Auction Strategies

[Hammer]

I realize this is a regurgitation to earlier threads but I thought it might be good to restart to rekindle time valued ideas as well as maybe some new successful strategies.

As far as tossing first, I throw the highest valued players at a position where I am covered.

[DMT]

Calculate inflation
Create tiers
Determine which tiers will be easiest to target
Pay attention to auction dynamics and adjust when necessary

[willthethrill]

If I had to order them in order of importance:

Create tiers
Determine which tiers will be easiest to target
Pay attention to auction dynamics and adjust when necessary
Calculate inflation

I know that placing the importance of inflation that low might be contrary to many's opinions, but I really focus on tiering and adjusting.

[mgwiz22]

I don't believe in tiers in an auction and I think people over emphasize inflation.

[Don Quixote]

I like to figure inflation just as information, to get an idea of how much I'll likely need to add to my valuations in order to get the players I want. It's not a hard-and-fast thing for me.

Guesstimate other teams' keepers
Preliminary estimate of inflation
Calculate inflation
Create tiers
Note which players I prefer within each tier
Go into the auction with a clear idea of who and how much
"No battle plan survives contact with the enemy"
"WTF did I just do?"

[CoachK]

I think people over emphasize inflation.

I agree. I think it's important to understand inflation, maybe even estimate it, but that's just something to keep in the back of your mind and to consider when some studs go for 50 instead of your expected 40.

[DMT]

I don't believe in tiers in an auction and I think people over emphasize inflation.

I'm puzzled by your disbelief in tiers. They're simply lists broken into smaller sub-groups.

[DMT]

As for inflation, in most leagues that have been around long enough, inflation is just built-in to people's expectations, but I've seen plenty of times when teams have completely screwed themselves by waiting around too long for the 'crazy prices' to come down.

[The Dane]

1) Find out the players I like.
2) Find out the players I don't like.
3) Pay what it takes to get the players I like.
4) ???
5) Profit

[mgwiz22]

I'm puzzled by your disbelief in tiers. They're simply lists broken into smaller sub-groups.

I agree but in an auction everyone has a price the players don't necessarily fit into particular sub-groups. Even if they did fit your groups they really wouldn't matter. If all of the players are properly priced and your money properly spent in the auction it doesn't matter what tier a particular player falls. What matters is whether you have maximized your value for the team as a whole.

[DMT]

I agree but in an auction everyone has a price the player don't necessarily fit into particular sub-groups. Even if they did fit your groups they really wouldn't matter. If all of the players are properly priced and your money properly spent in the auction it doesn't matter what tier a particular player falls. What matters is whether you have maximized your value for the team as a whole.

Ok, but that is impossible to do beforehand. The point is, player talent/value is not normally distributed at each position, nor across positions. Once you begin acquiring players, it is greatly beneficial IMO to begin to hone in on where players of similar value are bunched, because it decreases the chance of getting outbid on a particular player and then not being able to find a replacement of similar value.

[mjl]

Out of curiosity, what do you do with that information once it's happened?

Sure, once it's happened it's probably too late, but I have had far more auctions than I like to admit where the first guy I had valued at $35 went for $47 and I said to myself "man those two teams are crazy, I'll get the next best player out there" and then ended up with the equivalent of Jayson Werth and Mat Latos being the best players on my team - not that those two are terrible but they are the sort of guys you end up with when you think the first 15 players all went for too much. You don't need to have inflation calculated to the penny, and you probably don't need to update it during the auction, but at least knowing what to multiply your price targets by to get realistic numbers is very useful.

[mgwiz22]

Ok, but that is impossible to do beforehand. The point is, player talent/value is not normally distributed at each position, nor across positions. Once you begin acquiring players, it is greatly beneficial IMO to begin to hone in on where players of similar value are bunched, because it decreases the chance of getting outbid on a particular player and then not being able to find a replacement of similar value.

If I don't get somebody of similar value at one position I get one at another position.

[Fresno Bob]

If I don't get somebody of similar value at one position I get one at another position.

but you need to fill every position, and if there are a zillion ss that you value similarly in say Tier 3, why not go the extra buck on the last Tier 2 2b and wait on SS?

[mgwiz22]

but you need to fill every position, and if there are a zillion ss that you value similarly in say Tier 3, why not go the extra buck on the last Tier 2 2b and wait on SS?

Because then I'll have less to spend on the other positions and my overall team will be worse for it. At the end the stats don't care what position your players play.