2K24: Milwaukee Brewers

[Ken]

It would be hard to name the only NL pitcher currently with > 4 Wins and > 50 Ks.

If you guessed Brandon Woodruff, you are probably either a) a Brewers homer, or b) you have him on your fantasy team.

Woodruff been quite good in his last 3 starts, giving up 3 ER and 3 BB while striking out 22 in 16 IP.

[DMT]

It would be hard to name the only NL pitcher currently with > 4 Wins and > 50 Ks.

If you guessed Brandon Woodruff, you are probably either a) a Brewers homer, or b) you have him on your fantasy team.

Woodruff been quite good in his last 3 starts, giving up 3 ER and 3 BB while striking out 22 in 16 IP.

He has, but I hadn't been starting him because of his early struggles... Until this week. I also dropped him in my sim league instead of Christin Stewart because I'm a doofus.

[revo]

Keston Hiura gets the call. Probably spells doom for Travis Shaw.

[pitbull]

Keston Hiura gets the call. Probably spells doom for Travis Shaw.

Shaw has a contract under 5 mil for this season and then is arbitration eligible for next season. If Hiura holds his own then the Brewers will easily sit or trade Shaw. I do not own him in any of my league but would you start him thinking this could be like Soto or Acuna?

[Ken]

I do not own him in any of my league but would you start him thinking this could be like Soto or Acuna?

No, I think that's overrating him quite a bit. He's at least a few tiers lower as far as prospects go.

Soto and Acuna broke in at 19/20 which is what you see with superstar level talent (Trout/Griffey/ARod). Hiura looks like he'll be a good hitter but I wouldn't put him close to those levels.

[kldub4life]

Hiura's 60's hit/gp/rp tool grades are exceptional, he is also joining a solid lineup. Call me bullish. His health had been the question mark especially defensively but his bat could be elite.

[Sour Masher]

Hiura's 60's hit/gp/rp tool grades are exceptional, he is also joining a solid lineup. Call me bullish. His health had been the question mark especially defensively but his bat could be elite.

I agree. For fantasy purposes, Hiura is an exciting prospect. However, if the question is about whether to start him right away, I'd say no, unless you don't have any other viable options. Even the best hitters often take some time to get used to major league hitting. For every Soto and Acuna who come out swinging a hot stick, you have tons of guys, many of whom end up really good long term, that struggle right out of the gate.

[kldub4life]

I agree. For fantasy purposes, Hiura is an exciting prospect. However, if the question is about whether to start him right away, I'd say no, unless you don't have any other viable options. Even the best hitters often take some time to get used to major league hitting. For every Soto and Acuna who come out swinging a hot stick, you have tons of guys, many of whom end up really good long term, that struggle right out of the gate.

Case in point Vladdy

[Gregg]

Case in point Vladdy

I do not think 37 abs would qualify Vlad.

He has 6 hits with both his hrs in his last 14 abs.

[Ken]

I do not think 37 abs would qualify Vlad.

He has 6 hits with both his hrs in his last 14 abs.

His post was before those 2 HR.

[Gregg]

His post was before those 2 HR.

Yes, but the 37 abs were not. Those aren't enough to reach small sample size.

[Ken]

Yes, but the 37 abs were not. Those aren't enough to reach small sample size.

Using SSS in this context is a little circular of a reference. If the argument is that prospects tend to have a rough time when they are first called up (say, their first 30 ABs) and we cite an example, we can't tear down that example based on sample size since the first 30 ABs is the entire population of our hypothesis. If your point is that we can't draw too many conclusions from 1 player, then I agree, but I think kldub4life was likely onto something there we just need to add up a few different players to get a large enough sample. But it doesn't disqualify one particular player's data.

[Ken]

BTW, I grabbed the 8 rookies this year who had not played before 2019 and have at least 50 ABs (Alonso, Tatis, Martin, Jimenez, Chavis, C. Tucker, Reynolds, Vlad) and looked at their 1st 25 ABs vs all subsequent ABs. For simplicity, so that I dont have to look intra-game, I just looked at any game during which they started out with < 25 career ABs.

1st 25 ABs: .270/.341/.565
After 1st 25: .244/.322/.563

I don't see good evidence based on THIS years' rookies to wait to put them in your lineup. Granted, that's just 8 rookies and I would likely get better data by looking at all the rookies in 2018, but... ain't nobody got time for that!

Watch out for some selection bias too though. Kieboom would fall out of my sample (<50 ABs) because he was terrible in his first stint and didn't get a chance to meet my criteria, so this data may be skewed.

[madducks]

"Skewed Data" would be a good name for a band.

[Bernie Brewer]

Shaw has a contract under 5 mil for this season and then is arbitration eligible for next season. If Hiura holds his own then the Brewers will easily sit or trade Shaw. I do not own him in any of my league but would you start him thinking this could be like Soto or Acuna?

I don’t see the Brewers trading Shaw. They may sit him more this season, once he is truly healthy, and while the Moose is loose, but he’ll be given a lot of rope to work things out. I believe he still has a minors option, but I could be wrong on that. The Brewers are still very high on Shaw.