Keeper Help - NL Only

[Zupe]

Hi,

Our keeper deadline is a little over two weeks away, so I was hoping to get a few opinions on my protections. It's a standard 5x5, NL-Only Auction League. 10 Teams, $260 for 25 (2 C, 2 UT, 10 P), we can keep as many or as few players as we like.

All players are entering their second season unless noted. Players in their option year can be kept at the same price for one more year, or extended at $5 per additional season.

As a very brief background, my team was playing horribly last season, in last place in mid-July, so I threw in the towel and made two dump trades (though somehow, that lead to a run that had me end up in fourth place in the end). As a result, I feel like I have a lot of potential keepers at good prices, but may be lacking in real star players. On the pitching side especially, I have a bunch of guys I like and feel are under value, but probably wouldn't make for a great staff if I kept them all. Trading is sometimes difficult in this league, so I'm not sure whether I'm going to be able to address that before the auction or not.

C Wilson Ramos, Was $3
C. A.J. Ellis, LA $1 (Option Year)
1B Adam LaRoche, Was $9 (Option Year)
1B Ryan Howard, Phi $7
1B Ike Davis, NY $5
2B Aaron Hill, Ari $12 (Last year of guaranteed contract, must keep)
2B Anthony Rendon, Was $5
2B Rickie Weeks, Mil $21
3B Chase Headley, SD $14 (Option Year)
3B Cody Asche, Phi $5
3B Wilmer Flores, NY $5
SS Everth Cabrera, SD $8 (Option Year)
SS Chris Owings, Ari $5
OF Mike Stanton Mia $20 (Last year of guaranteed contract, must keep)
OF Bryce Harper, Was $3 (Option Year)
OF Marcell Ozuna, Fla $5

P Gio Gonzalez, Was $18 (Option Year)
P Kris Medlen, Atl $1 (Option Year)
P Brandon Beachy, Atl $5 (Option Year)
P Hyun-Jin Ryu, LA $14
P Alex Wood, Atl $5
P Dillon Gee, NY $5
P Jenry Mejia, NY $5
P Steve Cishek, Fla $6 (Option Year)
P Huston Street, SD $17
P Mark Melancon, Pit $1
P Rex Brothers, Col $1
P Pedro Strop, Chi $5

Minors (free to keep, price listed is salary when recalled):

- Billy Hamilton, Cin $10 (will have to be added if he makes the opening day roster)
- Max Fried, SD $3
- Roman Quinn, Phi $5
- Jorge Soler, Chi $3

Thanks.

[Sharky]

I would keep the guys flagged with ** below.


**C Wilson Ramos, Was $3
C. A.J. Ellis, LA $1 (Option Year)
1B Adam LaRoche, Was $9 (Option Year)
1B Ryan Howard, Phi $7
1B Ike Davis, NY $5
**2B Aaron Hill, Ari $12 (Last year of guaranteed contract, must keep)
**2B Anthony Rendon, Was $5
2B Rickie Weeks, Mil $21
**3B Chase Headley, SD $14 (Option Year)
3B Cody Asche, Phi $5
3B Wilmer Flores, NY $5
**SS Everth Cabrera, SD $8 (Option Year)
**SS Chris Owings, Ari $5
**OF Mike Stanton Mia $20 (Last year of guaranteed contract, must keep)
**OF Bryce Harper, Was $3 (Option Year)
OF Marcell Ozuna, Fla $5

P Gio Gonzalez, Was $18 (Option Year)
**P Kris Medlen, Atl $1 (Option Year)
**P Brandon Beachy, Atl $5 (Option Year)
**P Hyun-Jin Ryu, LA $14
P Alex Wood, Atl $5
P Dillon Gee, NY $5
P Jenry Mejia, NY $5
**P Steve Cishek, Fla $6 (Option Year)
P Huston Street, SD $17
**P Mark Melancon, Pit $1
**P Rex Brothers, Col $1
P Pedro Strop, Chi $5

Minors (free to keep, price listed is salary when recalled):

**- Billy Hamilton, Cin $10 (will have to be added if he makes the opening day roster)
**- Max Fried, SD $3
**- Roman Quinn, Phi $5
**- Jorge Soler, Chi $3


Would extend Cabrera one year to $8. Would extend Harper to $13 (beyond that eats into the value and adds unnecessary risk). Would also extend Medlen to $6.

Tough call on the 1B. They're all pretty mediocre but inexpensive. Make the call closer to the season on all 3.

[whalewang]

Building on what Sharky has said:

-keep Howard (don't keep the other firstbasemen)
-don't keep owings (he'd have to occupy a UTL slot)
-extend Harper more than one extra season
-I'd keep Gio Gonzalez over Ryu
-keep Street

[Gregg]

I would try to package Howard and Brothers for a good keeper.

if trading was not available I would not keep either. I would also not keep Gio in a 10 team. I would extend Harper to $18.

[The Dane]

C Wilson Ramos, Was $3 DEFINITE KEEPER
C. A.J. Ellis, LA $1 (Option Year) DEFINITE KEEPER (don't extend)
1B Adam LaRoche, Was $9 (Option Year)
1B Ryan Howard, Phi $7 KEEPER
1B Ike Davis, NY $5
2B Aaron Hill, Ari $12 (Last year of guaranteed contract, must keep)
2B Anthony Rendon, Was $5 DEFINITE KEEPER
2B Rickie Weeks, Mil $21
3B Chase Headley, SD $14 (Option Year) WATCH HEALTH/SPRING
3B Cody Asche, Phi $5
3B Wilmer Flores, NY $5 WATCH ROLE
SS Everth Cabrera, SD $8 (Option Year) KEEPER
SS Chris Owings, Ari $5 WATCH ROLE
OF Mike Stanton Mia $20 (Last year of guaranteed contract, must keep)
OF Bryce Harper, Was $3 (Option Year) DEFINITE KEEPER (extend three -or four- years)
OF Marcell Ozuna, Fla $5

P Gio Gonzalez, Was $18 (Option Year)
P Kris Medlen, Atl $1 (Option Year) DEFINITE KEEPER (extend one year)
P Brandon Beachy, Atl $5 (Option Year) KEEPER (don't extend)
P Hyun-Jin Ryu, LA $14 KEEPER
P Alex Wood, Atl $5
P Dillon Gee, NY $5
P Jenry Mejia, NY $5
P Steve Cishek, Fla $6 (Option Year) DEFINITE KEEPER (don't extend)
P Huston Street, SD $17
P Mark Melancon, Pit $1
P Rex Brothers, Col $1 KEEPER
P Pedro Strop, Chi $5


- Billy Hamilton, Cin $10 (will have to be added if he makes the opening day roster) DEFINITE KEEPER
- Max Fried, SD $3 WATCH HEALTH
- Roman Quinn, Phi $5 KEEPER
- Jorge Soler, Chi $3 DEFINITE KEEPER

[Zupe]

Thank you for the opinions so far. I'm a bit surprised by some of the picks, though I guess that was to be expected.

My preliminary thoughts were to keep the following:

C Wilson Ramos, Was $3
C. A.J. Ellis, LA $1 (Option Year) - on the fence about keeping
1B Ryan Howard, Phi $7
2B Aaron Hill, Ari $12 (Last year of guaranteed contract, must keep)
2B Anthony Rendon, Was $5
SS Everth Cabrera, SD $8 (Option Year) - probably extend one year to $13.
OF Mike Stanton Mia $20 (Last year of guaranteed contract, must keep)
OF Bryce Harper, Was $3 (Option Year) - had been planning to extend to $18.
OF Marcell Ozuna, Fla $5 - on the fence about keeping

P Gio Gonzalez, Was $18 (Option Year) - Surprised how many people said to throw him back. I have a tendency to do poorly in wins and Ks and he's probably the surest thing I have there, so had planned on keeping him.
P Kris Medlen, Atl $1 (Option Year) - debating whether to extend a year
P Brandon Beachy, Atl $5 (Option Year)
P Hyun-Jin Ryu, LA $14
P Alex Wood, Atl $5 - on the fence with both Wood and Gee. I like them, but definitely can't see keeping both. I'd been leaning towards keeping one though.
P Dillon Gee, NY $5 - see above
P Steve Cishek, Fla $6 (Option Year)
P Mark Melancon, Pit $1 - similar to Wood and Gee, I like both Melancon and Brothers, but can't see keeping both. Leaning towards Brothers but not completely sure.
P Rex Brothers, Col $1 - see above

Minors (free to keep, price listed is salary when recalled):

- Billy Hamilton, Cin $10 (will have to be added if he makes the opening day roster) - obviously keep
- Max Fried, SD $3 - on the fence, leaning towards throwing back
- Roman Quinn, Phi $5 - disappointing year, and then ruptured his achilles, so I don't expect to keep him
- Jorge Soler, Chi $3 - keeper

[Zupe]

I was able to work out a trade over the weekend with last year's championship team, who's now in partial rebuilding mode, though hoping to compete at the same time:

I gave up:

C. A.J. Ellis, LA $1 (Option Year)
1B Adam LaRoche, Was $9 (Option Year)
2B Aaron Hill, Ari $12 (Last year of guaranteed contract, must keep)
P Alex Wood, Atl $5
P Rex Brothers, Col $1

In exchange for:

C Wilin Rosario, Col $10 (Option Year)
1B Freddie Freeman, Atl $21 (Option Year)

So my revised roster to choose Keepers from is now:

C Wilson Ramos, Was $3
C Wilin Rosario, Col $10 (Option Year)
1B Freddie Freeman, Atl $21 (Option Year)
1B Ryan Howard, Phi $7
1B Ike Davis, NY $5
2B Anthony Rendon, Was $5
2B Rickie Weeks, Mil $21
3B Chase Headley, SD $14 (Option Year)
3B Cody Asche, Phi $5
3B Wilmer Flores, NY $5
SS Everth Cabrera, SD $8 (Option Year)
SS Chris Owings, Ari $5
OF Mike Stanton Mia $20 (Last year of guaranteed contract, must keep)
OF Bryce Harper, Was $3 (Option Year)
OF Marcell Ozuna, Fla $5

P Gio Gonzalez, Was $18 (Option Year)
P Kris Medlen, Atl $1 (Option Year)
P Brandon Beachy, Atl $5 (Option Year)
P Hyun-Jin Ryu, LA $14
P Dillon Gee, NY $5
P Jenry Mejia, NY $5
P Steve Cishek, Fla $6 (Option Year)
P Huston Street, SD $17
P Mark Melancon, Pit $1
P Pedro Strop, Chi $5

Minors (free to keep, price listed is salary when recalled):

- Billy Hamilton, Cin $10 (will have to be added if he makes the opening day roster)
- Max Fried, SD $3
- Roman Quinn, Phi $5
- Jorge Soler, Chi $3

I'm planning on keeping, but probably not extending, both new players (Freeman and Rosario), does this change anyone else's opinions on my other keepers? I'm also still on the fence when it comes to Headley, Ozuna (chances of him winning the starting job?), Owings (chances of him winning the starting job?) and Gee. Any input on those 4?

Thanks!

[joncarlos]

I really like Owings. I think he'll get some run as a utility guy even if he doesn't win the job.

C Wilson Ramos, Was $3 - yes
C Wilin Rosario, Col $10 (Option Year) - yes but I wouldn't extend
1B Freddie Freeman, Atl $21 (Option Year) - yes
1B Ryan Howard, Phi $7 - yes
1B Ike Davis, NY $5 - honestly I like him but not worth the gamble in a 10-teamer
2B Anthony Rendon, Was $5 - yes
2B Rickie Weeks, Mil $21 - no
3B Chase Headley, SD $14 (Option Year) - I think I would keep but not extend
3B Cody Asche, Phi $5 - no
3B Wilmer Flores, NY $5 - no
SS Everth Cabrera, SD $8 (Option Year) - yes, I would probably not extend, though I'd want to
SS Chris Owings, Ari $5 - yes
OF Mike Stanton Mia $20 (Last year of guaranteed contract, must keep) - yes
OF Bryce Harper, Was $3 (Option Year) - yes, I'd probably go 3yrs/18 if you can
OF Marcell Ozuna, Fla $5 - on the fence, probably no, I do think he gets 400 AB but not sure he's good

P Gio Gonzalez, Was $18 (Option Year) - yes, no extension
P Kris Medlen, Atl $1 (Option Year) - yes, I'd go 1 year
P Brandon Beachy, Atl $5 (Option Year) - on the fence
P Hyun-Jin Ryu, LA $14 - yes
P Dillon Gee, NY $5 - think I prefer him to Beachy but not sure
P Jenry Mejia, NY $5 - no
P Steve Cishek, Fla $6 (Option Year) - yes, no extension
P Huston Street, SD $17 - honestly I wouldn't, given that you have Cishek, but I can see an argument for keeping him
P Mark Melancon, Pit $1 - yes, I would.
P Pedro Strop, Chi $5 - no, re-buy if you really like

[Zupe]

Our keeper deadline is tomorrow, so I'm hoping for a bit more last minute input. With the recent issues for both Medlen and Beachy, I'm not quite as confident as I was before. With Medlen likely out for the year, I won't be keeping him, but I'm still undecided on Beachy. The last I've seen was that he'd miss at least one spring training start, and may start out on the DL, but there's no real indication of how long he'll be out. So is he worth a gamble at $5? It looks like there will be some, but not a ton, of pitching available in the auction, and the league has a tendency to overspend on top starters and closers more so than for hitters.

Also, I'm still not really any clearer on whether Chris Owings and Marcell Ozuna are keepers or not, as there doesn't appear to be much news on either beyond that Arizona will carry three shortstops for their early games, and that Owings and Gregorious appear to be almost dead even in the position battle. I like Owings (kind of hoping the Mets pull a trade for him :P) but $6 is a bit more than I'd ideally like to spend unless he has a job. In Florida, has Ozuna definitely claimed the starting CF job?

As of now, this is where I stand:

Keeping:

C Wilson Ramos, Was $3
C Wilin Rosario, Col $10 (Option Year)
1B Freddie Freeman, Atl $21 (Option Year)
1B Ryan Howard, Phi $7
2B Anthony Rendon, Was $5
3B Chase Headley, SD $14 (Option Year)
SS Everth Cabrera, SD $8 (Option Year) (leaning towards extending one year to $13)
OF Mike Stanton Mia $20 (Last year of guaranteed contract, must keep)
OF Bryce Harper, Was $3 (Option Year) (extending 3 years to $18)

P Gio Gonzalez, Was $18 (Option Year)
P Hyun-Jin Ryu, LA $14
P Dillon Gee, NY $5
P Steve Cishek, Fla $6 (Option Year)
P Mark Melancon, Pit $1

Minors (free to keep, price listed is salary when recalled):

- Billy Hamilton, Cin $10 (will have to be added if/when he makes the opening day roster)
- Max Fried, SD $3
- Jorge Soler, Chi $3

And then I'm on the fence with these 3:

SS Chris Owings, Ari $6
OF Marcell Ozuna, Fla $5
P Brandon Beachy, Atl $5 (Option Year)

Thanks.

[joncarlos]

What kind of inflation do you typically have? I agree that extending Cabrera is a little tricky. I might rather just spend that $5 extending Freeman. You don't get a lot of profit but if you have a lot inflation you have a nice anchor who's tough to find at a reasonable price.

I would definitely keep Owings. I think he is the starter by mid-season even if he doesn't win the job. I would toss Beachy. I would probably toss Ozuna too, he is still growing into his talents but the dude had 3 HR and 5 SB in a half season. I think you could find a $2 veteran who can give you a 6HR 10SB pace.

[Zupe]

Thanks for the responses. Inflation in this league tends to vary a lot, as we have a couple of owners that make very strange decisions about keepers, so it's very hard to predict before the keeper deadline. In general, the last few seasons there's been a tendency to up prices on top starting pitchers and, to a lesser extent, closers, where as hitters have seen less inflation. Part of my concern with losing Medlen and Beachy is that I'd been building as if I only needed to really spend on a couple of pitchers. With them gone, I'm going to have to budget significantly more in an area that tends to cost a premium.

With the latest news on Beachy, he seems like a definite throw back. I'll probably keep Owings, and am leaning towards no on Ozuna, just because I'm not sure he's going to beat out Marisnick for the starting job at this point.

As far as Cabrera - I'd been looking at him as being the option year player most likely to out-earn his salary by a significant amount (aside from Harper obviously). I'm not sure Freeman at $26 really helps much, as while I like him, I'd essentially be locking him in at right around his value. I'd thought about Rosario at one point as well, but don't feel very confident going to $15 on him.

[james33]

Comments on a few of your guys:

C Wilin Rosario, Col $10 (Option Year) - I'd extend Rosario to $15. He's young, one of the top handful of catchers in the league, and every league has inflation, and I find catchers to be more valuable in 10-team leagues in 12-team leagues, because the real scrub UTs aren't auctioned, but some poor sap has to get stuck with a non-starter at catcher.

SS Everth Cabrera, SD $8 (Option Year) (leaning towards extending one year to $13) - agree, I'd extend one year but not two years.

OF Bryce Harper, Was $3 (Option Year) (extending 3 years to $18) - big extension, but I'd do the same thing

P Dillon Gee, NY $5 - I'd throw him back, I don't see him going for much more than $6, or worth more, but I see your avatar has a Mets jersey, so perhaps I shouldn't be saying this.

P Steve Cishek, Fla $6 (Option Year) - agree, don't extend a closer unless he's really dominant

P Mark Melancon, Pit $1 - yeah, might as well.

SS Chris Owings, Ari $6 - yeah, some potential there, might as well keep him.

OF Marcell Ozuna, Fla $5 - I'd keep him in anticipation of more HR. His minor league numbers showed HR promise and he hit a lot of doubles last year and he is just 23. I like him better than Owings.