Inflation in Keeper Leagues (Position Scarcity and Category Needs)

[DJBeasties]

I (think) I understand how to calucate inflation well enough to get the idea of player value but I guess where I am struggling is understanding how to apply it to positions or categories.

I am doing a draft (Todd Zola is in it so I lose any RJ advantage) this weekend and it's 14-teams and 12 keepers.

I don't understand really how to adjust on things like "all the power is gone but Adam Dunn is available so should I factor that in" (no idea why I just quoted that)

Basically do I need to apply inflation across the board or should it also be considered for position scarcity or category scarcity?

Gracias in advance

DJ

[Controller Jacobs]

With position scarcity, you can find the replacement value at each position. If you expect thirty 3B to be picked up, go see what the $ value is on the 30th 3B. If it's -$5, add $6 to all your 3B. If it's +$5, subtract $4 from all your 3B.

Stats are a little more difficult to adjust for. One issue is the correlation with position. If you need SBs, a catcher who is likely to net you 10 SB should get a bump in value, but an MI might get a penalty for that projection. Personally, I think stats are generally better handled somewhat manually. If you're working in Excel, create a column that has your personal adj to salary for stats, then apply it based on filters. During the draft, if you find it's no longer an issue for you, you can zero-out the bonus, or keep the bonus and try to acquire more of the rare stat to trade later. I like to use columns like that to adjust for all sorts of things - age, position, recent news, personal preference, etc.

[schlesinj]

I think it is very league specific. Frankly, my league has plenty of inflation, but it is not the same across the full available players. Typically, offense has a higher inflation vs pitchers. Although, top starters still go very high and closers too (4x4), so that leave mid level and cheaper guys going a little cheaper.

Back you your question, I use my calculation as a guide and try to adjust on the fly at the draft. If I know power is short I am willing to go the extra buck to get him.

[DJBeasties]

Thanks fellas!!

[mgwiz22]

Take into account both supply and DEMAND. If a lot of catchers are kept fewer are needed. Don't panic.

[Lucky]

Again, guys, let's not confuse league tendencies with inflation. Inflation is a number which can be calculated using a formula. There's no such thing as inflation for specific players, or inflation for certain positions, like catcher or third base.

Once you have calculated the inflation factor, then you can proceed with making adjustments based upon the bidding tendencies of the guys in your league.

You can divide inflation between hitting and pitching, but this isn't the thread to go into all that.

[bryanbutler]

i disagree, lucky. there can be inflation for certain positions. depends on who is being kept.

[GladHeAteHer]

i disagree, lucky. there can be inflation for certain positions. depends on who is being kept.

That is not true. When factoring in inflation each HR is worth the same dollar value. A HR hit by catcher is no more valuable than one hit by an OF. The value of a stat line of .280/90/24/100/15 is the same no matter what position it is attained at.

You can adjust your dollar values according to positional scarcity, but that doesnt factor into inflation.

[Lucky]

That is not true. When factoring in inflation each HR is worth the same dollar value. A HR hit by catcher is no more valuable than one hit by an OF. The value of a stat line of .280/90/24/100/15 is the same no matter what position it is attained at.

You can adjust your dollar values according to positional scarcity, but that doesnt factor into inflation.

Exactly.

Auction inflation, to be such a critically important issue, is surrounded by much confusion and bad information. GladHeAteHer hits it on the head, and also has some of the best avatars around.

[DJBeasties]

Thank you all again. I understand what you are saying Lucky. Overthinking, overanalyzing.

[DJBeasties]

Has anyone ever seen this before? $1,398 to spend on $483 worth of talent? So that's an 89% inflation? Something seems wrong. I added up the cost of the players, the value of the players and subtracted each from the total league $$$

14 teams x $260 = $3,640

Total cost of keepers = $2,242
Total value of keepers = $3,157

Dollars remaining = $1398
Value remaining = $483

In fact, I come out with $1398/$483 = 2.89

I'm not sure this makes sense. What am I missing?

[DJBeasties]

I think you just did it backwards.

$483/$1398 = 34.5% inflation

That's pretty normal for a keeper league.

HA! Ok, good thanks, ElD.

[DJBeasties]

Allright, hold on. I appreciate your help ElD, but something doesn't make sense. I am using BigJon's instruction on his site Advanced Fantasy Baseball.

In a standard 12-team auction league, with 23-man rosters and a $260 salary cap, there is a total of $3,120 to spend on 276 players. If the owners in our keeper league decide to freeze players with salaries totaling $1,000 but with a projected value of $1,500, then the players remaining in the player pool have a projected value of $1.620. However, the owners now have an extra $500, giving our owners $2,120 to spend on players worth just $1,620. We calculate our inflation by taking the money left to spend divided by the value of the remaining talent or $2,120/$1,620. This results in an inflation of 1.3086, or 31 percent. So if Pujols is valued at $51 and inflation is 31 percent, Pujols has an inflated value of 66.7386 or $67. So if Pujols is the first player called in the above scenario anything less than $67 spent on him should be considered a bargain.

The way Jon describes it is to divide available money by value remaining which would still give me that 2.89 figure.

I need the confused emoticon.

[Judge Jude]

"Suck it up, grab a crappy $1 catcher and get your stats from different positions."

That would work better in leagues where a $1 C is worth $1, as opposed to leagues like a 14-team NL, where a $1 C may be worth -$5. So you overpaid by $6. If you can make it up elsewhere, ok...

[Lucky]

Has anyone ever seen this before? $1,398 to spend on $483 worth of talent? So that's an 89% inflation? Something seems wrong. I added up the cost of the players, the value of the players and subtracted each from the total league $$$

14 teams x $260 = $3,640

Total cost of keepers = $2,242
Total value of keepers = $3,157

Dollars remaining = $1398
Value remaining = $483

In fact, I come out with $1398/$483 = 2.89

I'm not sure this makes sense. What am I missing?

Almost impossible to believe these numbers. What are your league parameters? Where did you come up with your value of keepers? If you assign the proper value to each of the 322 players who will be rostered, does the total equal exactly $3640? If not, you have a problem, most likely with player evaluation.