Overvalued in 2014

[Erik]

After doing some serp mocks and auctions, who have you guys seen that you feel is overvalued? I am nominating first player this year since I won my local league so i'd like to throw a guy out whose perceived value may much higher than actual value.


Jay Bruce? Maybe Mark Trumbo?



What do you guys think?

If anything, Bruce is underrated given how consistent he is and how inconsistent power guys have gotten.

[Don Quixote]

If anything, Bruce is underrated given how consistent he is and how inconsistent power guys have gotten.

Indeed. Look at the last three years and tell me there's been a more consistent OF in the NL. There are better, but not more consistent.

Imagine what he could have done if Dusty hadn't played the "I don't want to put my two good left-handed hitters together" card and batted Bruce 5th so often.

[Mithrandir]

I called out Verlander with the first call out last year and he went for $51. My league will pay top dollar for every stud called out no matter when they are called out.

[Pauly]

After doing some serp mocks and auctions, who have you guys seen that you feel is overvalued? I am nominating first player this year since I won my local league so i'd like to throw a guy out whose perceived value may much higher than actual value.


Jay Bruce? Maybe Mark Trumbo?



What do you guys think?

Puig all the way.

[Don Quixote]

Given that Machado is coming off serious knee surgery, I'm not sure he'll be overvalued.

I'd add Josh Donaldson (also a 3B), who'll be a fashionable "sleeper" or "unknown" pick with almost every "expert".

[Pauly]

...to the championship!

I got him as $10 keeper in an NL only so I pray you are 100% correct. That said, he is strongly overvalued as a top 10-15 pick imo

[Don Quixote]

...to the championship!

I'll settle for his bringing my team up to respectability in 12TO.

[chancellor]

Danny Salazar
Michael Wacha

Especially Salazar with the Shandlobots going wild on him.

[madducks]

Jose Fernandez
Billy Hamilton
Brian McCann

[Don Quixote]

I was in an AL-Only league that had two Yankees fans. One of the long-timers told me, "Throw out the name of the newest shiny Yankee toy and see what happens." It was hilarious--to everyone else. Based on that, I'll add--

Brian McCann
Jacoby Ellsbury
Masahiro Tanaka

I'm sure it applies to other teams' new players, too. In my old NL-Only league, I'd always throw out the latest new Red, just to watch the drama. Position players only, because Jim Bowden didn't believe in pitching.

[Hornsby]

Are you sure that's the right play? In my league I've found that the first player that gets tossed actually goes for less than he should. It's as if people are a little gun shy to pick up the very first player. Obviously every league is a little different.

Shhhhhhh....

[Erik]

Given that he is a new, shiny Yankee and we are in NJ, and that our pitching pool will be deep, I suspect Tanaka is going to go for way more than I will be willing to pay. He could be worth it, we just don't know at this point, but I'm quite sure my comfort level will be exceeded during the bidding.

[Hornsby]

Given that he is a new, shiny Yankee and we are in NJ, and that our pitching pool will be deep, I suspect Tanaka is going to go for way more than I will be willing to pay. He could be worth it, we just don't know at this point, but I'm quite sure my comfort level will be exceeded during the bidding.

Agreed...who knows what pitching in NY does to the psyche of certain players? Not to mention what a crappy bandbox of a park it is to pitch in just speaking generally. Frankly, I think that he was poorly represented, he could have made more money by going to a place with lower taxes, and played in a better ballpark besides. It'll be interesting to see what happens once the 1st few pop flys go out of the yard against him...

Chris Davis is going to be overvalued IMO...he K's far too much to support his stats last season, although he's still going to be a 30+ HR guy.

Joey Votto is another guy...one of the greatest pure hitters on the planet, but sometimes you HAVE to swing the bat to help your team more.

[Moonlight J]

Agreed...who knows what pitching in NY does to the psyche of certain players? Not to mention what a crappy bandbox of a park it is to pitch in just speaking generally. Frankly, I think that he was poorly represented, he could have made more money by going to a place with lower taxes, and played in a better ballpark besides. It'll be interesting to see what happens once the 1st few pop flys go out of the yard against him...

Chris Davis is going to be overvalued IMO...he K's far too much to support his stats last season, although he's still going to be a 30+ HR guy.

Joey Votto is another guy...one of the greatest pure hitters on the planet, but sometimes you HAVE to swing the bat to help your team more.

This is bad logic

Votto saw 42.3% of pitches in the strike zone when he came to bat with RISP; that was in the bottom 15th percentile in the league. Only Dan Uggla of all people chased fewer pitches out of the zone in RISP situations.

Let's say Choo got on 2nd, and Cozart struck out or grounded out and didn't advance the runner. Votto comes up with a run expectancy of 0.72. If he expands his zone and gets an out, run expectancy drops to .348. If he simply gets on base, , run expectancy goes to 0.963.

It's not Votto's fault that Dusty wasted the 2 hole all season long putting their worst hitters there.

[Hornsby]

This is bad logic

Votto saw 42.3% of pitches in the strike zone when he came to bat with RISP; that was in the bottom 15th percentile in the league. Only Dan Uggla of all people chased fewer pitches out of the zone in RISP situations.

Let's say Choo got on 2nd, and Cozart struck out or grounded out and didn't advance the runner. Votto comes up with a run expectancy of 0.72. If he expands his zone and gets an out, run expectancy drops to .348. If he simply gets on base, , run expectancy goes to 0.963.

It's not Votto's fault that Dusty wasted the 2 hole all season long putting their worst hitters there.

Can't agree...I recall the 2004 season where Adam Dunn didn't have one single sac fly FOR THE ENTIRE SEASON! Sometimes you just have to swing the bat... #oldschool #getoffmylawn

Here's an interesting article regarding that record setting season...

http://valueoverreplacementgrit.com/2012/02/10/adam-dunn-does-not-like-sacrificing-flies/