Johnny Cueto: Bounceback or Avoid?

[Trader Mac]

I have been looking at picking up Johnny Cueto in my league on a long-term contract. His stats have looked decent, but staying healthy has been an issue. Would you guys sign him to a long-term, guaranteed contract (hopefully, a cheap one) or avoid him due to his persistent health issues?

[DMT]

He's had one healthy year in his last four. No way would I pick up Cueto on a guaranteed contract that runs beyond this year (and maybe not even this year, considering the 3 DL stints he did for his shoulder).

Agreed, no way.

[chancellor]

Agreed. And since DMT, elD, and I agree on something, you should make sure a red horse isn't running through your yard.

[Judge Jude]

it's always about the price
how much is your potential sunk cost?

[The Dane]

Some also depends on your league parameters. Cueto is -to a lesser extent- what pitchers like Randy Johnson and John Smoltz became later in their careers: guys who get injured but pitch great when healthy. If I'm in a league with a robust bench and I can replace Cueto for when he inevitably hits the DL, then he has some untapped value. If he is tougher (or impossible) to replace, then maybe no price is worth rostering him.

[Don Quixote]

it's always about the price
how much is your potential sunk cost?

True, but it would have to be a pretty low price and a contract not going beyond 2015.

One piece of good news is that he has a new manager, and it's not Dusty Baker. The possible bad news is that his new manager is his old pitching coach, who may not have been arguing on behalf of his pitcher's health quite hard enough in recent years.

Another piece of good news is that he'll be only 28 this year.

The bad news is that he's kind of fallen down the food chain in terms of the rotation. He used to be #1, then Latos came long, and took that early last year, then Bailey passed him during the year. Now Cingrani may pass him.

Speaking of prices, here's his real-life price, if that's a consideration--He's under contract for $10 million this yer, with a club option for 2015 at the same price with a $800,000 option. If he stays healthy this year (big if), look for the club to pick up the option without thinking too hard.

I'm not a big fan of guys who spend so much time in the body shop, but if the price is right, if the contract is short enough, if you don't have to give up much, and if you feel lucky, go for it. Just be objective in your analysis before pulling the trigger.

[The Dane]

I'm not a big fan of guys who spend so much time in the body shop, but if the price is right, if the contract is short enough, if you don't have to give up much, and if you feel lucky, go for it. Just be objective in your analysis before pulling the trigger.

Well said. But people often target injuries for value at draft and I think Cueto is perfect for that. He's young, he plays great when he's active, and he plays a position that is easy to replace on the roster, even if it's only with some MR. For the right price, in the right context, I'd grab Cueto.

[Trader Mac]

We have a 85 million dollar salary cap for a 40-man roster. I went ahead and put in a bid of 4 years for 1 million per year which is real low for this league. I doubt it will stand and I doubt I will go much higher beyond that.

[mjl]

If you have a 40 man roster I'd pay more than that. I agree with the sentiment that injured pitchers are disappointing but not necessarily all that disruptive. If you get 100 innings a year out of him at a 3.40 ERA, which has to be one of the worse possible outcomes, and you pair that with 50 innings of Joe Middle Reliever at a 3.40 ERA, that's a respectable use of a roster spot. I think worst case he's worth about $4m/year, which is around $10 in a normal league.

[Trader Mac]

Well, that was faster than I thought. I have already been outbid (3 years/$2 mil per year). The deadline is the 10th so I am not in huge hurry whether to decide to increase my bid or not. I am in full-rebuilding mode so I have already throw in the towel for this year. That is why I want to bid a few years on Cueto so that I can actually utilize him when my team is actually competing.

[Gregg]

Well, that was faster than I thought. I have already been outbid (3 years/$2 mil per year). The deadline is the 10th so I am not in huge hurry whether to decide to increase my bid or not. I am in full-rebuilding mode so I have already throw in the towel for this year. That is why I want to bid a few years on Cueto so that I can actually utilize him when my team is actually competing.

I have few questions:

What is the Maximum length of contract you can bid. What is the penalty for for dropping someone in the middle of their contract. To determine high bidder is it length of contract times 2dollars? I assume 3 years at $2 wins over 1 year at $4? 1 year at $6 equals 3 years at $2 (so first in wins)? In the above case if you went the extra year 4/$2 I assume you take the lead?

[Gregg]

I'd just go as high as you're comfortable for one year only. He's worth a decent investment on a short-term basis but less worthy of a long-term investment, even a meager one, imo.

Or if there is no penalty for dropping them go 10 years at a buck a year. You lose $1 off your cap and drop him when he is no longer useful. No one will go $10 on Cueto. I am guessing that that particicular loop hole is closed?

[Erik]

I sold him to a dumper last year. Got tired of the injuries. But pitching is pretty deep in this league.

[kldub4life]

Some also depends on your league parameters. Cueto is -to a lesser extent- what pitchers like Randy Johnson and John Smoltz became later in their careers: guys who get injured but pitch great when healthy. If I'm in a league with a robust bench and I can replace Cueto for when he inevitably hits the DL, then he has some untapped val
ue. If he is tougher (or impossible) to replace, then maybe no price is worth rostering him.

I agree, we need to keep in mind his skill and performance on the mound have remained near elite. If the investment is low I really like the potential reward.

Also keep in mind the seeming increase in depth at pitcher leads to a higher (less risky) replacement level.

[Trader Mac]

The max you can sign a player for is 6 years. To give you an example of a huge contract in our league, an owner just signed Kershaw to a 6 year/$19.2 million per year contract with a no-trade clause (which gave a slight discount). If I do bid on Cueto, then I would go over 1 year as this year is nothing for me. An owner is responsible for the whole contract. The rule used to be you could dump him and be responsible for half of it, but that rule was changed recently. You can save money from the previous year and use it to buy out contracts for the following years. Right now, I have Gavin Floyd for $8.2 million next year (I inherited this contract.) So, now I am trying to save that money this year so I can apply it to buyout his contract next year. Hope this makes sense.