2K24: Atlanta Braves

[revo]

Charlie Culberson was recalled on May 19th and DFA'd yesterday. In that span of 30 days, he did not get into A SINGLE GAME.

[Sharky]

Charlie Culberson was recalled on May 19th and DFA'd yesterday. In that span of 30 days, he did not get into A SINGLE GAME.

Best FAAB pickup ever!!

(Fortunately not by me)

[rhd]

Acuna hit his 20th HR tonite (along w his 37th SB!). This was the Braves 81st game of the season so exactly the halfway point. So, he's on a pace to have a 40-40 season, something that's been done by only 4 players before (Canseco, A-Rod, Bonds, Soriano). Acuna is running away w the NL MVP at this point. His 4.4 fWAR (not counting tonite) leads all MLB hitters (Ohtani's combined hitting/pitching WAR is higher, but that's a separate post), he leads MLB in Runs and is 2nd in SB, TB, BA, SLG and OPS. I had the 1st pick in my NL straight-draft league and one guy kind of chided me for taking Acuna instead of Turner. Turner currently is hitting .249, has less than half of Acuna's SB and his fWAR entering today was 1.5.

[revo]

Acuna hit his 20th HR tonite (along w his 37th SB!). This was the Braves 81st game of the season so exactly the halfway point. So, he's on a pace to have a 40-40 season, something that's been done by only 4 players before (Canseco, A-Rod, Bonds, Soriano). Acuna is running away w the NL MVP at this point. His 4.4 fWAR (not counting tonite) leads all MLB hitters (Ohtani's combined hitting/pitching WAR is higher, but that's a separate post), he leads MLB in Runs and is 2nd in SB, TB, BA, SLG and OPS. I had the 1st pick in my NL straight-draft league and one guy kind of chided me for taking Acuna instead of Turner. Turner currently is hitting .249, has less than half of Acuna's SB and his fWAR entering today was 1.5.

He's having a season reminiscent of Eric Davis's heyday of 1987, when he hit 37 HRs to go with 50 SBs (or his 1986, when he hit 27 HRs and had 80 SBs).

[harmon]

He's having a season reminiscent of Eric Davis's heyday of 1987, when he hit 37 HRs to go with 50 SBs (or his 1986, when he hit 27 HRs and had 80 SBs).

He's actually having a season reminiscent of nobody ever.

[rhd]

Acuna just stole his 50th base. He is on a pace for 79 SBs. Noone has had that many SBs since Rickey Henderson's 93 in '88.

[rhd]

With the great seasons that Acuna and Ohtani are having, Matt Olson's season might be getting a little lost. He hit his 39th HR today, which is just 1 behind Ohtani for the MLB lead. He's on a pace to hit 55 HR which would shatter the club record of 51 currently held by Andruw Jones. He leads MLB in RBI w 97.

[rhd]

With the great seasons that Acuna and Ohtani are having, Matt Olson's season might be getting a little lost. He hit his 39th HR today, which is just 1 behind Ohtani for the MLB lead. He's on a pace to hit 55 HR which would shatter the club record of 51 currently held by Andruw Jones. He leads MLB in RBI w 97.

Olson hit HR (#43 today, w which kinda projects to 60 for the season - a little over 59.5.

[Sharky]

Olson hit HR (#43 today, w which kinda projects to 60 for the season - a little over 59.5.

He has been huge for my team this year. I bet there will be many difficult keeper decisions with Olson for next year. Exciting for him though.

[Ken]

He has been huge for my team this year. I bet there will be many difficult keeper decisions with Olson for next year. Exciting for him though.

Why difficult decisions? Players who dramatically improve are typically rostered at prices below where they'd go next year. Sure there may be one offs but in general Olson will be a keep. The difficult decisions come on players who are more flat in production vs expectations.

[madducks]

Olson, Riley and Acuna have played in every game this season. Albies hadn't missed a game either until he was placed on the IL yesterday.

[Sharky]

Why difficult decisions? Players who dramatically improve are typically rostered at prices below where they'd go next year. Sure there may be one offs but in general Olson will be a keep. The difficult decisions come on players who are more flat in production vs expectations.

I don’t think Olson sold at a significant discount in competitive keeper leagues. His production has been big this year; even if this is a new level for HR, the RBI will depend on the success (and health) of his teammates. Betting on a full repeat at this level seems ambitious.

[Ken]

I don’t think Olson sold at a significant discount in competitive keeper leagues. His production has been big this year; even if this is a new level for HR, the RBI will depend on the success (and health) of his teammates. Betting on a full repeat at this level seems ambitious.

Not following you.

Coming into the year you were buying based on the expectations that he should have held. That was $x, it depends on your league categories and team count, etc. But he's now worth $x + some additional overhead because he has exceeded expectations. In the general sense he will be kept, just like in general all players who have outperformed previous expectations will be kept.

Now if you overpaid, then maybe you have a dilemma, but we shouldn't focus on edge cases like that. In general, Olson won't be a hard decision, for most people he'll be an easy keep. It's like saying lots of people will have trouble deciding whether to keep Acuna because you rostered him at $100 this year. It's not really the case, Acuna will be kept in the vast majority of keeper leagues because he's outperformed expectations.

I just pulled up Razzball 15 mixed 5x5 so we can use real numbers. Not because Razz is the best but because it's the quickest to pull up and these things tend to be at least relatively close across the market. Preseason they valued Olson at $23 in a 15 team league - for a reference point they had Judge worth ~$40. So ~50% of max player value, ~3rd round type asset. To date he's been worth $50, 3rd overall. And projecting forward his projected value rest of season is $32, or end of the 1st round, 15th overall.

That isn't a hard decision. If you paid market price for Olson, you are easily keeping him.

[madducks]

The Braves now have 232 home runs in 120 games and are on pace to break the regular season record of 307 home runs held by the 2019 Twins.

[rhd]

Strider w another gem tonite for his MLB-leading 14th win. 7.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K. His ERA and estimators are not quite as impressive as last year, but the K rate and BB rate are similar. Oh yeah, he also leads MLB in Ks w 227. What a steal he was in the 4th round of the 2020 draft.