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2K14: BJ Upton

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  • #1

    2K14: BJ Upton

    Bossman Junior royally shit the bed in 2013, this after many fantasy players thought that the move to Atlanta and uniting with his brother would perhaps lead to a career year. Instead, what they got was a .184 BA with a .268 OBP and very little of what he was drafted for, namely power + speed. In the last 100 years, there have only been 8 cases of a player hitting under .185 with more than 300 ABs, and remarkably, two of those were from the 2013 Braves!

    So what do we expect from Upton in 2014 -- was last season an aberration? Should we treat it like that episode of 'Dallas' when Bobby Ewing magically re-appeared after being killed off, with the entire season explained away as a dream?

    His K% jumped by 30%, going from a typical 25% to nearly 34% of his ABs. His XBH% also plunged to just 5.2%.

    The Braves are writing Upton's 2013 off, but should fantasy players write off his 2014 also? Will a return to the .240ish BA form be too much for Upton?
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  • #2
    Bat speed is vanishing, and the holes in his swing are growing larger http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-u...aking-contact/

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    • #3
      With that power and speed, he could still be worth a late draft pick or lowball buy. However, if I got him, I'd be prepared to ditch him at Warp 7 if the problems of last year persist.
      Only the madman is absolutely sure. -Robert Anton Wilson, novelist (1932-2007)

      Faith is believing what you know ain't so. -Mark Twain, author and humorist (1835-1910)

      A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices.
      -- William James

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      • #4
        But is his bat speed really declining or is his constant swing tinkering and the waggle the fangraghs.com articles speaks on the problem? I'd bet on a bounce back.

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        • #5
          Interesting perspective from BaseballHQ's weekley freebie

          Baseball HQ
          http://www.baseballhq.com/special-report-2014s-extreme-rebound-candidates


          BJ Upton (OF, ATL)
          Key metrics: hit rate, line drive rate, contact rate
          The upside: Absolutely everything went wrong for Upton last year. We don't totally know why: there was a nagging groin issue early in the year that may have thrown him into some bad habits at the plate, and once he went into a tailspin he couldn't get out of it. What we do know is that Upton was a remarkably consistent player from 2010-12: he was automatic for a .240 BA with 20+ HR and 35 SB. Comparing his component skills from those three years with 2013, a few things stand out:

          His hit rate (h%) on balls in play fell from a norm of 31% to 27%.
          Despite that, his line-drive rate (LD%) held steady. Most base hits come on line drives, so this underscores the fact that Upton was getting unlucky: Balls that normally turned into base hits for him from 2010-12 turned into outs in 2013.
          Upton's strikeout rate did jump to an alarming level in 2013. But that problem was a lot worse in the 2nd half, when the snowball had already picked up steam and his playing time became erratic.

          Without any lingering injury concern, still at a peak age, and with a well-established prior track record, it's entirely reasonable to give Upton a complete mulligan on 2013. And since the ADP says he is going more than 150 picks later than last year, you don't need anything near a full recovery in order to turn a tidy profit on this investment.
          Comparing a Fantasy Baseball Draft to an Auction is like comparing Checkers to Chess!!!

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          • #6
            " it's entirely reasonable to give Upton a complete mulligan on 2013."

            Why? Because they want to give him a mulligan?
            Only the madman is absolutely sure. -Robert Anton Wilson, novelist (1932-2007)

            Faith is believing what you know ain't so. -Mark Twain, author and humorist (1835-1910)

            A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices.
            -- William James

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Don Quixote View Post
              " it's entirely reasonable to give Upton a complete mulligan on 2013."

              Why? Because they want to give him a mulligan?
              LOL, I also love the way they dismiss the K rate...

              "Upton's strikeout rate did jump to an alarming level in 2013. But that problem was a lot worse in the 2nd half, when the snowball had already picked up steam and his playing time became erratic."
              AHA! He struck out a lot in the 2nd half because he was so crappy in the 1st half that the team couldn't play him...and when it did, he struck out!

              Me like logic! it gud!

              And, it's also not true...using the All-Star break as the arbitrary divider between halves of the season, Upton struck out 102 times in the first half, 49 in the 2nd half. 277 AB's in the 1st, 114 in the 2nd...so the rate was higher, but not by much.
              "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
              - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

              "Your shitty future continues to offend me."
              -Warren Ellis

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Hornsby View Post
                LOL, I also love the way they dismiss the K rate...



                AHA! He struck out a lot in the 2nd half because he was so crappy in the 1st half that the team couldn't play him...and when it did, he struck out!

                Me like logic! it gud!

                And, it's also not true...using the All-Star break as the arbitrary divider between halves of the season, Upton struck out 102 times in the first half, 49 in the 2nd half. 277 AB's in the 1st, 114 in the 2nd...so the rate was higher, but not by much.
                When a player is a high draft pick, a high-priced free agent, or a "name player", never confuse the issue by bringing up the facts.
                Only the madman is absolutely sure. -Robert Anton Wilson, novelist (1932-2007)

                Faith is believing what you know ain't so. -Mark Twain, author and humorist (1835-1910)

                A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices.
                -- William James

                Comment

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