Encarnacion
                            AGonzalez
                            Lee
                            Castro
                            Bruce
                            Weaver
                            In the best of times, our days are numbered, anyway. And it would be a crime against Nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were presumably designed in the first place, and which the gravest statesmen and the hoarsest politicians hope to make available to all men in the end: I mean the opportunity to do good work, to fall in love, to enjoy friends, to sit under trees, to read, to hit a ball and bounce the baby.

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                            • #15
                              There isn't much of a difference between picks 5-10 IMO so I would definitely take the 3rd spot. You'll get Goldschmidt or McCutchen barring any major blunders from the top 2 spots.
                              If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
                              - Terence McKenna

                              Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

                              How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

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