2K24: New York Mets

[revo]

Looks like the Mets made the right call in keeping Duda over Ike. Lucas Ducas hit his 20th HR last night. The Duda abides!

[onejayhawk]

Mets Starting Pitchers

I may be a bit overexposed in this area--Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard. These are the Steamer projections for 2015:

Wheeler 153 IP, 3.90 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 149 K, 2.34 K/BB
Harvey 173 IP, 3.13 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 185 K, 3.78 K/BB
Syndergaard - No meaningful 2015 stats

Wheeler takes a step back, Harvey challenges for Cy Young, Syndergaard gets a cup of joe. How realistic are those? Has the defense improved or declined?

J

[umjewman]

Syndergaard with no meaningful stats is accurate. Harvey, who knows? Coming back from TJ, he could be anything. I think Wheeler will take a step forward with his control this year and be really good. But that could just be my overly optimistic Mets homerism in play, not anything concrete.

[joncarlos]

I believe Steamer doesn't really try to predict playing time. I think Wheeler gets to 190 IP with K/9, WHIP, ERA similar to what you posted. I think Harvey is more in the 130s. I think Thor will be up for the 2nd half and maybe sooner.

[Zupe]

Has the defense improved or declined?

As of right now, the defense is probably worse than last year. The two main changes are:

1. Flores as the main SS as opposed to last year's Tejada/Flores. Flores is slow and has way below average range. In a small sample size last year, he was actually surprisingly good on the balls he did get to. If that continues, he'd be passable, but a Flores/Murphy up the middle combo is not going to be pretty.

2. Granderson likely moves to LF, with Cuddyer taking over in RF. Granderson's arm was an issue in RF, so this should help there, but Cuddyer is a below average defender at this point. Lagares is going to be very busy.

I think Syndergaard will see more than the 19 innings in the majors Steamer is projecting, though how much more remains to be seen.

[revo]

I agree with the above posters. The Mets rotation is loaded as of today - Harvey, Wheeler, deGrom, Colon, Niese, Gee already make 6, so there's nowhere for Syndergaard barring injury or a trade.

The Mets are dying to replace Flores due to his defensive shortcomings, and Murphy is a below-average defender at 2B, so the infield defense isn't great. Lagares, however, is the best defensive CFer in baseball, so there's that.

But this is an up-and-coming offense, and while it's tough to predict wins, the Mets should/could be a borderline 90-win club.

[onejayhawk]

Sometimes a lot on names means a lot of uncertainty. Injuries are near certain as the season moves on. Harvey is off an TJ surgery, Niese missed time in 2013. Colon is 41. Gee is on the block. deGrom is coming off his rookie year. It's hardly a stone wall. If Syndergaard is the 1st SP up, I would expect the call before June. The question is whether he will the one getting the call.

Put it this way, what are his chances of pulling a deGrom? What about 2016?

J

[mgwiz22]

I agree with the above posters. The Mets rotation is loaded as of today - Harvey, Wheeler, deGrom, Colon, Niese, Gee already make 6, so there's nowhere for Syndergaard barring injury or a trade.

The Mets are dying to replace Flores due to his defensive shortcomings, and Murphy is a below-average defender at 2B, so the infield defense isn't great. Lagares, however, is the best defensive CFer in baseball, so there's that.
But this is an up-and-coming offense, and while it's tough to predict wins, the Mets should/could be a borderline 90-win club.

I think calling this team a borderline 90 win club is wildly optimistic. Their offense seems weak and their pitching is full of guys who might be very good but might not be good.

[revo]

I think calling this team a borderline 90 win club is wildly optimistic. Their offense seems weak and their pitching is full of guys who might be very good but might not be good.

Could be. Obviously a few things need to go their way:
- Wright needs to rebound to at least a .290/20 HR guy
- d'Arnaud needs to be the batter he was in the second half
- Duda needs to stay a 30 HR force
- Granderson needs to get back to .250 with 25 HRs
- Cuddyer needs to stay healthy
- Harvey has to be the guy he was in 2013
- deGrom & Wheeler need to continue to improve or stay who they are
- the bullpen needs to take shape

A lot of ifs, but nothing really out of the realm of reality. 90 wins would only be an 11-game improvement, and the NL East didn't get any better this off-season.

[mgwiz22]

It is possible, but those are a lot of ifs. I have to stand by what I said.

[revo]

It is possible, but those are a lot of ifs. I have to stand by what I said.

90 wins is very optimistic. 85 should be doable.

[Judge Jude]

Some talk in NY about this being a perfect 6-man rotation team:

- Harvey off TJS
- Wheeler throws about 100 pitches in 5 IP even when good
- Colon is older than Gaylord Perry
- Niese always gets hurt
- deGrom in 2nd year, very good but how many IP?
- Gee is not bad

They still have Montero, Thor, and others close to ready.

[Sharky]

Some talk in NY about this being a perfect 6-man rotation team:

- Harvey off TJS
- Wheeler throws about 100 pitches in 5 IP even when good
- Colon is older than Gaylord Perry
- Niese always gets hurt
- deGrom in 2nd year, very good but how many IP?
- Gee is not bad

They still have Montero, Thor, and others close to ready.

It's an excellent rotation (top end talent, real depth, etc.). The offense, however, is lackluster at best. And the bullpen again remains a question mark. I love what Lagares brings to the table for defense (if the Mets actually let him play). Aside from that, not much to be excited about. At some point they will need to spend -- or trade prospects for major league talent.

For comparison, look how the Nationals did these past few years. They never really pushed it over the hump despite a tremendous rotation. And unlike the Mets, the Nats had Werth (big FA signing to signal commitment), Desmond, Harper, Zimmerman (sometimes), LaRoche. Can't see how my (once-)beloved Mets compare favorably.

[revo]

Some talk in NY about this being a perfect 6-man rotation team:

- Harvey off TJS
- Wheeler throws about 100 pitches in 5 IP even when good
- Colon is older than Gaylord Perry
- Niese always gets hurt
- deGrom in 2nd year, very good but how many IP?
- Gee is not bad

They still have Montero, Thor, and others close to ready.

That would be a waste of resources and a roster spot. They really need to move Gee and/or Niese for a SS and bullpen help.

The problem with the Met offense is that besides SS, all the other hitters are good enough to start but not/no longer stars, so who do you replace? And if any of them do get replaced, they'd have to be included in the deal because they're too good to sit on the bench.

[Sharky]

That would be a waste of resources and a roster spot. They really need to move Gee and/or Niese for a SS and bullpen help.

The problem with the Met offense is that besides SS, all the other hitters are good enough to start but not/no longer stars, so who do you replace? And if any of them do get replaced, they'd have to be included in the deal because they're too good to sit on the bench.

Clearly SS is the place to start. But RF (Grandy) would be next up. Don't love the Cuddyer signing either, but a usable placeholder if he is marginally healthier than in past.