Overvalued in 2014

[Erik]

Votto has morphed into the "better in real baseball than in Roto" category, which is very rare for an elite 1B. He's more of a help in OBP leagues, which mine is.

[kldub4life]

Max Scherzer - someone will pay for at least the repeat not me.

[chancellor]

Votto has morphed into the "better in real baseball than in Roto" category, which is very rare for an elite 1B. He's more of a help in OBP leagues, which mine is.

I took him last year in our mixed league that uses OBP, and was pleased. But in most leagues, you're dead on. I'd put him in the mid-20s pick area in terms of value in a traditional 5x5, even lower in 4x4.

[Don Quixote]

This is bad logic

Votto saw 42.3% of pitches in the strike zone when he came to bat with RISP; that was in the bottom 15th percentile in the league. Only Dan Uggla of all people chased fewer pitches out of the zone in RISP situations.

Let's say Choo got on 2nd, and Cozart struck out or grounded out and didn't advance the runner. Votto comes up with a run expectancy of 0.72. If he expands his zone and gets an out, run expectancy drops to .348. If he simply gets on base, , run expectancy goes to 0.963.

It's not Votto's fault that Dusty wasted the 2 hole all season long putting their worst hitters there.

context, context, context. It's understandable that he doesn't expand his strike zone with a runner on second and less than two outs. What drives people mad is that he doesn't look to simply loft the ball with a runner on third and less than two outs, or for something close that he can hit hard with a runner on second and/or third in close games. He doesn't change his approach regardless of the situation. Two outs, runner on third, base hit wins or ties the game, nope, he'll take the walk.

[Lucky]

context, context, context. It's understandable that he doesn't expand his strike zone with a runner on second and less than two outs. What drives people mad is that he doesn't look to simply loft the ball with a runner on third and less than two outs, or for something close that he can hit hard with a runner on second and/or third in close games. He doesn't change his approach regardless of the situation. Two outs, runner on third, base hit wins or ties the game, nope, he'll take the walk.

Brings up a question I have seen debated more than once. Can a batter intentionally hit a sac fly? Loft the ball so that it goes far enough to advance the runner, but not far enough to clear the fence?

I don't think so, but reasonable minds can differ.

[Don Quixote]

Brings up a question I have seen debated more than once. Can a batter intentionally hit a sac fly? Loft the ball so that it goes far enough to advance the runner, but not far enough to clear the fence?

I don't think so, but reasonable minds can differ.

I'm not sure. I think some guys can intentionally hit a lazy fly ball. During his time with the Reds, time after time I saw Ken Griffey Jr. come up in the 8th or 9th inning of a game that was long since decided, swing at the first pitch, hit a lazy fly to medium-deep CF, and peel off the first base line towards the dugout after jogging about 40 feet. It was the ultimate cheat for the paying customers, a real half-a**ed non-effort.

This may be an "ability" restricted to the better hitters. Some guys just can't make even contact to send a ball that far when the game is on the line. I think it may have something to do with the getting-on-base fixation some players and front offices have. The days of Bright Billy's "Big Three" A's come to mind, when just one reasonably deep lazy fly would have won or tied a playoff game and perhaps won a series--and the hitters couldn't do it. I really think some guys are so into getting on base that they can't make themselves do anything else, even when it would have a positive outcome.

[axman]

I think there are some players who are much more comfortable in sac fly situations than others. I remember Darrin Fletcher talking about loving those situations. Something about being able to hit a lazy fly out anytime you need one, unfortunately that's not very often. By Votto not expanding the zone he's giving his teammates better pitches to hit and showing his teammates that he's a team player. I understand the theory of expanding the zone a bit in certain situations but you can't swing at pitches that are way out of the zone that you can't do much with anyhow.

[Don Quixote]

I think there are some players who are much more comfortable in sac fly situations than others. I remember Darrin Fletcher talking about loving those situations. Something about being able to hit a lazy fly out anytime you need one, unfortunately that's not very often. By Votto not expanding the zone he's giving his teammates better pitches to hit and showing his teammates that he's a team player. I understand the theory of expanding the zone a bit in certain situations but you can't swing at pitches that are way out of the zone that you can't do much with anyhow.

Actually, by not expanding his strike zone, Votto is not being a team player. Instead of saying, "I'll do what's necessary for the good of the team", he's in effect saying, "Sorry, I'm the star doing my thing, you guys do the heavy lifting." I don't think he's consciously saying or doing this, but that's the effect.

[axman]

I can assure you this is not what the team thinks. Swinging at boarderline pitches is one thing, chasing pitches way outside the zone is stupid and selfish. I'm sure you've played with this type of player and trust me they are never viewed as team players.

[Don Quixote]

I can assure you this is not what the team thinks. Swinging at boarderline pitches is one thing, chasing pitches way outside the zone is stupid and selfish. I'm sure you've played with this type of player and trust me they are never viewed as team players.

We're not talking about chasing pitches way outside the zone, at least where Votto is concerned. We're talking about pitches that are reasonably close and very "drivable", perhaps not for a home run but enough for a moderately deep fly ball. No one is asking him to turn into Vlad Guerrero, but there are many, many times when he takes pitches that he could hit for a lazy fly that would get the run home. Sometimes a walk does little or no good (my frequent argument with the "OBA is everything" folks).

[Hammer]

calling Votto selfish is ridiculous. He is playing the game the way he knows how to. he is not taking pitches because he worries about his stats. some people are comfortable playing the way the have all their lives and changing it isnt easy and judging by the views in this thread, there is a large division over whether what his approach is optimal or not.

[Don Quixote]

calling Votto selfish is ridiculous. He is playing the game the way he knows how to. he is not taking pitches because he worries about his stats. some people are comfortable playing the way the have all their lives and changing it isnt easy and judging by the views in this thread, there is a large division over whether what his approach is optimal or not.

He has a great approach--for 95% of the time. However, there does come a time when a walk doesn't do the job. When you're a #3 hitter, you're expected to drive in runs when there's a runner on third with less than two outs, not just wangle a walk.

As I tell people who complain about Votto, "He's the best darned #2 hitter in baseball. The problem is that he hits third."

[Hammer]

He has a great approach--for 95% of the time. However, there does come a time when a walk doesn't do the job. When you're a #3 hitter, you're expected to drive in runs when there's a runner on third with less than two outs, not just wangle a walk.

As I tell people who complain about Votto, "He's the best darned #2 hitter in baseball. The problem is that he hits third."

if thats the case then blame dusty since he used a two hitter in the three hole.

i dont believe votto is a two hitter. i believe his approach is whats best for cincy and it would serve phillips cozart and a few others well to adopt the same approach.

[DJBeasties]

Indeed. Look at the last three years and tell me there's been a more consistent OF in the NL. There are better, but not more consistent.

Imagine what he could have done if Dusty hadn't played the "I don't want to put my two good left-handed hitters together" card and batted Bruce 5th so often.

Yeah I think Bruce is great. I just think he will be overvalued now as he's everyone's shining example of consistency. Power repeated, skills the same, had more ABs. So he's good but I just think he's going to be the guy everyone is hard after and will tear any profit to pieces. Mid-to Late 1st round pick now.

[DMT]

Yeah I think Bruce is great. I just think he will be overvalued now as he's everyone's shining example of consistency. Power repeated, skills the same, had more ABs. So he's good but I just think he's going to be the guy everyone is hard after and will tear any profit to pieces. Mid-to Late 1st round pick now.

Right, but you shouldn't be looking for or expecting profit with your studs. The 'profit' is the higher likelihood that you're getting what you pay for.