Overvalued in 2014

[DJBeasties]

After doing some serp mocks and auctions, who have you guys seen that you feel is overvalued? I am nominating first player this year since I won my local league so i'd like to throw a guy out whose perceived value may much higher than actual value.


Jay Bruce? Maybe Mark Trumbo?



What do you guys think?

[DMT]

Not really overvalued, but I plan on nominating Kershaw with the first toss; he'll likely fetch a record price ($40 is the current record for a pitcher), and I never spend a lot on pitching.

[Hammer]

I value Bruce high as consistent power is in shortly supply.

Hanley, Harper and Puig seem high to me.

[revo]

I value Bruce high as consistent power is in shortly supply.

Hanley, Harper and Puig seem high to me.

Agree 100%.

Hanley: for two years, he was a .250 hitter and seemingly on the downside. Then he gets traded to LA, comes back from injury and has a great 80 games, and he's a top 10 pick? I'd rather have Desmond or Segura over him.

Harper: the talent and upside are there, but you gotta do something first before being considered a Top 10 pick. Sometimes fantasy players go ga-ga over high upside players to a point where they MUST have the dream season hoped for just to hit the cost paid.

Puig: the guy was phenomenal, but he has one season of American professional ball and he had a big dropoff in the 2nd half.

[BuckyBuckner]

Are you sure that's the right play? In my league I've found that the first player that gets tossed actually goes for less than he should. It's as if people are a little gun shy to pick up the very first player. Obviously every league is a little different.

[DMT]

Are you sure that's the right play? In my league I've found that the first player that gets tossed actually goes for less than he should. It's as if people are a little gun shy to pick up the very first player. Obviously every league is a little different.

This has only happened one time in my auction league.

[Hammer]

Are you sure that's the right play? In my league I've found that the first player that gets tossed actually goes for less than he should. It's as if people are a little gun shy to pick up the very first player. Obviously every league is a little different.

Happens infrequently in my NL auction but pretty frequently in RJEL.

[Weapon1]

Are you sure that's the right play? In my league I've found that the first player that gets tossed actually goes for less than he should. It's as if people are a little gun shy to pick up the very first player. Obviously every league is a little different.

If I'm nominating first it is going to be a second tier player who I think I can nab for a few bucks less than he is worth. My experience is that if the first nomination isn't a stud, then the bids aren't as drastic

[willthethrill]

Are you sure that's the right play? In my league I've found that the first player that gets tossed actually goes for less than he should. It's as if people are a little gun shy to pick up the very first player. Obviously every league is a little different.

I agree, but only with the first or second nominee. After that, purse strings open up.

[Pogues]

I don't have that warm and fuzzy feeling about Chris Davis...I feel as if he is overvalued. But that might just be me.

[DJBeasties]

Guys in this league are ready to roll on that first pick. I'm definitely going with an over-inflated balloon. Bruce is a good choice I think because he is the newly-minted rock-solid guy. Whether he is again, who knows but I feel like everyone is going to want him and he will go for too much. Segura I think will be overvalued because of the hot first half. i think they will both be good just cost a bit too much.

My other approach, as to what Bucky is saying is that I may be able to steal someone because of the reluctance to go overboard. I think this is possible but you would need to drop a snore bomb on the room, take some ribbing for nominating the likes of Brett Gardner and sneak one through. You could I think but I think I would need to be even more strategic on who I want to sneak through and even then it takes just one guy to blow up my spot. I like the idea of trying this but it would most likely need to be like Corey Hart or JJ Hardy.

I kind of want to lead out with Chase Utley and see what the dead cat bounce fetches to lead a draft.

[Moonlight J]

Danny Salazar
Michael Wacha

[Grinch]

It will be interesting to see what happens in my AL only draft, we have had the 'gotta-have-him' bidding war with the first player, we have also had the 'gun-shy, not sure how much the inflation rate is' value pick. Given that this league is in it's 15th year and for the first time we had 2 owners drop, the draft should have a new flavor. My brother won the league so he gets first throw----kinda figure he'll toss Miggy.

[axman]

My home league used to undervalue the first guy out but not any more. First player is tough because the market hasn't really set itself yet.

I like the Kershaw idea if your not interested in buying him.

Guys I think won't earn there draft day cost:
AL
Sabathia: more than one owner will count on a bounce back. I think he goes for top second tier pitching pricing.
Tanaka: I think in home leagues he'll go for an ace price.
Lawrie: I'm sure someday he'll earn his draft day price but still waiting.

NL
Tulo: I know if healthy he'd earn his price but I'm not paying for 550AB's. Has more value in a shallow league where he can be replaced with some value.
I'd like to throw Utley, Phillips, Hill and Murphy in there but I'm not sure where a solid player will come from @ 2B in the NL.

[Gregg]

Are you sure that's the right play? In my league I've found that the first player that gets tossed actually goes for less than he should. It's as if people are a little gun shy to pick up the very first player. Obviously every league is a little different.

I do think you can save a buck or two on the first pick. I have posted that here a few times over the years.

I think it would be fun this year to throw out Harvey with the first toss.