Over/under sp

[onejayhawk]

These are the SP from 100-300 per Yahoo. Who is noticably over/under valued?

Julio Teherán Atl 101
Hyun-jin Ryu LAD 103
Shelby Miller StL 105
Michael Wacha StL 115
Kris Medlen Atl 118
Danny Salazar Cle 125
Masahiro Tanaka NYY 127
Doug Fister Was 134
Johnny Cueto Cin 137
Jeff Samardzija ChC 138
Tony Cingrani Cin 141
Jered Weaver LAA 143
CC Sabathia NYY 144
Francisco Liriano Pit 147
Andrew Cashner SD 151
Hiroki Kuroda NYY 152
Jon Lester Bos 153
Lance Lynn StL 163
Matt Garza Mil 164
Clay Buchholz Bos 173
Chris Archer TB 175
Sonny Gray Oak 180
R.A. Dickey Tor 186
Justin Masterson Cle 188
C.J. Wilson LAA 201
A.J. Burnett Phi 205
Patrick Corbin Ari 206
Yovani Gallardo Mil 211
Tim Lincecum SF 216
Jake Peavy Bos 217
Ian Kennedy SD 220
Ervin Santana KC
Alex Wood Atl 223
Corey Kluber Cle 224
Brandon Beachy Atl 227
Zack Wheeler NYM 228
Ubaldo Jiménez Cle 235
Scott Kazmir Oak 236
Marco Estrada Mil 240
Tyson Ross SD 250
Taijuan Walker Sea 259
Dan Haren LAD 260
Chris Tillman Bal 261
Josh Johnson SD 262
Ricky Nolasco Min 263
Jarrod Parker Oak 268
A.J. Griffin Oak 273
Tim Hudson SF 276
Travis Wood ChC 277
Iván Nova NYY 279
John Lackey Bos 281
Dan Straily Oak 292
Kevin Gausman Bal 294
Derek Holland Tex 295
Jonathon Niese NYM 299

[mjl]

completely off the cuff: Straily seems low, Haren might be low, Alex Wood's rating is fine if he's actually a starter for the whole season but I have some doubts about that, and Lincecum is pretty optimistic.

[Don Quixote]

Too low--Parker, Kluber, Nova, Straily

Too high--Josh Johnson (ineffectiveness and injury), Cueto (multiple injuries), CC maybe (age?), Tanaka (yet to throw a pitch here)

[Pauly]

Beachy jumped off the page at me as being undervalued. Estrada and Jarrod Parker and even Pat Corbin seem low.

[axman]

I like the Oakland trio of Griffen, Parker and Straily to out-perform those draft spots.

[Don Quixote]

Beachy jumped off the page at me as being undervalued. Estrada and Jarrod Parker and even Pat Corbin seem low.

If Beachy was healthy, I'd agree with you, but he's coming off 2012 TJ surgery and missed last September with shoulder issues.

[onejayhawk]

If Beachy was healthy, I'd agree with you, but he's coming off 2012 TJ surgery and missed last September with shoulder issues.

Some of these seem to be that sort of balancing act. Beachy is high risk/high reward.

Suppose:
50% chance Beachy produces in the 80-120 range
10% chance that he is even better and
40% of another lost season,
what is his value?

Tinker with the percentages as you wish.

J