Medlen hurt

[pitbull]

Signing any pitcher with an injury history to a two year extension is crazy, imo, for this very reason. I think a very good case could be made for never extending any pitcher two years for any reason, honestly.

Medlen's career so far:

2009 - Mediocre middle reliever
2010 - Pretty good as a starter/reliever combo for all of 100 IP. TJ surgery at end of the year.
2011 - Sat entire year out recovering from TJ.
2012 - Really, really good as a starter/reliever. Still only threw 130-ish IP.
2013 - Well above average starter.

Guys like that you just take the profit and run. I'm not sure even extending him one year would have been the appropriate move. Maybe, but definitely not two.

Hard to argue against this.

[Sour Masher]

Signing any pitcher with an injury history to a two year extension is crazy, imo, for this very reason. I think a very good case could be made for never extending any pitcher two years for any reason, honestly.

I'm with you on any arm with a history of health issues, but I think the second part of your statement goes too far. In general, It think the best minds on this board are blinded by fear of SP extensions. I am not sure why. Maybe everyone remembers when they have been burnt and forget the times when they got an extra year of an elite arm at a super low price.

As a Dodgers fan, you know what a rock Kershaw has been. Surely, given the opportunity to extend him at a cheap price you would have, right? I know I am glad I did. There are exceptions to a rule like this. There is always risk, but there are players with a lot less risk than others. A pitcher in his mid-twenties with no injury history, no history of abuse by the team, no warning signs at all, and elite skills seems to be very good options for extension.

You can say that Kershaw is an exception, but I'd say we all know enough to identify if a pitcher is 1. elite enough that the potential payoff warrants the risk and 2. a lower risk than many arms because he has no history of overuse, no injury history, no poor mechanics etc. I know someone will bring up Mark Prior based in this risk assessment, and he is a good counter example, and there are others folks can bring up too, but I've extended a lot of arms, and while occasionally I regretted it, more times than not, I was happy to have the extra year of a cheap young arm.

[Sour Masher]

I don't think it does go too far and I don't think one anecdote changes that. You lucked out. Be glad you decided to do this with Clayton Kershaw and not Brandon Webb (or Sandy Koufax ). Clayton Kershaw is making a strong case for the best pitcher of our generation so I guess if you're going to roll the dice go ahead and do it with a guy like that. Kris Medlen is not that guy.

Oh, heck no on Medlen, but anyone could have seen he was a risk. I revised my previous post to make it, I hope, a bit more convincing. I'll put another name out there for someone I plan to extend. Jose Fernandez, barring an injury or massive skills erosion this year, will get an extension. Look, I'm not saying it is a long list, I'm just saying occasionally, a talent comes around that is worth the risk. As out there as my Kershaw example is, I think Carp is just as extreme in the other direction. No way I would have extended that guy, and I loved him.

But if you own Jose right now, he puts up a monster year, and you don't extend him, well, I just don't know how you do that. I can't. You aren't the first person on this board to suggest no extensions as an absolute rule for SPs. To me, such rules don't allow for cases that warrant exceptions.

[Sour Masher]

And I'll add this--in an alternative universe where he didn't get hurt last year or this year, I'd have extending Matt Harvey too. If he blew out his arm right after my extension, I still don't think it would have been the wrong call. He was worth the risk.

Now, all of this might be colored by the fact that I know, with the super elite young arms, I can move those contracts if I want to in my league. For instance, Matt Harvey is being kept in my league, and will be a valuable trade chip in-season. So, in my league at least, the risk of extending a really elite arm two years is not that great. If he gets hurt in the first extension year, he can be traded to a dumping team. If he gets hurt in the last year, you eat it, but that isn't so bad given the potential gain.

[Sour Masher]

Jose Fernandez is, at this stage, Mark Prior.


Edit: I didn't suggest no extensions, I suggested that a very good case could be made for avoiding two year extensions (or, god forbid, even longer) for pitchers.

I'll apologize for misreading your initial post, despite that fact that you hurt my soul by cursing Jose with the Mark Prior comp.

[pitbull]

I have to agree that with signing pitchers to extensions it is best not to go over 1 yr but the problem is you just never know. I had Harvey last season at $8 (from a trade the yr before) where he was going great and then he blows out his arm end of story. I suppose getting 2 good years out of Medlen and him going down before keeper lists are due may have been a blessing in disguise.

[bryanbutler]

i'm extending homer bailey 2 years, unless he blows his arm out in the next week...

[whalewang]

Medlen MRI showed "some involvement of the ligament" and he'll get second opinion and further evaluation.

[Moonlight J]

He went pick 170 in my draft last night. I wouldn't touch him - think Jaime Garcia last year in a best case scenario

[The Dane]

Medlen MRI showed "some involvement of the ligament" and he'll get second opinion and further evaluation.

Medlen MRI showed "no involvement on my keeper lists" and I'll replace him and move on.

[DJBeasties]

Sucks. I took him Sunday in a draft before I saw this. Rooting for a quick recovery!

[Moonlight J]

Wren says Medlen's MRI showed damage around the right elbow ligament. But they will wait a few more days to make a decision

Previous TJ surgery guys have tough MRI's. Look at Jonny Venters, who the Braves had go through something similar last year and eventually succumbed to his 2nd TJ surgery in 7 years.

[BuckyBuckner]

Medlin is signed through next year at $13 in my 12 team NL only. It would cost $6 of the draft day budget to buy him out. If he does have TJ I think you gotta buy him out.

[The Dane]

I'm with ElDiablo on pitcher extensions. If I had Kershaw for $1 right now, I'd happily extend him for three years, but in what league is THAT going to happen? I have him for $41 and I'm keeping him and if he stays steady next year, I'll likely keep him at $41 for his walk season. He's a great pitcher, but ALL pitchers are so statistically volatile, that long-term deals are almost always a disappointment. I suppose extending a $1 Medlen to $6 isn't the end of the world because the investment is so small for the risk, but when you are pushing $11 for a slot, you can't afford to come up zeroes and still compete, and pitchers so often fail to earn what you pay. Over all the years I've played this game, I have NEVER been disappointed that I didn't offer a pitcher a contract when I should have, I have often been disappointed when I signed contracts (Axford, most recently), and I have often been relieved when I decided against it. I cannot name one time when I wish I had signed one, and I can think of many times when I'm so glad I didn't. I can understand low-dollar-value extensions, but once you start getting into $11 range, the risk goes up considerably.

[gcstomp]

Luckily Dane found a donkey to eat the $11 Axford contract. I think the no more than 2 year extension rule on SP's is sound. Further, when there exists an overvaluing of SP contracts I happily move my SP's for hitters off season. An sp long term contract is a hot potato, it may look great that minute, but there is a much greater chance of implosion from the SP than the similar value hitter at any given time.